Texas Summer 2019

[Brent]

95/77 at DFW for a heat index of 110

111 at McKinney

air temps aren't even that bad but the humidity is insane

[Portastorm]

113 heat index at the Austin airport as of 4 pm. Incredible to see dew points in the upper 70s here this late in the day. The Heat Advisory was certainly merited.

Happy to see this won't last though based on ensemble support. It would be more depressing if this was August and we looked ahead and saw weeks and weeks of this. So, there's the silver lining.

[gpsnowman]

Nice to hear from you Porta. The humidity here in Big D is some of the nastiest I have ever felt here. Just awful. Temps and dew points look to drop a bit over the coming days. Not by much, summer is here to stay for a while. Damn.

[Brent]

:uarrow: Nice to hear from you Porta. The humidity here in Big D is some of the nastiest I have ever felt here. Just awful. Temps and dew points look to drop a bit over the coming days. Not by much, summer is here to stay for a while. Damn.

at least after tomorrow...

the days begin to get shorter

[aperson]

Went running yesterday when KAUS obs were 88F 78dew. My normal easy pace is 8:00/mi and trying to hold easy at 9:40/mi was a struggle. Today is going to be brutal. It's amazing how much more exhausting physical activity is in these conditions compared to something like 100F 65dew.

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: Nice to hear from you Porta. The humidity here in Big D is some of the nastiest I have ever felt here. Just awful. Temps and dew points look to drop a bit over the coming days. Not by much, summer is here to stay for a while. Damn.

at least after tomorrow...

the days begin to get shorter

Yes. I am looking forward to the sun rays retreating from my west windows in the coming weeks.

[Brent]

btw according to the hi res NAM severe weather will be making a reappearance to North Texas and the metroplex late Saturday Night and into early Sunday, very large squall line

[weatherdude1108]

Encouraging discussion for our area by the EWX office.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 210906
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
406 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
A shortwave trough over the Ern Pacific will move into Nrn Mexico
today and help carve out a broad and unstable SW flow aloft over W
TX. A 700 mb ridge axis that kept South Central TX mostly stable for
Thursday into early this morning will shift east today and begin
allowing for a more tropical air mass to lift northward from the Wrn
Gulf. This pattern amplifies slightly for Saturday as a broad upper
low over the Great Basin and Nrn Rockies deepens over the 4 corners
region by 00z Sunday.

The H7 ridge will keep the midday hours hot and rain-free with a dry
continental air mass pushing down on a humid low level air mass. Thus
another Heat Advisory day is expected, but with the hotter conditions
retreating southward slightly, and highest heat index values to be a
couple degrees lower than from Thursday over most of the area, or
generally at or below 112. The increased troughing to the west should
lead to increased surface winds in the daytime and evening, so the
outdoor conditions should be feel closer to a typical June weather
day despite the Heat Advy. Out west, the instability over the higher
terrain will again have a chance to cross the Rio and bring some
strong downdrafts over areas generally west of Hwy 83 in the early
evening. Deterministic synoptic and CAMs models are somewhat split
down the middle between showing isolated convection near the river
and a more scattered day with convection threatening to reach the
I-35 corridor toward midnight. Blended guidances even out to look
reasonable and will show rain chances mainly staying west of a
Fredericksburg to Castroville line. Even the drier solutions show
some decent height falls in the mid levels pushing to the I-35
corridor, but available moisture appears to be a limiting factor
initially.

Daytime Saturday continues to reflect poor model on convective
coverage despite what looks to be an unstable pattern. With the
higher pwat values expected to be mostly south of the area, will
defer to a broad area of isolated PoPs, though there looks to be a
potential for increasing rain chances. GFS appears to suspiciously
trend drier for Saturday while the ECM/CMC models look to be
appropriately trending wetter. In any event, the cloud debris left
from tonight`s convection and increasing moisture in the mid levels
should help bring down daytime temps a few a degree or two, and the
heat indices should fall shy of our advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The uncertain isolated PoP trend continues into Saturday night with
emphasis likely shifted back to the west. Models show better
agreement on N TX being a focal point for convection Sunday as the
SWrn US upper low ejects NE into the Central Plains. This focal point
shifts southward late in the day and could lead to a good round of
evening convection over our eastern counties. With sagging outflow
boundaries and still a weakly unstable SW flow over the area while
surface to 700 mb flow feeds moisture into the convergence zone, feel
the best chance for concentrated heavy downpours will be for Sunday
night into Monday, with most of the area getting a good shot. The
unstable pattern aloft weakens and becomes chaotic at 500 mbs Monday
night into Tuesday, but the pooled moisture should allow for some
scattered, probably diurnal convection through Tuesday evening.
Models are in above average agreement that stability will increase
Wednesday as mid level ridging invades from the west. Stability is
projected in this forecast to persist into next Friday, but next
weekend could become unstable again should the 00Z GFS/ECM be
accurate in depicting an inverted mid level trough developing over
TX.

[bubba hotep]

Day 3 Slight for N. Texas from both SPC & WPC.

[newtotex]

btw according to the hi res NAM severe weather will be making a reappearance to North Texas and the metroplex late Saturday Night and into early Sunday, very large squall line

Do you have an imagine from the NAM showing that? I'm not able to view it right now for some reason

[Ntxw]

Looking like an MCS may be coming from the north/northwest Sat evening or Sunday morning. Then again Sunday evening.

[bubba hotep]

On pace for about 80 pages in this Summer thread! If we get a tropical system that threatens Texas then this could reach 100?

[Ntxw]

I don't think we have ever had a summer thread go beyond 100 pages. Life goals!

[wxman57]

It's finally here! The best 3 months of the year have arrived! Unfortunately, I've been stuck in the house for the past 3 weeks and will probably be at home and resting next week, too.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't think we have ever had a summer thread go beyond 100 pages. Life goals!

We have a chance this summer! After the next round of rain chances this weekend into early next week, an unsettled pattern could return to much of the state during the first week of July. Models are suggesting some heavy rainfall will be possible along the TX coast. Still no signs of any extended heat waves. Let's keep that going please!

[gpsnowman]

I don't think we have ever had a summer thread go beyond 100 pages. Life goals!

We have a chance this summer! After the next round of rain chances this weekend into early next week, an unsettled pattern could return to much of the state during the first week of July. Models are suggesting some heavy rainfall will be possible along the TX coast. Still no signs of any extended heat waves. Let's keep that going please!

Is this the best June ever?

[Ntxw]

I don't think we have ever had a summer thread go beyond 100 pages. Life goals!

We have a chance this summer! After the next round of rain chances this weekend into early next week, an unsettled pattern could return to much of the state during the first week of July. Models are suggesting some heavy rainfall will be possible along the TX coast. Still no signs of any extended heat waves. Let's keep that going please!

Is this the best June ever?

Currently in DFW: 92F with a dew point of 71
Currently in New Orleans: 92F with a dew point of 73

And some say Dallas only ever gets dry heat. Let them live a summer here, it can do both, all kinds of hell. You want the dry heat? Check. You want the humid oppressive heat? Check. Got it all. And we consider this a decent June .

[Ntxw]

Area of moderate excessive rainfall risk in southern OK and parts of NTX. Very high dew points continue up until the passage of the MCS complexes. Very efficient rain producers.

[bubba hotep]

Area of moderate excessive rainfall risk in southern OK and parts of NTX. Very high dew points continue up until the passage of the MCS complexes. Very efficient rain producers.

https://images2.imgbox.com/4c/68/7UNTNCCH_o.gif

18z 3k NAM suggests extending that Mod down into DFW

[1900hurricane]

The dewpoint briefly touched 80ºF here today. That's a little excessive.