Texas Summer 2019

[Brent]

Well it's a good thing I helped FWD with their tropical storm warning system last year. They may actually need it.

honestly I'm pretty surprised at the turn of events tbh(I was really skeptical of the western solutions)... but the GFS was also into Texas

50 mph gusts in the metro on the Euro Higher to the east also this run would keep our rain on the weekend streak in tact

[weatherdude1108]

With a really wet spring and early summer, we can’t even buy a drop of rain around here now. Everything is turning brown and crispy pretty quickly.

The radar looked like storms were in your area earlier this evening. Can you confirm? Just curious.

Maybe I should complain more often. We’ve had a few rounds come through with on and off again rain. I’ve picked up around 1” so far out of it all.

Whatever works I guess.

[Ntxw]

Well it's a good thing I helped FWD with their tropical storm warning system last year. They may actually need it.

honestly I'm pretty surprised at the turn of events tbh(I was really skeptical of the western solutions)... but the GFS was also into Texas

50 mph gusts in the metro on the Euro Higher to the east also this run would keep our rain on the weekend streak in tact

We can go without a hurricane along the coast, but a weak depression to weak TS would help inland areas. We do need to rain to keep the heat in check.

In other seasons I would note gulf systems is no good for us, but in July its going to be hot and dry anyway. Might as well get some rain out of something weak.

[funster]

Future possible Barry could come see the debris piles left in Dallas by the early June storm that the city is in no hurry to pick up.

[Haris]

100% ntwx

Cyclones are followed by dry conditions for weeks here in TX it appears but we have literally no rain chances anytime soon otherwise. So let’s get this storm here.
Also it’ll break the heat up for a bit.

[Brent]

100% ntwx

Cyclones are followed by dry conditions for weeks here in TX it appears but we have literally no rain chances anytime soon otherwise. So let’s get this storm here.
Also it’ll break the heat up for a bit.

I'm all for it definitely

I'd even take just some clouds to keep temps down

[weatherdude1108]

Storms firing off to my west and northwest in the hill country. The KXAN future model on my phone app. brings them into the Austin area around 4pm. The NWS is unsure. I would like for them to make it. Would catch a break from this heat and keep the greenery happy.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 081745
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR skies will prevail through the afternoon hours with light south
and southeast winds across South Central Texas. Isolated
thunderstorms have developed from KJCT (Junction) to north of KBMQ
(Burnet) and further north. High resolution models continues to
develop shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the
Edwards Plateau. The models are mixed on how far east this activity
reaches before dissipating this evening. A few do bring thunderstorm
activity relatively close to AUS. Have continued to leave out
precipitation for this TAF package, but there is a low confidence
chance of VCTS late this afternoon and early this afternoon around
AUS as storms move through the Hill Country. The rest of the TAF
sites will remain dry. Have also left out MVFR mentioned for Tuesday
morning in the TAFs. With the ridge still positioned over South Texas
we should have light winds and conditions similar to this morning
where we only saw very brief pockets of MVFR cigs. Think this will be
the case again tomorrow with some brief drops to MVFR possible, but
as a whole VFR conditions will continue.

[bubba hotep]

Some pretty good rains off to the West of DFW last night and this morning. Also, Flying out of DFW and it's pretty crazy how green everything is!

[Brent]

The Euro again has a hurricane near Beaumont and then brings the system over DFW next Monday morning

[bubba hotep]

The Euro again has a hurricane near Beaumont and then brings the system over DFW next Monday morning

I wonder if we will see some "brown ocean" influence on this given how wet everything is?

[weatherdude1108]

View of cloud tops to my west and northwest from my office.

[weatherdude1108]

It's close! I'll report later if we got anything or not.

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
333 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

TXZ172-173-192-082130-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-Travis TX-
333 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WILLIAMSON...NORTHWESTERN
TRAVIS AND BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Watson to near Bertram to near Granite
Shoals. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown, Burnet, Marble Falls, Bertram,
Serenada, Leander, Lago Vista, Granite Shoals, Horseshoe Bay,
Meadowlakes, Liberty Hill, Jarrell, Florence, Weir, Inks Lake State
Park, Georgetown Dam, Watson and Lake Victor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 9783 3087 9763 3081 9748 3062 9750
3047 9786 3052 9835 3078 9838 3103 9813
3103 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 261DEG 17KT 3098 9796 3075 9799 3060 9834

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion regarding 92L

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): High pressure will be in
control to start the long term period. The elephant in the room of
course is the evolution of Invest 92L, forecast to drop southward
out of Georgia and into the gulf early on in the forecast period.

The upper level steering currents are very interesting as a strong
594-598dam dome of high pressure will be present across the inter
mountain west. Models have all shifted in some way or another to
the left of where they were at this point yesterday. Not
surprising again given the strong high pressure that will build
eastward on the north side of the tropical low.

Where it goes is really depending on many variables including 1)
how far south it initially can go before it begins to move
west/west northwest and 2) how much strengthening is involved.
Lets not forget the upper level trough pattern across the Great
Lakes. If these dig just a bit with a bit deeper system, the low
may find the weakness and continue northeastward similar to the
previous models from yesterday.

That said, at this point we can`t rule anything out. In fact, the
system isn`t even over water yet so we`ll take a hurry up and wait
approach and see what additional forecast model runs suggest
before getting too concerned...though again the easterly or east
northeast flow aloft from the dome of high pressure upstream is
particularly interesting.

With the guidance suggesting a more westerly track, did include
20 POPs for the long term, however, confidence is very low at
this time. If a track more to the right of the general consensus
is realized, we will probably remain very dry and very hot with
subsidence present. Regardless, we`ll continue to monitor the
situation.

[Brent]

The Euro has basically double the average July rainfall next Sunday-Monday for DFW

If only

[rwfromkansas]

Temp dropped to 85 after a 5-minute rain. Nice. Now..80 and still dropping. What a nice July day.

[JDawg512]

Hopefully these storms will make it over the Rain Cave. I'm optimistic but will wait and see.

I'm still around....

[Cpv17]

Well then... okay

That didn’t escalate quickly at all

[funster]

Weird rain blob stuck in west Fort Worth. Come on. Keep going... At least there b clouds.

[JDawg512]

Severe Storm Warning for Travis County including the City of Austin. I was able to get some great video footage of the boiling clouds over the Rain Cave, just gorgeous! So far nothing major but some wind (below severe criteria at least in my area) and some nice rain.

[Haris]

Got 1.1” of rain !!