EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro ends with this strong Barbara not far from Hilo.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/UVwjUA1.png[url]

Pretty dangerous setup here. Note this is long range, but high resolution Euro starting at hour 192, shows Barbara beginning to take a more WNW track, and by 240 it's nearly a NW heading. Also has the pressure @ 966mb at 240 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Still too broad. Probably not yet classifiable.

[Kingarabian]

Still too broad. Probably not yet classifiable.

Off NotSparta's website:

Not there yet.

[cycloneye]

Did that ASCAT missed? Best Track was at 9.2N-105.7W.

[Kingarabian]

Did that ASCAT missed? Best Track was at 9.2N-105.7W.

I think it passed about 2 hours before the 18z BT.

[Kingarabian]

Did that ASCAT missed? Best Track was at 9.2N-105.7W.

I think it passed about 2 hours before the 18z BT.

Off the monsoon trough, if the GFS is right, there may be two Vort's spawned that will eventually combine to become Barbara.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS is running. Doesn’t do too much for the next few days; only gradual development.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear values probably inflated with the way the GFS is handling the voracity.

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942019 06/29/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 45 51 53 54 52 50 48
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 45 51 53 54 52 50 48
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 10 16 18 11 1 6 7 14 14 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 5 6 6 0 1 -3 -5 -5 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 339 345 352 330 302 309 333 8 217 261 239 250 220
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.0 28.1 27.8 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 158 160 164 156 146 143 133 136 135 135
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 69 68 67 67 70 68 59 58 56 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 7 16 16 4 -1 4 15 26 43 54 55
200 MB DIV 109 108 101 134 153 88 88 91 135 141 70 49 42
700-850 TADV -12 -15 -20 -14 -14 -17 -16 -12 -2 -4 0 5 10
LAND (KM) 1027 1023 1057 1105 1149 1304 1381 1467 1570 1669 1803 1914 2020
LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5
LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.9 108.3 109.6 111.0 113.9 116.8 119.3 121.7 123.7 125.7 127.5 129.4
STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 31 38 42 53 33 25 17 11 10 3 4 4 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 26. 28. 29. 27. 25. 23.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 105.7

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 5.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 5.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.2% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 23.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.5% 47.6% 24.3% 16.7% 4.3% 17.6% 15.3% 21.1%
Bayesian: 0.6% 21.2% 20.4% 4.9% 0.2% 3.6% 3.4% 2.7%
Consensus: 2.4% 32.3% 22.8% 7.2% 1.5% 14.4% 13.9% 8.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is running. Doesn’t do too much for the next few days; only gradual development.

It could be right because CIMSS does show high shear to the NW of the system. The key thing here is how fast it can develop and build an anti-cyclone. With the way things are progressing, I doubt it will take long to develop.

[Kingarabian]

So the 12z and 18z GFS show the area west of 94E briefly spinning up and becomes a TC that may over take 94E... That's why future Barbra or potentially Cosme take that long to develop on its runs:


Note that the Euro, UKMET, ICON, and CMC do not show this happening.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles to the
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. The associated showers
and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better organized,
and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or so
while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Ntxw]

[Kingarabian]

Low level structure looks pretty good on microwave:

[cycloneye]

SSD up to 1.5.

30/0000 UTC 9.9N 106.6W T1.5/1.5 94E -- East Pacific

TXPZ21 KNES 300016
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 9.9N

D. 106.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET
IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 9.8°N 106.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[cycloneye]

SHIP and HWRF more bullish in this run.

[Kingarabian]

00z Best Track:

Location: 9.8°N 106.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

I think with this center fix I was looking at the MLC on that F16 SSMIs pass.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET ensembles in agreement that future Barbara will be long track system and will head towards the CPAC:


12Z EPS same thing:

[cycloneye]

These large monsoon type systems take more time to develop however,once it begins is liftoff to be a strong one but as I post this,it looks very close to TD.Let's see in the next few hours we have a new ASCAT pass and it nails the area and not miss.

[Ntxw]

These large monsoon type systems take more time to develop however,once it begins is liftoff to be a strong one but as I post this,it looks very close to TD.Let's see in the next few hours we have a new ASCAT pass and it nails the area and not miss.

The original thought guidance was to get designation Sunday evening or Monday morning so it's still on target. The broad structure got well organized a little more than we though starting this morning. Once it gets going though we'll be watching it for a long time fireworks and all.