#73 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:11 pm
Haris wrote:just got enhanced risk!
I was shocked by that. I read up on the discussion. They mentioned an area of drier mid-level air in our area, developing a cold pool-driven MCS, with a scattered large hail threat initially around the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country, and subsequent increased wind potential downstream towards I35 and the coastal plains. I may or may not take off a couple hours early tomorrow. Have to see what happens with the mesoscale features.
...TX into the Central Gulf Coast States...
A closed upper low initially centered over the southern High Plains
is forecast to slowly move eastward towards the lower MS Valley
through the period. A belt of somewhat enhanced mid-level westerly
winds (around 30-45 kt) will likely be present across much of TX to
the central Gulf Coast region, and a strongly veering wind profile
should support 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across much of
central/east TX by Thursday afternoon. Ample heating of a very moist
low-level airmass will occur from the Edwards Plateau eastward
across the Hill Country and into the Coastal Plain of TX, and MLCAPE
of 1500-3000+ J/kg will likely develop across these areas.
Convective development should occur by Thursday afternoon in the
vicinity of the Edwards Plateau as a mid/upper-level speed maximum
overspreads this area.
Given the forecast combination of instability and shear, supercells
appear probable initially, with both scattered large hail and
damaging wind threats. There is concern that upscale growth into an
MCS with potential for at least scattered damaging winds may occur
across parts of the Hill Country into the middle TX Coastal Plain
late Thursday afternoon into the evening. Somewhat drier mid-level
air noted on forecast soundings across this region should encourage
development of a substantial cold pool, and 12Z convection-allowing
model guidance is showing this increased wind potential in a
relatively focused corridor. Have therefore increased severe
probabilities for parts of this area in TX to account for the
likelihood of both scattered large hail initially and damaging winds
later in the convective life cycle.https://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 2otlk.html
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