Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[Aric Dunn]

This is new. looks like a 1/3 of the solutions have a stronger ridge in place. things could get interesting if that happens. notice the numerous strong cat 2 hurricane members.....

[Sambucol]

Aric,
Does that gif suggest just a possible track or is it showing the possible tropical system will split into 2 separate ones? I’m in Texas. Is there a ridge that may build in and push the track more toward Texas? Thanks.

[OuterBanker]

Watching and grading.
I’m watching what might happen in the Gulf as the rest of us are. But my main interest is in how the models are performing. So far, the Euro is its usual consistent self. Right or wrong at least it’s been consistent. The Canadian has also been consistent. The GFS has been all over the place. That has me concerned because it can’t seem to get it together yet (at least the phantoms have seemed to have stopped though).
Ultimately, I think the most important time and reason for the models is the 120 (5 days). Accurate predictions at that time period is important for both preparation and logistics. It allows evacuation in a timely matter without panic and enough time for logistics (It’s why there are extra pallets of water and beer in the grocery and generators at the local Lowe's).
So far, it’s looks like next Saturday is the time frame for a Miss or Fl panhandle landfall on the Euro and GEM (Oddly the GFS has a low form Thurs off Ga and head west on the 12z 7/6).
The 120 should be Tuesday. Let’s see how they do.

[NDG]

Just a reminder that some of the warmest SSTs over the western Hemisphere are currently over the NE GOM.
A couple of offshore buoys are actually reporting 31C SSTs.

[Kingarabian]

Aric,
Does that gif suggest just a possible track or is it showing the possible tropical system will split into 2 separate ones? I’m in Texas. Is there a ridge that may build in and push the track more toward Texas? Thanks.

Possible tracks from each individual EPS member.

[KatDaddy]

Something I do not see very often from the NHC. A trough of low pressure well inland over W KY, TN, and MS has been flagged by the NHC this afternoon. Potential development will be possible as this trough moves SE into the NE GOM at the end of the upcoming week. We have plenty of time to watch what could become TS Barry through next week. No need for concern during the next several days. Again this is a reminder to be weather aware and prepared when it comes to the tropics. As I have said many times “It only takes 1 in your area to make it an active Hurricane Season”.

Everyone along the N GOM from TX to FL should remain tropical weather aware next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

Is this similar to the MCS that flooded out Baton Rogue in August 2016? I remember some models were trying to bring it over water and making it a TC. I also remember Alyono saying that if it managed to hit GOM waters it would've became a hurricane quite easily.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we have discussed that earlier NDG. Personally, I am a bit concerned looking at sea surface temps near the Loop Current right near 90 degrees. The upper level environment, if it is conducive, and if mid level continental dry air does not get entrained into this potential system, like Edouard in 2008, then we may have a potential big problem in the Northeast GOM next week. We will know more by Monday, but to me, I would not be surprised in the least if the models become more aggressive with development. Intensity is never easy to forecast of course with tropical cyclones. However, a powder keg of very warm bath water awaits in the GOM. The main ingredients look to be in place for this potential system this upcoming week , if UL conditions stay favorable, and if the disturbance gets far enough south into the Gulf. Interesting times potentially ahead for the Gulf Coast region.

[cycloneye]

Here is who did the TWO.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1147594896569700352

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/1147610393776443392




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1147611945433993217

[Siker]

Feel like we had an invest of this sort last year during the same week of July. That one did not make it over water long enough to get designated.

Yeah, found it. Got mentioned in the outlook but wasn’t an invest. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119661

[cycloneye]

Dang,18z GFS a little bit more bullish.

[Kingarabian]

Dang,18z GFS more bullish.

Through 120 hours, it has quite a bit more vorticity over the NGOM compared to the past few runs:

[cycloneye]

Here is a loop from 120 thru 180 hours.

[gatorcane]

Upper-level conditions looks very favorable:

[Aric Dunn]

Key thing to note from 18z gfs... the ridging is stronger. Similar to the Eps members

[Kingarabian]

Also it's not moving too fast. Might be a huge flooding problem.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1147636051533541377

[Nimbus]

Key thing to note from 18z gfs... the ridging is stronger. Similar to the Eps members

And typically these systems develop slowly and sometimes drift SW a little more than modeled chasing the triple point of an occluded front.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move southward toward the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low pressure area could form in
a few days. Some gradual development of this system is then possible
while it meanders near the northern Gulf Coast through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky