2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[TheStormExpert]

Meanwhile the NOAA/NESDIS site still paints a warm picture across the Tropical Atlantic!?

[SoupBone]

Sea surface temperatures are well below normal along the coast of West Africa and entire MDR. Suggests we will likely not see tropical cyclogenesis events near the coast of West Africa this Summer. Note 20N-40N is where we'll likely see TCgenesis most frequently this Summer. pic.twitter.com/rka091mKsh
-- Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) June 6, 2019

Since SST's are just one piece of the puzzle for genesis, why such a heavy weight being applied to it? And 20N-40N would mean Caribbean, Yucatan, and East coast systems.

[SFLcane]

MDR will be fine it's june 6 lets revisit this mid august

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136631987144450048

Umm, it’s June 6th?

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136631987144450048

Umm, it’s June 6th?

He had a quick followup that wasn't posted here:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136632053892603904

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136631987144450048

Umm, it’s June 6th?

He had a quick followup that wasn't posted here:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136632053892603904

If there's a strong possibility you end up wrong, WHY WOULD YOU SAY ANYTHING IN THE FIRST PLACE!?

[TheStormExpert]

Umm, it’s June 6th?

He had a quick followup that wasn't posted here:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136632053892603904

If there's a strong possibility you end up wrong, WHY WOULD YOU SAY ANYTHING IN THE FIRST PLACE!?

Sometimes I never understand Michael Ventrice.

[NotSparta]

Um yea were did the warm MDR go? Looks below normal to me on this map but as always it depends on which map you believe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

It does appear to be slightly below avg near 23°W as the buoys agree w/ that part, but I suspect CDAS tanked the values again due to SAL, not actual massive SST falls

[Kingarabian]

Umm, it’s June 6th?

He had a quick followup that wasn't posted here:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136632053892603904

If there's a strong possibility you end up wrong, WHY WOULD YOU SAY ANYTHING IN THE FIRST PLACE!?

Probably because they all hug the Euro and the Euro shows a down MDR in its June forecast.

[NotSparta]

He had a quick followup that wasn't posted here:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136632053892603904

If there's a strong possibility you end up wrong, WHY WOULD YOU SAY ANYTHING IN THE FIRST PLACE!?

Probably because they all hug the Euro and the Euro shows a down MDR in its June forecast.

It wouldn't be the Euro if it didn't show a dead MDR, lol

[TheStormExpert]

He had a quick followup that wasn't posted here:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1136632053892603904

If there's a strong possibility you end up wrong, WHY WOULD YOU SAY ANYTHING IN THE FIRST PLACE!?

Probably because they all hug the Euro and the Euro shows a down MDR in its June forecast.

So even if the Euro were showing a COMPLETELY DEAD season more so than it already does they still would go with it even if everything was looking favorable enough for at least an average season?

[Kingarabian]

If there's a strong possibility you end up wrong, WHY WOULD YOU SAY ANYTHING IN THE FIRST PLACE!?

Probably because they all hug the Euro and the Euro shows a down MDR in its June forecast.

So even if the Euro were showing a COMPLETELY DEAD season more so than it already does they still would go with it even if everything was looking favorable enough for at least an average season?

These guys pay top dollar to ECMWF to use and display their products, so by default they'll give the model a lot of weight. Plus the Euro is very popular and it brings a lot of attention to their respective social media pages/companies. Like Joe Bastardi has the ECARRIB islands at the most risk this season, but is constantly pointing out the MDR will be dead because the Euro said so. Figure that one out lol.

But even then, while the Euro early season predictions have been rubbish the past couple of years it's good information to have regardless and it's good to consider every models solution. That's why we all have our own intuitions and we can judge things accordingly. We knew that despite the MDR is running a bit below average it doesn't mean the season will be down even if the models say so. We knew there would be no strong El Nino back in April, even if the CFS and Euro were saying so.

To me this is why this forum cannot be beat. A lot of irreplaceable awareness and insight is provided here compared to other places and thus we are able to piece this big puzzle together and consider all factors.

[SFLcane]

Thought I’d repost this here to..

Currently, we find additional indications of atmospheric behavior that suggest a potential replay of 2017 conditions in 2019.

 https://twitter.com/cfanclimate/status/1135934856876027910

[NotSparta]

Thought I’d repost this here to..

Currently, we find additional indications of atmospheric behavior that suggest a potential replay of 2017 conditions in 2019.

https://twitter.com/cfanclimate/status/1135934856876027910

Well, that's the highest fcst I've seen by pros so far, hope it's not like 2017

[hurricanetrack]

Probably because they all hug the Euro and the Euro shows a down MDR in its June forecast.

So even if the Euro were showing a COMPLETELY DEAD season more so than it already does they still would go with it even if everything was looking favorable enough for at least an average season?

These guys pay top dollar to ECMWF to use and display their products, so by default they'll give the model a lot of weight. Plus the Euro is very popular and it brings a lot of attention to their respective social media pages/companies. Like Joe Bastardi has the ECARRIB islands at the most risk this season, but is constantly pointing out the MDR will be dead because the Euro said so. Figure that one out lol.

But even then, while the Euro early season predictions have been rubbish the past couple of years it's good information to have regardless and it's good to consider every models solution. That's why we all have our own intuitions and we can judge things accordingly. We knew that despite the MDR is running a bit below average it doesn't mean the season will be down even if the models say so. We knew there would be no strong El Nino back in April, even if the CFS and Euro were saying so.

To me this is why this forum cannot be beat. A lot of irreplaceable awareness and insight is provided here compared to other places and thus we are able to piece this big puzzle together and consider all factors.

YOU NAILED IT! The collective consensus of the people here, I call it the crowd-sourcing of hurricane info, cannot be beat.

[cycloneye]

AEW's

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1137003465358610432

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1136969806224207873

[psyclone]

WRT to sea temps I notice plenty of folks looking at and making judgments on anomalies absent context on absolutes. there are plenty of regions of the basin that can have below normal anomalies and yet the sea temps remain plenty warm to sustain or allow a tropical system to develop. It's easy to be fooled by this. Anomalies are important but absent context their value is greatly diminished...IMO. Show me a Gulf that's below normal temp wise in August and you're looking at a body of water plenty warm for a hurricane...same for the Caribbean and MDR.

[CyclonicFury]

WRT to sea temps I notice plenty of folks looking at and making judgments on anomalies absent context on absolutes. there are plenty of regions of the basin that can have below normal anomalies and yet the sea temps remain plenty warm to sustain or allow a tropical system to develop. It's easy to be fooled by this. Anomalies are important but absent context their value is greatly diminished...IMO. Show me a Gulf that's below normal temp wise in August and you're looking at a body of water plenty warm for a hurricane...same for the Caribbean and MDR.

Very true. Sometimes people look at a below-normal MDR instantly assume it's going to be dead and quiet. However, that's not always the case, especially when the West African Monsoon is strong like last year. Last season had four hurricanes form in the MDR (Beryl, Florence, Helene and Isaac). Interestingly, a year with a very warm MDR, 2005, had only two hurricanes form in this region. By September, the MDR is always warm enough for TC genesis.

In the case of the GoM, it's pretty much always warm enough for TCs between June and October, and the Caribbean is warm enough for TCs year-round. Upper-level conditions matter a lot more than SSTs in these regions.

[TheStormExpert]

Agree! The Tropical Atlantic/MDR, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and off the U.S. SE Coast are almost ALWAYS warm enough to support at least a minimal hurricane by peak season. It’s just a matter of instability (which the MJO/KW’s can help), and wind-shear that can make it all happen. But the reason I’m pointing out that the Gulf is abnormally warmer than average for this time of year is because last September with the Eastern third of the U.S. being so warm it allowed the Gulf to boil and we all know what happened in October. Something to watch!