Texas Summer 2019

[weatherdude1108]

Here I'm thinking it wouldn't rain for another few weeks. Right after I got home at 5pm, we had a heavy thunderstorm with a lot of lightning bolts, and over an inch of rain. Lasted 45 minutes to an hour. 99 to 77 degrees.

[weatherdude1108]

Does anyone know what caused these storms? The NWS here didn't really explain. Existing outflow boundaries? Nice surprise!

[Cpv17]

Here I'm thinking it wouldn't rain for another few weeks. Right after I got home at 5pm, we had a heavy thunderstorm with a lot of lightning bolts, and over an inch of rain. Lasted 45 minutes to an hour. 99 to 77 degrees.

http://i64.tinypic.com/whfqq1.jpg

Awesome! Nice surprise you got there lol

[Haris]

Does anyone know what caused these storms? The NWS here didn't really explain. Existing outflow boundaries? Nice surprise!

Really weird. Storms survived much more E than modeled. Seems like the ridging was much weaker overhead(?) . Welcome surprise though it took 2 hours to get home

[Brent]

GFS is also now bringing the remnants of "Barry" up over DFW early next week, though its slower to arrive/weaker and not nearly as much rain as the Euro but still(it is stronger than prior GFS runs though so maybe trending towards it)

And right after that the Euro shifts east into Louisiana keeping most if not all the rain east

[TheProfessor]

This system is really going to depend on where it begins. The further north it is the more likely it will feel the weakness. The further south it is the more likely the ridge takes it into the Texas coast. All I know is that any storm that hits Louisiana/Northeast Texas/Arkansas will be very bad for the Mississippi, which is still at or above flood stage in many areas. On the other hand a storm that moves into the Texas coast would be hitting areas very susceptible to flooding and would also likely be quite a bit stronger. If I had my way I'd have this storm do a loop and head towards the Atlantic. Unfortunately that doesn't seem likely right now.

[CaptinCrunch]

This system is really going to depend on where it begins. The further north it is the more likely it will feel the weakness. The further south it is the more likely the ridge takes it into the Texas coast. All I know is that any storm that hits Louisiana/Northeast Texas/Arkansas will be very bad for the Mississippi, which is still at or above flood stage in many areas. On the other hand a storm that moves into the Texas coast would be hitting areas very susceptible to flooding and would also likely be quite a bit stronger. If I had my way I'd have this storm do a loop and head towards the Atlantic. Unfortunately that doesn't seem likely right now.

NWS FTW extended outlook on possible tropical system and
its track

Moving into weekend and early next week, confidence really begins
to wane on what will become of the possible tropical system and
its track. Though model variability with this system has improved
in latest runs, slight differences in the track would have quite
the difference in impacts across the area. Models still show this
system moving northward anywhere from the mouth of the Mississippi
River west toward the Golden Triangle region near the Louisiana/
Texas border and up across the Sabine River basin. With this
system still yet to move out over the Gulf of Mexico and NHC
providing their expertise on tracking this system, I plan to
remain very conservative on the forecast and convective rain
chances and possible heavy rainfall. Even with the furthest west
model tracks, the heaviest rains would likely remain east of our
CWA being we would be more in a more subsident area outside of our
eastern counties. The strength of said subsidence off the west
side of any tropical system will depend on the actual intensity
of the system itself.

I will advertise 20%-50% PoP for areas east of I-35/35E at this
time with marginal confidence, while lowering high temperatures
this weekend into Monday down into the 80s across our southeast
counties. The remainder of the CWA should see highs in the lower
to mid 90s continuing. As we move toward the weekend, and NHC
begins providing more support and enhanced tracking of the system,
we will be able to fine tune the forecast with more confidence
regarding impacts, if any at all, to our far east and southeast
counties. Continue to monitor future forecasts closely, especially
if you are planning any travel to areas from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Central Gulf Coast region.

[DonWrk]

Subsidence...not a word I like to hear.

[funster]

Sounds like future Barry will likely act like a moisture magnet and leave us dry and puckered this weekend.

[starsfan65]

Sounds like future Barry will likely act like a moisture magnet and leave us dry and puckered this weekend.

why?

[funster]

Sorry, if poorly worded. I meant if Barry (not yet named) stays east of DFW and pulls the moisture into it leaving us hot and dry.

[weatherdude1108]

Sorry, if poorly worded. I meant if Barry (not yet named) stays east of DFW and pulls the moisture into it leaving us hot and dry.

Yeah, it's better if the storm is weaker (tropical depression or wave) as far as moisture. It it's stronger, it sucks out all the moisture around it, especially on the west side. Then those of us on the western periphery of it feel like a hot desert (subsidence).

Tropical Storm Lee in early September 2011 was east of us, creating gusty winds, which caused a transmission line in the forest to spark, igniting the infamous wildfires in Bastrop. Of course we were coming out of an incredible prolonged death ridge and record heat also. I despite subsidence.

[South Texas Storms]

Unfortunately the trends today with future Barry are east. I hope we can get some rain with a weak cold front coming down over the next few days. Because if not, we look to enter into another hot and dry pattern this weekend. Ugh.

[Tireman4]

Unfortunately the trends today with future Barry are east. I hope we can get some rain with a weak cold front coming down over the next few days. Because if not, we look to enter into another hot and dry pattern this weekend. Ugh.

Well, you know the model wars will continue.......now...Fall is coming young man...the days are getting shorter...

[rwfromkansas]

Seems very hard to get tropical systems to go through DFW. They either go mostly east or rarely west.

[Haris]

I remember in Harvey,60 hours out, euro had Louisiana but it ended up being central Texas coast.

Point is, more waffling can happen.

Tho models have trended stronger with the e coast trof, if the circulation forms more S and if the trof moves quickly away, it might get under the steering of the 4 corners ridge and impact TX like some eps members have, stay alert

[Ptarmigan]

I remember in Harvey,60 hours out, euro had Louisiana but it ended up being central Texas coast.

Point is, more waffling can happen.

Tho models have trended stronger with the e coast trof, if the circulation forms more S and if the trof moves quickly away, it might get under the steering of the 4 corners ridge and impact TX like some eps members have, stay alert

So very true.

[Brent]

The ukmet hits Galveston(and as a significant hurricane at that) so we definitely arent out of it yet

[Cpv17]

The ukmet hits Galveston(and as a significant hurricane at that) so we definitely arent out of it yet

Did you see this “new” 18z Euro run?

[Brent]

The ukmet hits Galveston(and as a significant hurricane at that) so we definitely arent out of it yet

Did you see this “new” 18z Euro run?

Yeah if it doesnt get picked up quickly its coming to Texas probably