ATL: BARRY - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z NAM is highly unlikely, but not impossible. IIRC, the NAM was really the only model that was correctly showing Michael becoming a monster. SSTs in the GOMEX are pretty above average right now. This will be a tight, small storm that'll be prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity both up and down. More likely though, shear will be able to keep this one from pulling that type of stunt by ensuring the LLC and MLC struggle somewhat with being vertically stacked.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAM takes it to the middle Texas coast as a moderate to strong Tropical Storm fwiw. I wonder if the NAM takes it more westerly because the system hugs the coast which keeps the storm weaker, it may not feel the trough as much as a stronger system would.

That's what I'm tending to think. It's important to see how far south into the Gulf the system gets over the next few days. A weaker system very well could track farther west.

[Frank P]

3k Nam at 60 hours down to 977 mb just off the SELA Coast, drifting west hugging the coast

[baytownwx]

3Km Nam is quite a bit further north this run.

Meanwhile 18z 12km NAM still takes it to TX. Been pretty consistent in showing this the past several runs...but it is the NAM.

Hey young man, I named my dog NAM. I love him.....and this proves that the models are still all over the place.. and yes it is the NAM!!

The NAM does do a decent job with ridge and trough placements though...

[TheProfessor]

The steering currents on the 3km NAM are definitely weak. The storm tries to go north, but then it drifts westward. The good thing is that the storm doesn't have much precipitation on the northern side, which would be very bad for the La coast. The bad thing is that the storm would slowly be moving allowing it to organize better and for water to pile up. The 3Km Nam would nearly be a worst case scenario for the Texas/La coast, especially if it were overestimating the northerly shear or underestimating how quickly the storm could form a northerly core. Anyways, I wouldn't use the NAM for the track of the storm(Though it might very well be right.) but it's a great mesoscale model so it could be giving us a clue where the storm might form and how the storm may be structured.

[Steve]

Also NAM 18z is running and at 24 hours. Looks like it's showing the circulation coming together.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=24

looks like a coast hugger thru the first 24 hours...

and it hugs the coast all the way to Port O'Connor as NAM doesn't make the northerly connection. Low probability for now, but certainly within the realm of options.

[sphelps8681]

Isn't the NAm Rocks favorite model? Thought I saw that.

[South Texas Storms]

Meanwhile 18z 12km NAM still takes it to TX. Been pretty consistent in showing this the past several runs...but it is the NAM.

Hey young man, I named my dog NAM. I love him.....and this proves that the models are still all over the place.. and yes it is the NAM!!

The NAM does do a decent job with ridge and trough placements though...

Agreed. That's one of the main reasons I look at it. Certainly can't rule out its solution right now.

[wxman57]

The NAM is one of the worst models for TC forecasting, behind the NAVGEM. CMC is a close 3rd.

[jaguars_22]

I remember the NAM doing a heck of a job with harvey!! The 3km NAM was showing the pressures and we all were not believing it until it actually happened... SO i dont discount it

[South Texas Storms]

The NAM is one of the worst models for TC forecasting, behind the NAVGEM. CMC is a close 3rd.

Nah NAVGEM is definitely worse than the NAM. I don't even look at the model because it's hardly ever right.

[Steve]

Isn't the NAm Rocks favorite model? Thought I saw that.

lmao and he hates the Euro

Speaking of the Euro, I don't have access to the rainfall amounts, but it looks like the reference in Bastardi's afternoon update based off the 12z euro is that SE LA and South MS could be looking at a foot and a half to possibly more rain. He's calling for it to be about a 1, but massive rains to the east. Probably will include South AL and then later Arkansas like I mentioned last night. Then, the EC was taking the OK-MO route out. But now, it's slower, and it misses the trough and takes a while to rain on. So again, maybe pay attention if you're in the TN Valley.

Forgot the link to the video:
https://youtu.be/j0AWk_SgKYY

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z NAM is highly unlikely, but not impossible. IIRC, the NAM was really the only model that was correctly showing Michael becoming a monster. SSTs in the GOMEX are pretty above average right now. This will be a tight, small storm that'll be prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity both up and down. More likely though, shear will be able to keep this one from pulling that type of stunt by ensuring the LLC and MLC struggle somewhat with being vertically stacked.

Although, on second thought, the NAM blows up every TC in the Gulf regardless of upper-level conditions. Maybe just a case with Michael of a blind squirrel finding a nut.

[TorSkk]

The NAM is one of the worst models for TC forecasting, behind the NAVGEM. CMC is a close 3rd.

Last year's cat 5 monster Chris, 921 mb

[NDG]

Quickly looking at the NAM, it has had ZERO consistency.

[Steve]

GFS is posting - only out to 6h so far

[TheProfessor]

18z Icon shifted back west some.

[stormlover2013]

Sure did

[TheProfessor]

Icon came in a bit weaker as well 985 vs 976 on the 12z run. Edit: I was actually on the wrong frame, it's 984 vs 974.

[NDG]

Finally starting to see some consistency with the GFS.
18z pretty close to 12z so far.