Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[Nimbus]

I'm still tracking the triple point vortex as it moves down the Mississippi/Alabama border, looks like it will enter the gulf west of Pensacola. Any depression formation is likely to occur under the heaviest convection at the triple point of the occluded front later this week. Seems reasonable to track the vortex to gain some clues about where the models will be initialized. Current forecast for low shear and warm SST's make the upward revision to 50% seem reasonable.

IF the system takes longer than expected to develop or forms further SW down in the gulf the remains of the first front off the east coast won't pull it back inland. Haven't seen this in the models yet, but its a bad scenario that isn't out of the question.

[rolltide]

I think we'll have the models shift to the west then the east then back to the west and so forth until they zero in on a solution. This seems to happen a lot when disturbances are in the gulf with uncertain steering.

[Aric Dunn]

very few of the EPS members cut back to the big bend area now. big shift west in all the other members from yesterday.

[NDG]

So the 12z Euro operational run is fairly much a split up the middle between the two camps.

[TheProfessor]

That's a pretty significant shift west for the EPS.

[rolltide]

It looks to me like the upper vortex is going to drop into the gulf around Mobile. Any models showing this? If so, what do they do with it?

[chaser1]

Anyone here monitoring Huntsville buoys for wind shift, surface pressures and wave heights?

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1147962397459722240

[SFLcane]

[quote="wxman57"]I'm not buying the EC's solution. It's certainly the outlier, unless you count the ICON, which I've never trusted. I see that the 12Z UKMET has a TS moving inland near Panama City, FL Saturday afternoon. I've trusted the EC before in this kind of a situation and it was wrong. More of a gut feeling, for now. Maybe a >50% chance of a TD in the NE Gulf Thu/Fri. Could be a weak TS moving into the FL Panhandle Sat.[/

Isn’t that what’s been panned out by the models anyway? Realistically I don’t think anyone is expecting more then your early July ugly sheared tc.

[cycloneye]

Video discussion from Mark Sudduth. (hurricanetrack)

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1147960395325423620

[Dean4Storms]

This reminds me of Michael before development when most guidance barely developed it and the spread was everywhere from Tampa to LA. We're still 4-5 days out or so from actual TC development, lots can change.

[LarryWx]

I would be surprised if this wasn't overdone, but verbatim the Euro has quite the windstorm extending well into inland Louisiana.

https://i.imgur.com/4yaWAiP.png

I don't know the reason. But for the strength of the low depicted, the Euro has tended to significantly overdo the well inland winds since I've seen these maps posted in recent years.

[NDG]

This reminds me of Michael before development when most guidance barely developed it and the spread was everywhere from Tampa to LA. We're still 4-5 days out or so from actual TC development, lots can change.

And that many thought it was going to be a sheared mess as it was to approach the coast

[Kingarabian]

This reminds me of Michael before development when most guidance barely developed it and the spread was everywhere from Tampa to LA. We're still 4-5 days out or so from actual TC development, lots can change.

And that many thought it was going to be a sheared mess as it was to approach the coast

A shear-less GOM is like the WPAC.

[NDG]

I would be surprised if this wasn't overdone, but verbatim the Euro has quite the windstorm extending well into inland Louisiana.

https://i.imgur.com/4yaWAiP.png

I don't know the reason. But for the strength of the low depicted, the Euro has tended to significantly overdo the well inland winds since I've seen these maps posted in recent years.

It shows better upper level conditions as it makes landfall thus continue strengthening and probably because of the fact that it would be making landfall over flat marshy/swampy area just east of Lafayette, if it was to be correct with the track.

[Aric Dunn]

I would be surprised if this wasn't overdone, but verbatim the Euro has quite the windstorm extending well into inland Louisiana.

https://i.imgur.com/4yaWAiP.png

I don't know the reason. But for the strength of the low depicted, the Euro has tended to significantly overdo the well inland winds since I've seen these maps posted in recent years.

It shows better upper level conditions as it makes landfall thus continue strengthening and probably because of the fact that it would be making landfall over flat marshy/swampy area just east of Lafayette, if it was to be correct with the track.

Looking at the Euro in more detail. the environment is very favorable throughout.... there does appear to be some dry air on the north side.. likely getting dragged down along with it. so we will have to see how that pans out. because there is nothing holding it back otherwise...

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS:
- out of ~51 members, close to 20 get to sub 1000 either in Gulf or after coming inland
- I counted 8 that get to below 992 either in Gulf or after coming inland; 4 of those 8 hit between central LA and central TX coasts; other 4 hit mainly in MS/AL/W FL panhandle
- Landfalls between Thu 7/11 and Mon 7/14 with 7/12-13 dominating
- Mean heaviest rainfall has also shifted west from the 0Z's FL Big Bend to Gainesville, FL, to SE portions of GA/SC/NC to the 12Z's more spread out from FL Big Bend to NE TX and then coming inland with an impressive 1.5-2" mean centered on ATL-AHN -GSP-ASH


Meanwhile, I've still not seen even one GEFS or GEPS member get down to 1003 or lower in the Gulf! What a dichotomy!

[Steve]

Nam still near shore but closer to LA than 12z run. I’ve only seen gfs out to 60 and it appears to be a little faster but I didn’t compensate for the 6 hour interval so maybe not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0718&fh=60

[Aric Dunn]

18 z gfs is all over the place with center reformations.. one of them is like 300 miles east lol though still quitr a bit west overall compared to 12 z

[Kingarabian]

18 z gfs is all over the place with center reformations.. one of them is like 300 miles east lol though still quitr a bit west overall compared to 12 z

Probably why it hasn't begun to bomb out by now.