Texas Winter 2018-2019

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!

https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif

[bubba hotep]

The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!

https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif

Explain please.

The TPV finally relaxes, a more traditional -NAO look emerges and then locks in through March. Ensemble mean for snow for DFW is over 2" with the control pushing 1'.

[bubba hotep]

Explain please.

Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol

No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!

I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.

[orangeblood]

Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol

No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!

I'm so done with long range models nothing but a bunch of fake news lol

lol throw long range forecasters in there as well....there are just way too many variables to track and follow to have any clue what a 3 month winter forecast will look like. With the ever-changing natural variability in the Earth's climate (IMO has very little to do with Man), I'm starting to think Historical Analogs are extremely overrated as well! Playing Las Vegas is nothing compared to Playing Mother Nature!

[orangeblood]

Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol

No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!

I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.

Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter

[hamburgerman7070]

Orangeblood, our only opportunity is if we can develop a west based nao. Otherwise, like i previously mentioned, good night irene.

[Cpv17]

Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol

No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!

I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.

You’re not alone. I’m right there with ya.

[orangeblood]

Orangeblood, our only opportunity is if we can develop a west based nao. Otherwise, like i previously mentioned, good night irene.

Well the weeklies appear to be hinting at west-based but at the same time get rid of the extreme negative EPO...just don’t want to waste this cold air opportunity we have in front of us now because it might not come back around again this winter

[bubba hotep]

I think the reason we have seen some discrepencies between the AAM and some models not matching up/volatile is likely because of the divergence in the Maritime continent/Indonesia. This is unusual for a Nino event but it should relax and the Pacific takes over. Natural retrogression and STJ amplification. Lots of mumbo jumbo.

https://images2.imgbox.com/97/7e/H9zAtRRK_o.gif

Yea, when you step away from the RMM plots things are kind messy with a combo of low frequency base state destructive interference and Rossby Wave activity. Then add on top of all that the slowly unfolding impacts from the record breaking SSW.

[Ralph's Weather]

You folks up in the D-FW area may need to head south to Pensacola, FL to see some snow next week.

Since it is your fault, you are paying for said trip!!!!

Sorry, that part of the government is currently shut down. No money available. If we DO get lows in the Gulf with cold weather inland, then the snow would be closer to the coast rather than up in NE TX. Snow in the D-FW area would have to come from a different mechanism, or a low much farther north (inland).

You love to bug everyone here with calling DFW NE TX. Get with your TX geographer and takena lesson on TX regions. Haha.

[bubba hotep]

No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!

I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.

Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter

Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.

[orangeblood]

I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.

Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter

Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.

Interesting thought! I’m also curious about this North American Mountain Torque pattern that seems to be controlling things more than usual as well

[hamburgerman7070]

I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.

Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter

Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.

Bubba, so we would be better off without the TPV at all? Am i understanding you correct?

[Haris]

Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol

No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!

I'm so done with long range models nothing but a bunch of fake news lol

The models are the enemy of the people!

[bubba hotep]

Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter

Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.

Bubba, so we would be better off without the TPV at all? Am i understanding you correct?

In it's current position, IMHO, yes. It is doing two things (really one continuous thing but it easier to break it down). 1st, it is preventing any system from amping up as it comes out into the Southern Plains and everything is getting sheared into the base of the TPV and we end up with positive tilted trash. 2nd, on the flip side, it is impacting the N. Atlantic pattern wave breaking and not allowing for a true stable -NAO to setup. Obviously, this is a gross oversimplification of things and a lot more goes into the pattern than this.

[hamburgerman7070]

Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.

Bubba, so we would be better off without the TPV at all? Am i understanding you correct?

In it's current position, IMHO, yes. It is doing two things (really one continuous thing but it easier to break it down). 1st, it is preventing any system from amping up as it comes out into the Southern Plains and everything is getting sheared into the base of the TPV and we end up with positive tilted trash. 2nd, on the flip side, it is impacting the N. Atlantic pattern wave breaking and not allowing for a true stable -NAO to setup. Obviously, this is a gross oversimplification of things and a lot more goes into the pattern than this.

That makes sense. Alot of moving parts like always. So perhaps the quicker the TPV moves from current location then maybe we can get a true stable -nao to form before we run out of time.

[bubba hotep]

Remember all those cold January calls? The weather doesn't care about our predictions but maybe we rally over the next 10 days?

[Cpv17]

Remember all those cold January calls? The weather doesn't care about our predictions but maybe we rally over the next 10 days?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxfEWV4UcAAkYkX.jpg

The next 10 days look pretty cold for us, especially if that front the Euro shows verifies. The CPC seems to think it will.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The warm up i think may have alot to do with the MJO progressing through a not so favorable phase.

[orangeblood]

The warm up i think may have alot to do with the MJO progressing through a not so favorable phase.

And a wxman57 impenetrable wall before the cold Feb phases 8-1-2...not catching many breaks this winter