2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Hurricaneman]

The CDAS seems to be prone to error though, I would go with the NOAA one as that seems like the more official one

[NotSparta]

The CDAS seems to be prone to error though, I would go with the NOAA one as that seems like the more official one

Problem is NOAA baseline is atrocious and regularly is biased towards +AMOs

[NDG]

Lets compared apples to apples using the same sources, what we can all agree with is that the MDR is warmer right now that this same time last year.




Edit: added CDAS:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1134889819149152257

[BYG Jacob]

Anomalies are cool and all, but what are the actual SSTs over the MDR?

[NotSparta]

Anomalies are cool and all, but what are the actual SSTs over the MDR?

They may be a bit biased low w/ the recent SAL, but:

[AnnularCane]

So like I know for the western Gulf the really bad stuff usually comes at the end of August/beginning of September. I was planning to go back to Houston during July-early August since usually that's not too bad, but I guess what you guys seem to imply is those times will be bad for the western Gulf as well?

I heard talk that it might be quiet until about mid-July or so, but now we have 91L, so... I guess only time will tell! Hopefully you won't experience too many issues in Houston, but there's really no telling until something happens, or doesn't.

Sorry, not sure how helpful that was. But just keep an eye on things and see what happens, and prepare if necessary.

[TheStormExpert]

SAL has been at its lowest levels in the MDR this spring in at least 16 years!

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1135003230331645952

[storm_in_a_teacup]

The CDAS seems to be prone to error though, I would go with the NOAA one as that seems like the more official one

Problem is NOAA baseline is atrocious and regularly is biased towards +AMOs

Please forgive me here but what is an AMO? I assume it's some kind of oscillation, but I don't recognize the initials.

[StruThiO]

Please forgive me here but what is an AMO? I assume it's some kind of oscillation, but I don't recognize the initials.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the climate cycle that's responsible for the Atlantic's current high activity era that began in 1995

[NotSparta]

The CDAS seems to be prone to error though, I would go with the NOAA one as that seems like the more official one

Problem is NOAA baseline is atrocious and regularly is biased towards +AMOs

Please forgive me here but what is an AMO? I assume it's some kind of oscillation, but I don't recognize the initials.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the positive phase has a warm MDR and far North Atlantic, and typically features more TC activity

[StruThiO]

SAL has been at its lowest levels in the MDR this spring in at least 16 years!

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1135003230331645952

judging by that graphic, 2005, 2010, and 2017 had above average dust, so not sure if this can be used as a positive indicator for the Atlantic

[Chris90]

SAL has been at its lowest levels in the MDR this spring in at least 16 years!

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1135003230331645952

judging by that graphic, 2005, 2010, and 2017 had above average dust, so not sure if this can be used as a positive indicator for the Atlantic

I'm questioning that graphic in general. I'm like 98% sure that back in 2017 either during the spring or early summer one of the pro mets mentioned on twitter that SAL was at its lowest levels since 2005. That graphic does not reflect anything like that. I'm suspicious.
Maybe I'm wrong though.

[NDG]

SAL has been at its lowest levels in the MDR this spring in at least 16 years!

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1135003230331645952

judging by that graphic, 2005, 2010, and 2017 had above average dust, so not sure if this can be used as a positive indicator for the Atlantic

The graph is only during spring, if memory serves me correct 2005 did have below average SAL outbreaks during the summer. So probably most important is if SAL will stay below average or not through the next summer months.

[NDG]

Yet another image to compare to this same time last year. So far warmer than last year but not as warm as '16 & '17.

[weathaguyry]

I really think the takeaway is that SST's are so variable that they aren't a great indicator for the season as a whole, especially considering we are only on the second day of the season. No matter what, the SST's will always be warm enough to sustain hurricanes in the deep tropics and the GOM by August, it's all a matter of atmospheric conditions such as SAL and shear, which seem that they may be at least lower than last year. We are all itching to track monster canes rolling through the Atlantic, but we have to sit back for a little while and focus on the little slop systems until mother nature is ready to give us her worst

[chaser1]

I really think the takeaway is that SST's are so variable that they aren't a great indicator for the season as a whole, especially considering we are only on the second day of the season. No matter what, the SST's will always be warm enough to sustain hurricanes in the deep tropics and the GOM by August, it's all a matter of atmospheric conditions such as SAL and shear, which seem that they may be at least lower than last year. We are all itching to track monster canes rolling through the Atlantic, but we have to sit back for a little while and focus on the little slop systems until mother nature is ready to give us her worst

Good point. I think SST's are only particularly relevant when they might be unusually cool. Anomalously high SST could play into an increased RI potential but only if all other dynamics are in place for cyclogenesis to even occur.

By the way..... anyone notice how nicely the Atlantic ITCZ is beginning to flare up? Then again, "that's occuring" barely north of the equator around 2N-4N

[NotSparta]

I really think the takeaway is that SST's are so variable that they aren't a great indicator for the season as a whole, especially considering we are only on the second day of the season. No matter what, the SST's will always be warm enough to sustain hurricanes in the deep tropics and the GOM by August, it's all a matter of atmospheric conditions such as SAL and shear, which seem that they may be at least lower than last year. We are all itching to track monster canes rolling through the Atlantic, but we have to sit back for a little while and focus on the little slop systems until mother nature is ready to give us her worst

Good point. I think SST's are only particularly relevant when they might be unusually cool. Anomalously high SST could play into an increased RI potential but only if all other dynamics are in place for cyclogenesis to even occur.

By the way..... anyone notice how nicely the Atlantic ITCZ is beginning to flare up? Then again, "that's occuring" barely north of the equator around 2N-4N

Well, it is only early June

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1135552970286718977

[Hurricaneman]

2005 might not be as big an analog as I thought but 2004 looks closer to a good analog along with 1969 with a madoki look to the El Niño and the Atlantic trending towards a similar look temperature and shear wise