Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Pete Delkus Ch8 Dallas Just highlighted the Euro showing 2.5 inches of snow and in a broad stroke bashed the GFS (showing an inch) while saying he wasn’t forecasting any of it yet, until he sees some consistency.

Interesting to see TV talking this far out. Not sure if it’s ratings or if they think it’s really possible. Hold on for the ride to spring!

I'm afraid they will jinx it lol. This is that range that has plagued us all winter

[Texas Snow]

Im heading to Vail in 2 weeks. I’ll trade what isn’t unheard of there, to get 2 feet in the mountains, to get just 2 inches at my house. It’s always better at home, at least for most of us in Texas.

However if I get none at home, I want my 2 feet there.

[Brent]

Im heading to Vail in 2 weeks. I’ll trade what isn’t unheard of there, to get 2 feet in the mountains, to get just 2 inches at my house. It’s always better at home, at least for most of us in Texas.

However if I get none at home, I want my 2 feet there.

yeah I've been pretty bitter about this winter for other reasons that the lack of snow here, mostly because I never went anywhere snowy this winter, that's gotta change next year regardless of what happens here

I was gonna go to Tahoe this week actually awhile back but no money

[Brent]

Euro has some brief wintry mix in DFW as early as Sunday morning

Monday much more widespread frozen precip though ironically a hole over DFW

[spencer817]

Euro with a NICE snow hole over DFW Monday morning!

[Brent]

yeah this run isnt gonna be as good as the 12z

[Cerlin]

I’m just gonna move.

[Brent]

the GEFS was also less snowy

the news jinxed it talking about it been downhill since!

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley is confident of the cold with some hard freezes on the way. No mention of frozen stuff yet.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Active weather pattern will continue this week with several chances of rainfall and potential for a fairly significant cold front next weekend.

Southwesterly flow aloft doing its thing this morning with clouds and moisture starting to increase over the surface cold dome…sound familiar? Radar shows some showers over the Gulf waters likely being forced by a passing weak disturbance which none of the forecast models showed. A few of the models are trying to generate a few light showers this afternoon along the coast as moisture increases.

Better rain chances come tonight into Tuesday as a warm front moves toward the area from the south and lift increases ahead of a short wave in the sub-tropical SW flow aloft. Cloud decks will lower and thicken this evening and expected drizzle and light rain to begin to develop by mid evening and expand in coverage and intensity into Tuesday. Instability increases some on Tuesday above the surface and a few elevated thunderstorms may develop. SPC has outlooked a good part of the area for a “marginal” risk of severe weather and think a few of the stronger thunderstorms could produce some large hail. Rainfall amounts of .25-.75 of an inch look likely late today-early Wednesday.

Surface warm front lifts northward on Tuesday night with the area becoming warm sectored. This will result in showers and thunderstorms gradually ending and shifting NE of the area although I would not rule out a few showers moving S to N in the warm air advection regime on Wednesday. Other item of concern will be our coastal TX “friend” the sea fog as warm 60 degree dewpoints move over near 60 degree water temperatures. Dense sea fog bank will likely develop late Tuesday and linger into Thursday across the coastal locations.

Some of the models are attempting to move a cold front into the area on Thursday as a very cold air mass moves into the plains. The NAM model which did exceedingly well the weekend of the 16th with a shallow dense cold air mass is showing this front pushing into and across the area on Thursday while the other global models keep the front stalled to our north. This will have big ramifications on the temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday as we could approach 80 if the front does not come through or have highs in the 50’s and 60’s if it does move through. I am leaning toward the NAM solution since it tends to handle these dense, shallow, cold air masses better than the global models, but would like to see a few more runs before having much confidence.

Regardless of what happens Thursday and Friday, a significant cold front will move across the region on Saturday. A strong arctic air mass will plunge down the plains and across TX on Saturday allowing very cold conditions for early March. Front should clear the coast on Saturday with temperatures falling into the 50’s and maybe even the 40’s during the day under strong cold air advection. Strong lift begins to develop behind the front as the SW flow aloft overruns the boundary and expect widespread rains to develop Sunday-Tuesday. Will have to keep a close eye on surface temperatures during this period as some areas could get close to freezing for morning lows.

[wxman57]

Both the 00Z and 06Z GFS indicate warm (above-freezing) air aloft next Sunday-Tuesday in the D-FW area, but with a sub-freezing layer just above the surface. This is indicative of sleet. Euro agrees, and has backed off on its forecast of snow in the D-FW area in favor of periods of sleet. Since the event is at least 6 days away, this forecast could certainly change.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Both the 00Z and 06Z GFS indicate warm (above-freezing) air aloft next Sunday-Tuesday in the D-FW area, but with a sub-freezing layer just above the surface. This is indicative of sleet. Euro agrees, and has backed off on its forecast of snow in the D-FW area in favor of periods of sleet. Since the event is at least 6 days away, this forecast could certainly change.

Not uncommon to lose snow in the 5-7 day range, would you say?

[Cerlin]

Both the 00Z and 06Z GFS indicate warm (above-freezing) air aloft next Sunday-Tuesday in the D-FW area, but with a sub-freezing layer just above the surface. This is indicative of sleet. Euro agrees, and has backed off on its forecast of snow in the D-FW area in favor of periods of sleet. Since the event is at least 6 days away, this forecast could certainly change.

Not uncommon to lose snow in the 5-7 day range, would you say?

Well yeah, but they tend to lose snow for the rest of the time leading up to it too, so that isn’t very promising...

[gpsnowman]

Just need these fronts to came in colder. Also if the temps are borderline, cloud cover will play a role in fluctuations keeping forecasted highs lower or conversely temps warmer at night. We shall see. A sleet storm would be awesome at this point

[Cerlin]

12z GFS is promising with snow and sleet overnight Monday for NTX. Soundings still indicate a warm nose for DFW but for Denton and Collin county, it stays below freezing throughout the column.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is promising with snow and sleet overnight Monday for NTX. Soundings still indicate a warm nose for DFW but for Denton and Collin county, it stays below freezing throughout the column.

Don't worry about the column yet, its too far out for any model to correctly grasp at this range. We should watch trends for HP and cold air source as well as ripples of waves in the southern stream. It is the shortwaves that will determine if it snows or not. There will be multiple instances and trying to guess where they go is like guessing game.

[Cerlin]

12z GFS is promising with snow and sleet overnight Monday for NTX. Soundings still indicate a warm nose for DFW but for Denton and Collin county, it stays below freezing throughout the column.

Don't worry about the column yet, its too far out for any model to correctly grasp at this range. We should watch trends for HP and cold air source as well as ripples of waves in the southern stream. It is the shortwaves that will determine if it snows or not. There will be multiple instances and trying to guess where they go is like guessing game.

Yeah, you’re right. At least each model is indicating some good trends. FV3 has scattered snow showers throughout Monday, while the ICON (unreliable but hey who cares) show some too. CMC has a near miss with sleet on Monday and snow on Tuesday for DFW as well. Some good trends we’ll have to watch.

[nathanc1969]

Well I asked Larry Cosgrove if it was garden time in West Texas and I got a thumbs up. This winter will be known as the winter that wasn't in my area.

[Ntxw]

Well I asked Larry Cosgrove if it was garden time in West Texas and I got a thumbs up. This winter will be known as the winter that wasn't in my area.

Where in West Texas? There looks to be some hard freezes there next week north of I-10 and might even be sub-freezing daytime highs for a day or two. I would definitely not be gardening until at least mid month.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well I asked Larry Cosgrove if it was garden time in West Texas and I got a thumbs up. This winter will be known as the winter that wasn't in my area.

Every master gardener will tell you that planting anything not cold hardy before Easter is a big mistake.