Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

Please tell me this will be the last of the cold after this cold shot--

I have to be in San Antonio all next week for work-driving down Sunday afternoon. I should miss any frozen precip, right?

You have a chance of seeing some light sleet between noon and 6pm on Sunday in the D-FW metroplex. Surface temps should be above freezing, though, so I don't foresee any travel issues for your trip down to San Antonio except for wet roads. Pretty good chance this will be winter's last gasp as far as any significant freezing/frozen precip chances.

[weatherdude1108]

Snow in Austin on the FV3. Not much but a start!!!! Dallas too!!! "Tear down that wall Mr. Gorbachev 57" -Snownald Reagan

FV3 is smoking crack. Heavy snow MS/AL coasts and to the beaches of the FL Panhandle? 9 inches near Pensacola? It's definitely a cold-mongering model, and it's likely wrong. My walls will not fail.

http://wxman57.com/images/FV3.JPG

That 9-incher in the FL panhandle, man, better get the National Guard down there on standby for shoveling aid!

[dhweather]

Snow in Austin on the FV3. Not much but a start!!!! Dallas too!!! "Tear down that wall Mr. Gorbachev 57" -Snownald Reagan

FV3 is smoking crack. Heavy snow MS/AL coasts and to the beaches of the FL Panhandle? 9 inches near Pensacola? It's definitely a cold-mongering model, and it's likely wrong. My walls will not fail.

I think its moved on to meth, but I could be wrong.

[Cerlin]

Snow in Austin on the FV3. Not much but a start!!!! Dallas too!!! "Tear down that wall Mr. Gorbachev 57" -Snownald Reagan

FV3 is smoking crack. Heavy snow MS/AL coasts and to the beaches of the FL Panhandle? 9 inches near Pensacola? It's definitely a cold-mongering model, and it's likely wrong. My walls will not fail.

I think its moved on to meth, but I could be wrong.

This is a classic heroin-induced profile to me.

[Ntxw]

Average for early March is 60s/40s so the other story is it will be quite cold relative to the period, some 20-30F below normal. Record lows the first few days of March are in the low teens so that is probably safe but the daily lowest max might be achievable.

[Texas Snow]

Interesting thoughts from NWSFWD

Saturday onward
An arctic cold front will arrive early Saturday morning, ushering
in much colder temperatures that will linger through the rest of
the weekend and into the early parts of next week. Highs on
Saturday will likely occur early in the morning across North
Texas, and mid to late morning across Central Texas. Descending
temperatures can be expected through the day, along with windy
conditions during and several hours after the cold front. All rain
chances will remain east of I-35, where the better moisture will
reside. By Sunday, some locations, especially those west of I-35
and north of I-20, may struggle to get out of the 30s in the
afternoon. Fortunately, it appears as if the precipitation will
remain across Central Texas, where temperatures will be safely
above freezing.

The cold temperatures will linger into the next work week with
the cold dense air mass in place. Some models have hinted that
there may be some moisture to work with by the end of this week
and into the next, but it is important to note that confidence in
the 6-7 day time scale is very low. Raw model output and
precipitation type algorithms do have their flaws, and many images
have already been making their rounds in the internet. Models
will continue to flip-flop in the coming days, and given the
probability of no wintry precipitation is much higher than that of
any wintry precipitation, will continue to advertise a dry
forecast where temperatures are at or near freezing.

[Ralph's Weather]

Average for early March is 60s/40s so the other story is it will be quite cold relative to the period, some 20-30F below normal. Record lows the first few days of March are in the low teens so that is probably safe but the daily lowest max might be achievable.

The 4/5 have achievable records here the 3 and 6 record low highs are in the 20s so unlikely. This system looks like it wants to rival 3/2-3/2014 but maybe not as cold.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS is another shift south with wider frozen precip for NTX.

[bubba hotep]

I actually liked the 12z Euro but maybe that is just me.

[wxman57]

Here are some interesting meteograms from the 18Z GFS.

Cold and dry in Dallas-Ft. Worth


Cold and rainy in Houston:


Cold and icy(?) in Austin:

[Haris]

My gut says this is the one for at least the metroplexers.

Would not rule out something like Mar 2015 here in Austin few hundredths of (sleet/ZR)

[Brent]

Not bad for at least a little snow

[Portastorm]

Brent, it’s a trap!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Brent, it’s a trap!

You ruined my plan, Portastorm!

[Brent]

:uarrow:

Brent, it’s a trap!

You ruined my plan, Portastorm!

[aggiecutter]

:uarrow:

Brent, it’s a trap!

Texarkana is the only city in Texas that will receive significant snow from next week's storm. The I-35 corridor from Austin to Dallas will not see a flake.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Without that subtropical high south of us, this cold air mass would have brought brutally cold temps. Now it looks like were left with 30's and rain. This winter is the worst!

[Haris]

Hoping the weeklies r wrong.

Drier than normal over the next couple weeks...

It really needs to start raining soon! This is all opposite of el nino

[spencer817]

Hoping the weeklies r wrong.

Drier than normal over the next couple weeks...

It really needs to start raining soon! This is all opposite of el nino

If that comes to fruition, no severe season yet again...

[Brent]

nada on the GFS though we barely miss out to the north on Monday

FV GFS has some brief mix to light snow Sunday Night it appears