Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Toadfrog]

Some of you guys should be able to help me out on this. I can’t quite remember the date, but I believe during the first week of March of 2002, we had teens all the way down here in southeast TX.

Yep.....I was doing a drill job on the coast just south of Houston. Dry, but brutal cold for 4-5 days.

[Ntxw]

I know that the March 4th ice storm is somewhat of a joke but I have been seeing a pattern with the first few days of March being the target area for some potential winter weather. The GFS and FV3 have repeatedly been showing some winter weather bouts for parts of TX. Of course, it won’t verify like always, but at least it’s not hopeless.

The models are picking up on "something" happening in early March. That "something" may turn out to be just another moderately cold front like this week's or last week's, or it could turn out to be a little colder with the potential for some winter precipitation. The place to keep an eye on over the coming weeks is western Canada (British Columbia and Alberta). Currently, temps are well above zero there. Last week, the temps there hit -45F. Can that area "recharge" with cold air between now and early March? GFS suggests at least SOME cross-polar flow in late February, bring colder Arctic air into NW Canada. However, the current GFS run indicates a pattern similar to past events - some cold air coming down but not enough for much winter precip.

There's certainly a chance for some significant winter precip in the D-FW area around early March. However, I'm not running to "kick that football" just yet. I don't like the look on Lucy's face.

100+ days out but long long super crazy range models shows a cool/wet summer .

[wxman57]

100+ days out but long long super crazy range models shows a cool/wet summer .

Oh, that's fine, as a "cool" summer still means highs in the 90s. I can survive if the highs don't top 100 every day. As long as the highs are over 85 I'm happy. As for the "wet" part, my lawn will be happy, too. I can dodge a few lightning bolts while cycling.

[Portastorm]

100+ days out but long long super crazy range models shows a cool/wet summer .

Oh, that's fine, as a "cool" summer still means highs in the 90s. I can survive if the highs don't top 100 every day. As long as the highs are over 85 I'm happy. As for the "wet" part, my lawn will be happy, too. I can dodge a few lightning bolts while cycling.

I find myself in the very unique position of agreeing with wxman57 about "preferred" summer weather. Dear lord, what is this world coming to!

[wxman57]

100+ days out but long long super crazy range models shows a cool/wet summer .

Oh, that's fine, as a "cool" summer still means highs in the 90s. I can survive if the highs don't top 100 every day. As long as the highs are over 85 I'm happy. As for the "wet" part, my lawn will be happy, too. I can dodge a few lightning bolts while cycling.

I find myself in the very unique position of agreeing with wxman57 about "preferred" summer weather. Dear lord, what is this world coming to!

There may be hope for you yet, Portastorm.

[weatherdude1108]

Funny you mention that the heat is more expensive than the AC in this house lol

I was amazed too given how long and hot our summers are in comparison

Same here. My heat is twice as expensive as A/C

Do you central heat with electricity? Gas in Texas is relatively cheap given our short winters. For most of us the aggregate of 6+ months of AC generally is a higher cost than 3 or so for heating.

That's what I was wondering. I have gas heat, and it's always cheaper than AC, unless gas prices go up, or unless we are in an ice storm and huddled inside for days with the gas log fireplace going at the same time, then it's about even with summer AC. I used to have a heat pump in San Antonio with the AC unit, which was electric. That raised the bill.

[weatherdude1108]

Same here. My heat is twice as expensive as A/C

Do you central heat with electricity? Gas in Texas is relatively cheap given our short winters. For most of us the aggregate of 6+ months of AC generally is a higher cost than 3 or so for heating.

I can’t get gas out where I live, it’s too far out away from everything else. I’m total electric except for my stove which is propane. My buddy uses propane for heat but pays more in heating costs than I do with electric.

Just saw this response after I already posted. That makes sense gas would cost more out there. Do you have propane tanks on the property? I see that a lot when I go out into the country, or even just outside the city here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'll take n el nino summer. Ugh, talking about summer already.

[TheProfessor]

Had a quick thump of about 4 inches of snow here. It even came with some thunder snow! Everything is melting today lol and it's going to be approaching 60 on Saturday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Do you central heat with electricity? Gas in Texas is relatively cheap given our short winters. For most of us the aggregate of 6+ months of AC generally is a higher cost than 3 or so for heating.

I can’t get gas out where I live, it’s too far out away from everything else. I’m total electric except for my stove which is propane. My buddy uses propane for heat but pays more in heating costs than I do with electric.

Just saw this response after I already posted. That makes sense gas would cost more out there. Do you have propane tanks on the property? I see that a lot when I go out into the country, or even just outside the city here.

I do. I have a 300 gal tank but only keep it at around 25% for the cooktop. My one saving grace is a wood burning stove that I keep going all day when we have cold spells and also a fireplace. It definately helps on the cost with the electric heat.

[wxman57]

It warms my heart (no pun intended) to see all of you cold lovers complaining about the high cost of heating your homes in winter. I propose that we do away with winter and just have 90-deg temps year-round. That would save you all so much money!

In other news, the 12Z EC has a 1060mb high dropping into southern Alberta next Friday morning. Could this be "the big one"? GFS was similar, but shot it ESE and off the East U.S. Coast very quickly.

[Ntxw]

It warms my heart (no pun intended) to see all of you cold lovers complaining about the high cost of heating your homes in winter. I propose that we do away with winter and just have 90-deg temps year-round. That would save you all so much money!

In other news, the 12Z EC has a 1060mb high dropping into southern Alberta next Friday morning. Could this be "the big one"? GFS was similar, but shot it ESE and off the East U.S. Coast very quickly.

Oh no sir, most definitely not. Cooling (AC) is still way costlier for most Texans than is heating. Even for those who said heating is more expensive, it is still likely less than their annual cooling cost (AC runs more)!

[wxman57]

It warms my heart (no pun intended) to see all of you cold lovers complaining about the high cost of heating your homes in winter. I propose that we do away with winter and just have 90-deg temps year-round. That would save you all so much money!

In other news, the 12Z EC has a 1060mb high dropping into southern Alberta next Friday morning. Could this be "the big one"? GFS was similar, but shot it ESE and off the East U.S. Coast very quickly.

Oh no sir, most definitely not. Cooling (AC) is still way costlier for most Texans than is heating. Even for those who said heating is more expensive, it is still likely less than their annual cooling cost (AC runs more)!

Well, I was just trying to be considerate of all you poor folks who can't afford your heating bills.

Speaking of the 12Z Euro, here are a couple of graphics from Maue's website. Decent 1055mb high moving down the Plains at 240hrs. Below-zero temps nearly to northern OK. Temps in the lower 20s into NE Texas (which includes the D-FW area ) Do we believe it this time? I'm still not planting my baby satsuma tree until i'm sure about this predicted outbreak.

[Cpv17]

It warms my heart (no pun intended) to see all of you cold lovers complaining about the high cost of heating your homes in winter. I propose that we do away with winter and just have 90-deg temps year-round. That would save you all so much money!

In other news, the 12Z EC has a 1060mb high dropping into southern Alberta next Friday morning. Could this be "the big one"? GFS was similar, but shot it ESE and off the East U.S. Coast very quickly.

Oh no sir, most definitely not. Cooling (AC) is still way costlier for most Texans than is heating. Even for those who said heating is more expensive, it is still likely less than their annual cooling cost (AC runs more)!

Well, I was just trying to be considerate of all you poor folks who can't afford your heating bills.

Speaking of the 12Z Euro, here are a couple of graphics from Maue's website. Decent 1055mb high moving down the Plains at 240hrs. Below-zero temps nearly to northern OK. Temps in the lower 20s into NE Texas (which includes the D-FW area ) Do we believe it this time? I'm still not planting my baby satsuma tree until i'm sure about this predicted outbreak.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECMWF.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/ECTEMP.JPG

It’ll probably change or the cold will go east of us like it does most of the time.

[Ntxw]

It warms my heart (no pun intended) to see all of you cold lovers complaining about the high cost of heating your homes in winter. I propose that we do away with winter and just have 90-deg temps year-round. That would save you all so much money!

In other news, the 12Z EC has a 1060mb high dropping into southern Alberta next Friday morning. Could this be "the big one"? GFS was similar, but shot it ESE and off the East U.S. Coast very quickly.

Oh no sir, most definitely not. Cooling (AC) is still way costlier for most Texans than is heating. Even for those who said heating is more expensive, it is still likely less than their annual cooling cost (AC runs more)!

Well, I was just trying to be considerate of all you poor folks who can't afford your heating bills.

Speaking of the 12Z Euro, here are a couple of graphics from Maue's website. Decent 1055mb high moving down the Plains at 240hrs. Below-zero temps nearly to northern OK. Temps in the lower 20s into NE Texas (which includes the D-FW area ) Do we believe it this time? I'm still not planting my baby satsuma tree until i'm sure about this predicted outbreak.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECMWF.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/ECTEMP.JPG

These weird quasi Nino late fetch sometimes extend out of season cold until April even! But you are probably safe by mid March in Houston. With our luck it likely will crush severe weather season.

[Tireman4]

100+ days out but long long super crazy range models shows a cool/wet summer .

Oh, that's fine, as a "cool" summer still means highs in the 90s. I can survive if the highs don't top 100 every day. As long as the highs are over 85 I'm happy. As for the "wet" part, my lawn will be happy, too. I can dodge a few lightning bolts while cycling.

I find myself in the very unique position of agreeing with wxman57 about "preferred" summer weather. Dear lord, what is this world coming to!

Yeah, me too. Wait, is he mellowing in his old age? This was not the young spritely man who wished for 100's everyday during one Summer.

[wxman57]

Oh, that's fine, as a "cool" summer still means highs in the 90s. I can survive if the highs don't top 100 every day. As long as the highs are over 85 I'm happy. As for the "wet" part, my lawn will be happy, too. I can dodge a few lightning bolts while cycling.

I find myself in the very unique position of agreeing with wxman57 about "preferred" summer weather. Dear lord, what is this world coming to!

Yeah, me too. Wait, is he mellowing in his old age? This was not the young spritely man who wished for 100's everyday during one Summer.

I haven't changed, I always said I hate temps below 80F, not that I loved temps above 100F. Perfect biking temperature is around 85-88F. It's you guys that are finally recognizing that summer is better than winter.

Euro precip type chart for NEXT Thursday night (not tomorrow). Ice near D-FW.

[BrokenGlass]

I find myself in the very unique position of agreeing with wxman57 about "preferred" summer weather. Dear lord, what is this world coming to!

Yeah, me too. Wait, is he mellowing in his old age? This was not the young spritely man who wished for 100's everyday during one Summer.

I haven't changed, I always said I hate temps below 80F, not that I loved temps above 100F. Perfect biking temperature is around 85-88F. It's you guys that are finally recognizing that summer is better than winter.

Euro precip type chart for NEXT Thursday night (not tomorrow). Ice near D-FW.

http://wxman57.com/images/EuroIce.JPG

Time to hop on the DFW Cold Rain Train!!


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[Brent]

Well, I was just trying to be considerate of all you poor folks who can't afford your heating bills.

isnt that nice

Yeah we have central heat here but i dont pay the electric just heard my roommate who does complain about it

[gpsnowman]

I am excited about the late February early March period. Why not? Not much more time for any excitement this winter. As Ntwx, orangeblood, bubba hotep and others have mentioned, something could be brewing for Texas. Might just be another cold rain or something bigger. Ventrice and Maue have posted some nice maps showing potential but still several days away. Possible -removed- on my part but that's about all I have left for this winter!
On a side note my spring break will not be in Santa Fe but rather two nights in Memphis and three in St. Louis, March 8-13. The three days in Missouri will be my last shot at witnessing snow. Hopefully a blizzard cuts across the middle of the country at that time.