2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[NotSparta]

Looks like neutral or Nina this year.

Will be difficult to swing all the way to La Niña this yr, but neutral looks pretty likely

[crownweather]

Looks like neutral or Nina this year.

Will be difficult to swing all the way to La Niña this yr, but neutral looks pretty likely

Much different than what the ENSO models showed back in late Winter and early Spring. While I didn't buy into the full-blown El Nino forecast by the ECMWF, I did think that at least a weak El NIno was probable during the Hurricane Season. Now, I'm not so sure of that and like you, I think a warm neutral seems pretty probable now.

[gatorcane]

Pretty warm anomalies everywhere in this image especially around Florida and the Bahamas. This setup suggests there may be above average activity yet again for this region.

[TheStormExpert]

Pretty warm anomalies everywhere in this image especially around Florida and the Bahamas. This setup suggests there may be above average activity yet again for this region.


https://i.postimg.cc/KcH4vZnd/anoma-6-27-2019.gif

SST's just off Andros Island in the NW Bahamas are quickly approaching 90ºF! If anything were to tap into this region you'd better watch out!

[Chris90]

Regarding the state of ENSO in relation to its potential effects on the ATL season, especially as we draw ever closer to peak season, I think it's important to consider ENSO trend just as much if not more so than what the official ENSO state will be during peak season. I think sometimes people get into the mind state of "La Nina=above average and El Nino=below average" and so they focus on what the official ENSO state will be during peak season. 2005 and 2017 were not official Ninas right off the bat, they trended that way until the trimonthlies officially reflected a Nina.

In 2005, the JJA (June-July-August) trimontly was -0.1. It stayed -0.1 for the next two trimonthlies of JAS and ASO. The La Nina threshold wasn't reached until OND (October-November-December) with a value of -0.6. Activity in 2005 kicked off right at the start and produced 2 majors in July.

2017 was still at warm neutral in JJA as it was trending down and reached Nina threshold in SON with a value of -0.7. Just a quick note, 2017 trended towards Nina faster than 2005 did and ended up peaking stronger than 2005, reaching a value of -1.0, but that season also died off faster than 2005. It really geared up in August with Harvey and produced that prolific and monstrous September, but it didn't continue to produce through October-December nearly the same way 2005 did. 2005 produced a lot more consistently from the very beginning of the season all the way through December, whereas 2017 had a very noticeable peak in August and September. I believe, I may be wrong, but I think September 2017 set a monthly ACE record of something like 175.

So maybe 2005 with the slower and steadier trend downwards to Nina managed to produce a lot more consistently throughout the entire season as opposed to 2017 which trended downwards to Nina faster, but resulted in a very noticeable, but much shorter, peak.

I'm not saying that this automatically means we're doomed to experience another 2005 or 2017, there's many other factors that go into a season. But I do think in regards to ENSO it is a bit of a concerning indicator that we're trending downwards away from Nino, and it doesn't seem to be falling exceptionally fast, it's been a fairly leisurely pace downwards, especially with the conflicting signals there have been recently, which indicates to me it may continue to be a slow trend cooler. So maybe when the lid comes off it'll be a season that consistently produces through the end of November 30th. It's concerning to me that this slow trend cooler is combined with a warming ATL and a very strong WAM. I'm starting to feel a bit more confident in my contest numbers of 16/9/5 than I was before. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[tolakram]

Here's May 2nd, May 30th, annd June 27th SST anomalies animated.

[SFLcane]

wow..

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1144540737117261826

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1144544071865819137

[SFLcane]

Explosive potential after 60w ...

[NotSparta]

Explosive potential after 60w ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/30accr4.gif

Note how much less there is in the MDR, good if the Caribbean is ruled by shear again

[Kingarabian]

Explosive potential after 60w ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/30accr4.gif

Note how much less there is in the MDR, good if the Caribbean is ruled by shear again

I think if shear is low enough, it'll still be able to support a strong low rider with relative ease.

[NotSparta]

Explosive potential after 60w ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/30accr4.gif

Note how much less there is in the MDR, good if the Caribbean is ruled by shear again

I think if shear is low enough, it'll still be able to support a strong low rider with relative ease.

Yeah the MDR doesn't look bad, SST is decent and will likely rise owing to the WAM (usually the monsoon zone will become very warm at the end of August).

However not sure how to feel about the Caribbean. I'm not confident shear will be low there. ENSO doesn't look strong enough to be a big effect on the Caribbean shear (especially further east where it's important), but the big wild card is where the EPAC/CPAC season is biggest. It's definitely looking like another big season out there, but where the convection/TCs set up will be crucial. More CPAC based, then the EPAC is less active and shear is lowered in the Caribbean, which would allow low riders thru there. Then if the activity is east, then it's like last yr where storms can thrive in the MDR but begin getting shredded near 60°W.

We shall see what happens though, hopefully the Atlantic ridge is on the weaker side since it's been quite a few bad seasons there now

[gatorcane]

Even if we didn't fade to neutral, I doubt we had enough NINO to stifle the season & its influence was overrated in many seasonal forecasts imo. There were other variables that suggested this year wouldn't be quiet. Maybe it still is somehow (i.e. 2013) but that seems unlikely

-- Eric Webb (@webberweather) June 28, 2019

The EPAC was also relatively quiet in 2013 and that doesn’t look to be the case looking at the next 7-10 days and possibly beyond. So I agree unlikely this year will be another 2013 for the Atlantic.

[NotSparta]

Even if we didn't fade to neutral, I doubt we had enough NINO to stifle the season & its influence was overrated in many seasonal forecasts imo. There were other variables that suggested this year wouldn't be quiet. Maybe it still is somehow (i.e. 2013) but that seems unlikely

-- Eric Webb (@webberweather) June 28, 2019

The EPAC was also relatively quiet in 2013 and that doesn’t look to be the case looking at the next 7-10 days and possibly beyond. So I agree unlikely this year will be another 2013 for the Atlantic.

Yeah worldwide it was a down yr

[gatorcane]

Caribbean SST anomalies literally going off the chart:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1145330213657743363

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1145337190693519361

[SconnieCane]

Just a general observation from what has transpired thus far this year but it seems to me like MJO forcing in the IO is what you want if you like active weather in the central/eastern CONUS...be it NATL tropical cyclogenesis or land-based severe deep convection. Is this generally true?

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1145394280564961282

[Hammy]

Something about this season is feeling like 2002, given the pattern the models are indicating, the early inactivity, and how completely dead the Atlantic looks in general. Are there any indicators as far as that being an analog?