Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[La Breeze]

Is this similar to the MCS that flooded out Baton Rogue in August 2016? I remember some models were trying to bring it over water and making it a TC. I also remember Alyono saying that if it managed to hit GOM waters it would've became a hurricane quite easily.

I certainly hope that this is not the same type of situation - please no.

[USTropics]

Below is a break down of all 50 members (plus master and control) of the ECMWF and its ensembles. There are quite a few members with multiple landfalls (i.e. initial landfall in GOM, moves up EC, second landfall in Carolinas); I will mainly focus on initial landfalls. There are a wide range of possible scenarios, from Texas all the way up to the NE coastline (11 members show no development).

East Coast: 9/52 (member04, member11, member14, member15, member16, member20, member34, member09, member49)


Florida: 13/52 (control, master, member01, member12, member19, member26, member28, member30, member31,
member32, member39, member42, member44)


Northern GOM: 5/52 (member02, member10, member25, member33, member37)


Texas: 9/52 (member07, member08, member13, member17, member24, member35, member47, member48, member50)


OTS: 5/52 (member03, member05, member06, member23, member27)


No Development: 11/52 (member18, member21, member22, member29, member36, member38, member40, member41, member43, member45, member46)

[Monsoonjr99]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1147636051533541377

I'd consider Debby 2012 an analog if this uncertainty remains.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1147636051533541377

I'd consider Debby 2012 an analog if this uncertainty remains.

Debby 2012 might be the perfect analog except the origin of the catalyst. Stronger goes west with more ridging, weaker goes east with more troughiness.

[TheProfessor]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1147636051533541377

I'd consider Debby 2012 an analog if this uncertainty remains.

Debby 2012 might be the perfect analog except the origin of the catalyst. Stronger goes west with more ridging, weaker goes east with more troughiness.

Oh My goodness Debby brings back memories. I was at a NOAA weather camp in Jackson Mississippi at the time and they had told parent that they had plans set in place in case Debby came up and hit like some of the models were showing. Then it ended up taking the right path and everything was fine. If I remember correctly it was Isaac later that year that did the opposite of Debby.

[USTropics]

00z GFS running, appears to be a bit more organized at the 850mb levels @ 114 hours:

[USTropics]

Still elongated with multiple areas of vorticity, but there's a bit more of a vort signature to work with this run:

[USTropics]

This run is also much slower on swinging this down into the GOM:

[USTropics]

GFS tries to consolidate at the low-levels, but not enough time over the GOM:

[Aric Dunn]

This run is also much slower on swinging this down into the GOM:

https://i.imgur.com/2z9HPGv.gif

yeah. it is still elongating the vorticity. causing all sorts of steering problems. just need to keep a watch on the actual structure of the system tomorrow and monday to see what it does.

[Aric Dunn]

00Z Icon is not good...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=-72

[TheStormExpert]

00Z Icon is not good...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=-72

Judging by recent memory the ICON is no better than the CMC.

[TheStormExpert]

Really it’s hard to say what will happen. What’s more frustrating is that this is less than a week from developing and the models have no clue on where and how strong this may be and if it develops at all. Could be nothing or could be a hurricane into the Gulf Coast, only time will tell!

[Aric Dunn]

00Z Icon is not good...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=-72

Judging by recent memory the ICON is no better than the CMC.

Trends are important in all models.

besides nothing even needs to threaten the panama city area is all.

[USTropics]

CMC coming in stronger this run and favoring the GOM (past runs have favored an EC solution):

[stormhunter7]

Didn't the CMC get an upgrade last week? If so, this could be a good test?? Our German friends don't need to scare NW Florida like that in 00z ICON! lol. 100mph gusts in PC area.... Not much trees left to blow or break. Busy week ahead.

[ncforecaster89]

Really it’s hard to say what will happen. What’s more frustrating is that this is less than a week from developing and the models have no clue on where and how strong this may be and if it develops at all. Could be nothing or could be a hurricane into the Gulf Coast, only time will tell!

The main reason being that TC genesis originating from a trough of LP over land is far more complex than model guidance attempting to handle TC formation taking place over the GOM. As the aforementioned trough gets closer to the NE GOM and a prospective area of LP develops...the models should have a much better grasp on its ultimate viability as a potential TC, as well as its future track.

Right now, as you alluded to,, it's still too early to know if any TC genesis will actually materialize. Thankfully, there's plenty of time to monitor this system.

Should add that potential TC formation from this type of non-tropical origin isn't as anomalous as some might think, as hurricane Danny of 1997 developed in a very similar manner.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro bullish once again.

[Steve]

00z Euro bullish once again.

Yeah it brings up a strengthening system maybe across Plaquemines and St Bernard Pariahes and then Hancock/Harrison Counties, MS. Not a major on the lower resolution, but maybe formidable? Icon/German I think is over toward Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Co’s, FL. CMC and GFs are mostly east of there. Looks like NE Gulf maybe under what appears to be the setup would be at most risk (say LA/MS border to Big Bend). Could be that trends take it one way or the other from there. But we might have something to watch developing on our doorstep over the next 5-6 days.

[Steve]

Also, if it could get to a Cat 1, I’m not sure what the last hurricane would have been to hit the North Gulf in July, but I was thinking maybe Dennis?