![Image](https://i.imgur.com/ZMfCXhk.gif)
Now only expecting a Cat 1 landfall...
WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 141.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 141.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.9S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.5S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.4S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.8S 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.6S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AFTER IT EXITED FROM
THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME
RAGGED AND MORE ENLARGED BUT REMAINS INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MORE COMPACT LLC IN THE
210606Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT FIT
INSIDE THE LLC FEATURES IN THE MSI ANIMATION AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE
CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GOC UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA AROUND TAU 42. AFTERWARD, THE TC WILL
TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR
RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GOC WILL INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM UP TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z,
220300Z AND 220900Z.//
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