Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[psyclone]

I would lean toward a right loaded QPF bomb with most of the rain dumping on florida. Most of these systems end up weak and right and that's what is probably most likely here. If it shakes out that way it will tame the extremely warm water temps in our part of the world which is usually what eventually happens when they get out of bounds.

[KimmieLa]

Also, to complicate matters further, the potential system could get stuck in a COL, an area of weak steering, for much of this upcoming week. This system indeed could meander around in Apalachee Bay /Northeast GOM region for most of the week. Could see flood potential for some areas as the week progresses

Complex situation. It is quite possible this system may not get far enough south into the GOM to develop. The vorticity could be so elongated in which it can not consolidate a center and also due to land proximity. Lots to look for in the next couple of days for sure!

This very same thing happened in August 2016. Southern Louisiana got hammered with rain. Over 100K homes flooded, including mine. I pray for this vorticity to take a hike and head on out to the Atlantic. No one deserves a flooded home.

[Aric Dunn]

I would lean toward a right loaded QPF bomb with most of the rain dumping on florida. Most of these systems end up weak and right and that's what is probably most likely here. If it shakes out that way it will tame the extremely warm water temps in our part of the world which is usually what eventually happens when they get out of bounds.

unfortunately that requires strong SW shear. we dont have that in the case.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS shows landfall as a 1002mb TS Friday in the big bend of Florida

[Siker]

12z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.1N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 120 27.8N 86.1W 1003 40
0000UTC 13.07.2019 132 28.2N 86.2W 997 40
1200UTC 13.07.2019 144 29.4N 86.0W 991 58

[Aric Dunn]

The 12zGFS shows landfall as a 1002mb TS Friday in the big bend of Florida

it also shows numerous center reformations.. so not much we can take out of it except the synoptic set up.

[NDG]

12z GFS is a little stronger but it still persistent with its track back up towards FL's big bend area Friday morning.

[stormlover2013]

Where does Ukmet show ?

[Siker]

Where does Ukmet show ?

Moving north towards PCB area at end of run.

[ColdMiser123]

UK is still offshore at the last set of coordinates at 144 hours.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.1N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 120 27.8N 86.1W 1003 40
0000UTC 13.07.2019 132 28.2N 86.2W 997 40
1200UTC 13.07.2019 144 29.4N 86.0W 991 58

[Aric Dunn]

UK is still offshore at the last set of coordinates at 144 hours.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.1N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 120 27.8N 86.1W 1003 40
0000UTC 13.07.2019 132 28.2N 86.2W 997 40
1200UTC 13.07.2019 144 29.4N 86.0W 991 58

that is 12 mb stronger than the 00z run..

and much farther west.

[ColdMiser123]

UK is still offshore at the last set of coordinates at 144 hours.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.1N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 120 27.8N 86.1W 1003 40
0000UTC 13.07.2019 132 28.2N 86.2W 997 40
1200UTC 13.07.2019 144 29.4N 86.0W 991 58

that is 12 mb stronger than the 00z run..

That is also closer to the Euro progression. GFS is already well inland at that time while the Euro is still offshore.

[ColdMiser123]

Canadian seems pretty close to the GFS looking at the coarse resolution WSI maps.

[Aric Dunn]

Canadian seems pretty close to the GFS looking at the coarse resolution WSI maps.

also has a bunch of reformations. but it is drifting west at 90 hrs.

[ColdMiser123]

UK maps with 500 hPa height anomalies should be available on TrueWx within an hour.

[gatorcane]

I would lean toward a right loaded QPF bomb with most of the rain dumping on florida. Most of these systems end up weak and right and that's what is probably most likely here. If it shakes out that way it will tame the extremely warm water temps in our part of the world which is usually what eventually happens when they get out of bounds.

Yep a right loaded QPF bomb looks likely. Latest GFS has that QPF swath (20+ inches of rain ) just offshore, any further east and the west coast of Florida from Tampa north would be in the bullseye. My guess is that this ends up further west than the GFS shows and more of a panhandle issue:

[stormlover2013]

Canadian seems pretty close to the GFS looking at the coarse resolution WSI maps.

also has a bunch of reformations. but it is drifting west at 90 hrs.

Lol poor cmc and gfs lol, I mean let’s be honest here cmc is usually 98 percent wrong, if euro shows same thing again I’m sticking with euro

[Aric Dunn]

Big change in thinking from the UKMET. it even exits the coast farther west. very interesting. and actually, this is a very reasonable solution.

[GCANE]

Latest CIMSS analysis showing a strengthening 850mb vort on the GA / AL Border.

Can see a spin on MIMIC TPW
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

12Z GFS seems to be underestimating it at 000.

[stormlover2013]

Big change in thinking from the UKMET. it even exits the coast farther west. very interesting. and actually, this is a very reasonable solution.

https://i.ibb.co/g9kL0gN/UKMET-17-km-Gulf-of-Mexico-MSLP-1.gif

Aric, I like the euro and icon right now and ukmet will get in line