Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[cycloneye]

Edouard 2008.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1147562636558721026

[northjaxpro]

It's worth mentioning that even though OHC maps never depict good warmth over the NE Gulf owing to very shallow waters it is an absolute hot tub out there thanks to our southeast ridge. In my years here the waters are as persistently warm as I can recall. If a system forms heat potential won't be lacking. This same phenomenon was at work last September when our ridge roasted us in anomalous heat yielding exceptionally warm waters and Michael took advantage of those temps and gained strength right until landfall even as it passed over shallow shelf waters.

A very astute observation made Psyclone.

[StruThiO]

ya, the loop current is

[MGC]

you dont see that too often.. lol

Point of origin somewhere around...Graceland?

Should name it Elvis if it develops. Yup, don't see a yellow X in the middle of America often. This one will be interesting to watch......MGC

[NDG]

So far it looks like the 12z Euro still wants to develop the disturbance over the NE GOM.

[TheProfessor]

I had been watching that rain the GFS has been showing over the northern Gulf for the last few days now wondering if something tropical could develop. I had been busy with family so I wasn't paying too much attention. We were just down in Gulf Shores, Al for the 4th. All of my extended family just left today, but my parents and I will be watching this closely from the North Shore of Lake Pontchartrain.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1147566150055800832

[NDG]

A little weaker through Thursday morning than on last night's run.

[TheProfessor]

12z Euro is definitely weaker, but it also looks to be further south this run. Edit: I should say weaker through hour 144.

[Aric Dunn]

12z still inline for development. Just a little faster with the turn to the nw which brings it into higher shear. The farther south it stays and slower it moves will be crucial. Low shear fsrther south.

[NDG]

As always is the case when the Euro and GFS are so apart on their initial solutions they have started come together, the 12z GFS is starting to show some weak development/disturbance across the NE GOM while the latest 12z Euro is still showing development but of only a weak Tropical Storm.
We still need to keep an eye on it, any system that starts in the GOM can definitely strengthen all the sudden because of the very warm SSTs and moist environment, if mid level continental dry air stays away from it.
I really don't see any big problems with shear. A large upper level High is over the Big area of FL that is forecasted to stay in place over the north central gulf coast the next few days and eventually move slowly westward, an upper level environment that it could take advantage of to intensify.

[wxman57]

Only a 1000 mb low in the 12Z Euro. Up considerably from some earlier runs. I suppose if the NHC can call Cosme a TS (or Andrea a STS), then this will be a hurricane...

[drezee]

Only a 1000 mb low in the 12Z Euro. Up considerably from some earlier runs. I suppose if the NHC can call Cosme a TS (or Andrea a STS), then this will be a hurricane...

990mb or 1000mb...it would still be a coup for the upgraded Euro. If it verifies, then king status will only be strengthened...

[TheStormExpert]

Only a 1000 mb low in the 12Z Euro. Up considerably from some earlier runs. I suppose if the NHC can call Cosme a TS (or Andrea a STS), then this will be a hurricane...

The Euro has been all over the place with intensity, I’d take anything the newly upgraded Euro shows with a HUGE grain of salt.

[NDG]

Only a 1000 mb low in the 12Z Euro. Up considerably from some earlier runs. I suppose if the NHC can call Cosme a TS (or Andrea a STS), then this will be a hurricane...

The Euro has been all over the place with intensity, I’d take anything the newly upgraded Euro shows with a HUGE grain of salt.

Yep, the Euro has been also all over the EPAC's systems so far this season. I would take anything past its 72-96 hr with a grain a salt, it could be either too strong or too weak at this point.
Lets not forget how aggressive it was with 91L a few weeks ago over the BOC.

[floridasun78]

gfs have this low reform off GA move into jacksonille area on july 17 this upgrade gfs

[Kingarabian]

Only a 1000 mb low in the 12Z Euro. Up considerably from some earlier runs. I suppose if the NHC can call Cosme a TS (or Andrea a STS), then this will be a hurricane...

The Euro has been all over the place with intensity, I’d take anything the newly upgraded Euro shows with a HUGE grain of salt.

Yep, the Euro has been also all over the EPAC's systems so far this season. I would take anything past its 72-96 hr with a grain a salt, it could be either too strong or too weak at this point.
Lets not forget how aggressive it was with 91L a few weeks ago over the BOC.

I was going to post this in the Global Models Discussion thread in reply to your post. This has been the case this season. In fact, the GFS did a much better job on Alvin and Barbara.

[floridasun78]

here gfs at 312 hour

[NDG]

here gfs at 312 hour https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019070612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

Yes I saw this on the 12z GFS run, that it has the disturbance move inland across SE LA next weekend than it splits the energy with a piece of it go towards the Carolinas and into the Atlantic to then make another loop back towards the northern gulf coast in the 12-14 day range.

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFS is showing a potential trough split scenario. First disturbance/potential tropical entity could form in Northeast GOM by middle of next week, then move inland late next week. Another piece of energy along the trough could form/split off the South Carolina/ GA coast by 7/18 and possibly develop and will move west as the Upper Level ridge builds back across the North Florida region by 7/19.