Tropical MM5 at least a little more in touch with reality

[Stormsfury]

Develops a strong low in the Western Caribbean in about 3 days and parks it over Jamaica ... right now, only the NOGAPS really lends support to this scenario as the GFS/CMC/GFDL do not show this area developing significantly. The EURO tonight has a weak surface reflection in that area.

The NOGAPS is quite interesting in its handling of that area and movement of the system. But before anyone thinks about Lenny 1999, watch closely the end of the loop as the NOGAPS turns NE, and then more NORTHERLY.

MM5
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

NOGAPS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

[Josephine96]

It's been a very busy season. There's still about 45 days or so left. Could be an interesting finish with the way the names are going left and right.

[Steve H.]

Good observation SF, I was watching that tpp. Seems both models show little movement for a couple of days, then the NOGAPS has the system split off of the trough in the east, then perhaps sense some weak ridging or do the poleward thing. Watching for future model runs. Is there a 12Z run of the MM5?

[Stormsfury]

Good observation SF, I was watching that tpp. Seems both models show little movement for a couple of days, then the NOGAPS has the system split off of the trough in the east, then perhaps sense some weak ridging or do the poleward thing. Watching for future model runs. Is there a 12Z run of the MM5?

Not at the PSU site for the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameters. The MM5 is run twice a day on a national/regional scale but the PSU site only has the 00z run available on their site.

SF

[Anonymous]

The Western Caribbean is expected to become a bit more favorable alot more favorable than it is now.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

[Steve H.]

0Z run of NOGAPS has 1008 mb low in the SW Caribbean at 48 hours, but it only shows thru 60 hours so far.

[Stormsfury]

0Z run of NOGAPS has 1008 mb low in the SW Caribbean at 48 hours, but it only shows thru 60 hours so far.

The EURO actually shows a weak reflection after day 4 and holds it there in the SW Caribbean through Day 7 (and beyond assuming my interpretation of the 3 day average is correct)

SF

[bahamaswx]

0Z NOGAPS run continues to show development, only with much less eastward movement now. It keeps the system stationary for a day or so, moves it briefly east and then turns it north and NNW on the western side of Jamaica. After that a large trough looks to sweep it NE.

MM5 also still insists on development of 4 systems (it dropped the one near PR and now favours a cyclone east of the Bahamas)... however it brings the Caribbean system right off the western coast of Jamaica (similar to NOGAPS) and then turns it more sharply ENE over Jamaica and up the Windward Passage.

[cycloneye]

Now let's see in the next runs is there is consistemcy from those models to show the same thing or they change.But right now conditions in the western caribbean are not favorable as winds of 40-60 kts aloft are there.

[Stormsfury]

Today's Tropical MM5 run even more questionable than yesterday's run. Yesterday, at least it didn't show 4 tropical systems developing like on 10/17. What becomes intriguing is this ...

The MM5 continues to show development (along with NOGAPS) to show some development in the Western Caribbean but has backed off the idea of a hurricane. However, once again, this scenario isn't getting much support tropically speaking from the globals. The EURO shows a weak surface reflection pretty much stuck down in the Caribbean. The MM5's depiction of the overall pattern looks ok (not paying attention to the minor details here).

Once again, the MM5 depicts something in the Western Caribbean, but now seems to develop a low pressure East of the Bahamas, however, this looks more baroclinic along the tail end of a front. In fact, the Caribbean low isn't nearly as strong, and only supports tropical storm force winds now as last night's run. And yes, the MM5 ALSO wants to develop another system near the Cape Verde Islands.

The Caribbean is climatologically favored this time of year, however, IMHO, unless the tail end of the front becomes a lot more active than it currently is now.

W ATL.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MM5
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

MM5 40m Accumulated Windspeeds
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

00z NOGAPS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation