Texas Summer 2019

[TheProfessor]

The dewpoint briefly touched 80ºF here today. That's a little excessive.

Accuweather had me at a dewpoint of 82 lol. It was cloudy when I was walking the dog though so it didn't feel too bad.

[Brent]

Not one but two squall lines for DFW on the 0z NAM between tomorrow evening at this time and Sunday morning

Also has some scattered storms Sunday afternoon which would have severe potential too probably

[bubba hotep]

Not one but two squall lines for DFW on the 0z NAM between tomorrow evening at this time and Sunday morning

Also has some scattered storms Sunday afternoon which would have severe potential too probably

https://i.ibb.co/RN6Gbtx/nam3km-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png
https://i.ibb.co/68qjZBc/nam3km-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-33.png

Widespread 4-6" totals for DFW!

[bubba hotep]

Some South Texas folks getting slammed tonight

[Brent]

Not one but two squall lines for DFW on the 0z NAM between tomorrow evening at this time and Sunday morning

Also has some scattered storms Sunday afternoon which would have severe potential too probably

https://i.ibb.co/RN6Gbtx/nam3km-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png
https://i.ibb.co/68qjZBc/nam3km-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-33.png

Widespread 4-6" totals for DFW!

And yet the NWS only has 30% Saturday Night and 40% Sunday what gives

[bubba hotep]

Not one but two squall lines for DFW on the 0z NAM between tomorrow evening at this time and Sunday morning

Also has some scattered storms Sunday afternoon which would have severe potential too probably

https://i.ibb.co/RN6Gbtx/nam3km-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-26.png
https://i.ibb.co/68qjZBc/nam3km-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-33.png

Widespread 4-6" totals for DFW!

And yet the NWS only has 30% Saturday Night and 40% Sunday what gives

And no mention of a Flash Flood Watch in the afternoon AFD.

[Ntxw]

It will likely warrant flash flood watches. I suspect the nws may have to hoist them up.

The air is ripe for heavy rain.

[Brent]

It will likely warrant flash flood watches. I suspect the nws may have to hoist them up.

The air is ripe for heavy rain.

now I will say the models the news show had no widespread rain til Sunday Night, didn't show anything close to what the NAM has tomorrow night, and honestly the NAM has been consistent with at least one line in the timeframe

but those same models failed on Wednesday

Also the SPC day 1 doesnt even have the metro in a marginal

[Ntxw]

It will likely warrant flash flood watches. I suspect the nws may have to hoist them up.

The air is ripe for heavy rain.

now I will say the models the news show had no widespread rain til Sunday Night, didn't show anything close to what the NAM has tomorrow night, and honestly the NAM has been consistent with at least one line in the timeframe

but those same models failed on Wednesday

Also the SPC day 1 doesnt even have the metro in a marginal

Severe weather is finicky. This isn't about severe weather though. This is a pretty solid MCS, it is not so much about initiation. It will come through and pwats are high.

Moderate risk for excessive rainfall has been extended down to include more of NTX.

[Ntxw]

[bubba hotep]

Welp that was fun while it lasted... pretty much all the 12z HiRes models pull the plug on N. Texas rain of any significance and now have everything in far eastern Ok lol

[gpsnowman]

Welp that was fun while it lasted... pretty much all the 12z HiRes models pull the plug on N. Texas rain of any significance and now have everything in far eastern Ok lol

I noticed that. The morning reports from Fox 4 and channel 8 showed the same thing, most of the rain in Oklahoma. Still a chance here with cooler temps though.

[bubba hotep]

00z 3k NAM, which showed this solution for a about 2 straight days



Now the 12z 3k NAM

[DonWrk]

Welp that was fun while it lasted... pretty much all the 12z HiRes models pull the plug on N. Texas rain of any significance and now have everything in far eastern Ok lol

Wouldn’t expect anything less with a shift into eastern Oklahoma lol.

[bubba hotep]

Looking at things, it looks like the models are firing too much convection across the warm sector and that is preventing the MCS from developing in SW OK and then crashing into N. Texas. HiRes models do seem to be overly aggressive with warm sector convection, so lets' see if a bunch of convection fires in Texas and then lifts into Eastern OK. If that doesn't happen or isn't as robust as models show then we turn or focus to SW OK and watch for a MCS to develop.

The SPC ENH area in SW OK would be the area to watch for MCS development late this afternoon.

[Ntxw]

The feature that the short range guidance creates lift to generate the eastern Oklahoma convection is currently meandering through the west side of C-TX. It could trigger some afternoon activity in NTX later today. This is the remnants of the MCV that went through SW and S Texas yesterday evening.

[rwfromkansas]

Would something like that create subsidence and kill any MCS late overnight?

[Ntxw]

Would something like that create subsidence and kill any MCS late overnight?

I wouldn't think subsidence is the main issue. Being summer time steering is going to be the question the next 12 hours. We'll get an MCS tomorrow afternoon/evening but this evening is dependent on weak steering, and which complex takes over. FW AFD had a great discussion about the dual steering.

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/
/Through Tonight/

Relatively low predictability exists regarding convective chances
over the next 24 hours. Those with outdoor activities today
through tonight should have methods of monitoring the weather
with the potential for scattered strong storms throughout this
time period. Increased cloud cover should keep temperatures a
couple degrees lower than yesterday, preventing heat indices from
climbing above 105 for most locations, thus no heat headlines are
advertised.

Similar to the past several days, an open warm sector with 70+
degree dewpoints will exist across the region, with temperatures
expected to climb into the upper 80s and 90s. Steep lapse rates
exist through the mid levels, which will yield very strong
instability through the peak heating hours as surface based
inhibition erodes. The main question mark through the day will be
the lifting mechanisms, and whether they will be sufficient to
initiate and sustain deep moist convection. A subtle upstream
shortwave exists across West Texas which will pivot over the area
today. In addition, there is some indication that a convectively
induced vorticity lobe from ongoing convection across southwest
Texas (or perhaps a smaller scale MCV feature) may join with the
larger scale impulse within southwesterly flow aloft. Should this
occur, these features could allow for scattered convective
initiation attempts through the afternoon hours today, although
they would be highly disorganized without a the presence of a
focusing surface boundary. Given the magnitude of instability but
modest shear, a localized threat for borderline strong/severe
multicellular storms could exist, with a potential for hail and
downburst winds. Confidence in coverage, placement, and timing are
all rather low through this afternoon/evening, so modest broad
PoPs have been advertised. A plausible alternate scenario through
the afternoon is that no convection is able to develop at all if
lift is more absent compared to what guidance currently indicates.

Regardless of how things unfold this afternoon, additional
convective chances may exist this evening and tonight, as
convection to our northwest grows upscale into an MCS. While a
complex in this environment should exhibit elements of both
upwind and downwind propagation, its unclear which may be favored
at this point. Upwind propagation would favor a more southeastward
motion, possibly steering the complex into North Texas late this
evening and overnight, while downwind propagation would keep most
activity to the north in Oklahoma. There could at least be a
lower-end strong/severe wind threat, especially near the Red
River should a complex remain robust into the overnight hours.
Areas south of I-20 are largely expected to be dry tonight, unless
a complex maintains much better organization than currently
anticipated.

-Stalley

[bubba hotep]

The feature that the short range guidance creates lift to generate the eastern Oklahoma convection is currently meandering through the west side of C-TX. It could trigger some afternoon activity in NTX later today. This is the remnants of the MCV that went through SW and S Texas yesterday evening.

https://images2.imgbox.com/17/77/EbgSfc3R_o.gif

A lot going on in that loop. The remnant MCV appears to be drifting N-NW, which is putting it a long ways from helping set storms in SE OK later today. Also, looks like Eastern OK is capped pretty good right now.

[funster]

surprise pop-up downpour in N Dallas. A little thunder. And it's over. Sun coming back out...