Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Captmorg70]

Looks like our best hope is the Euro for Sat. It has the low tracking along I-30 vs most other models having it north of the Red River. Euro shows flurries to an inch as you move north from I-20 to the Red River. Other models not so good though.

So far this winter, I’d say it’s best to have the Euro on your side. Most of the individual members are similar to the OP run too. Also the 12z 3k NAM has a similar snow path to the Euro.

[northjaxpro]

Ridge building on the west coast then, too. It's not cross-Polar flow, but it could bring some sub-freezing air to Texas by early February. However, if that ridge gets too strong along the west coast then it might shut off the southern storm track and we'd be left with a dry cold. Delicate balance.

This is what the recent GFS and ensembles have been trending towards the past couple of runs. Sure looks like it is hinting at + PNA in the long range.


We will have to see if the GFS continues with this trend........

[gboudx]

Don't give up on winter (i.e., snow) just yet in the D-FW area. There are still 2 months left of winter. The pattern remains good for TX snow with that active southern stream. We just need to get some colder air in place ahead of these storms. I'm not seeing any big snow chance through January, though. Euro builds a pretty deep upper low over southern Hudson Bay by day 10, with northerly flow out of NW Canada. Ridge building on the west coast then, too. It's not cross-Polar flow, but it could bring some sub-freezing air to Texas by early February. However, if that ridge gets too strong along the west coast then it might shut off the southern storm track and we'd be left with a dry cold. Delicate balance.

That's all great, but you built a wall because you're mean and don't want us to have any fun. End thread.

[Lagreeneyes03]

It’s so hard to be optimistic. I just want to throw in the towel and call it quits for winter, but the rest of it looks promising and I’m grasping on, barely. I hope snow can come my way soon...

After the disappointment of the past few winters, I've pretty much thrown in the towel for winter precip here in North Texas in general. I'm not even picky, I don't need snow. A good old fashioned sleet storm would be fine with me, but it doesn't seem to be happening. I said before, the "cold and snowy pattern" keeps getting pushed out 10 days, 10 more days, etc until it doesn't exist anymore. Bring on Spring and Summer!

[Tireman4]

Don't give up on winter (i.e., snow) just yet in the D-FW area. There are still 2 months left of winter. The pattern remains good for TX snow with that active southern stream. We just need to get some colder air in place ahead of these storms. I'm not seeing any big snow chance through January, though. Euro builds a pretty deep upper low over southern Hudson Bay by day 10, with northerly flow out of NW Canada. Ridge building on the west coast then, too. It's not cross-Polar flow, but it could bring some sub-freezing air to Texas by early February. However, if that ridge gets too strong along the west coast then it might shut off the southern storm track and we'd be left with a dry cold. Delicate balance.

That's all great, but you built a wall because you're mean and don't want us to have any fun. End thread.

Yeah, the Snow League Commissioner is not happy with the Heat Miser one. He has ordered penalty reviews on him on all calls this Winter.

[wxman57]

Models continue to trend less cold with Saturday's front. There really is no Arctic air at all in western Canada. I always say - "look at the source" of the cold air. In fact, the air up there is relatively mild for mid-January. Latest ECMWF doesn't even take north Houston (Bush) below freezing this Sunday/Monday. Can't rule out a light freeze, but this is no Arctic blast.

Sorry about building the wall. It was necessary for national security. The Canadians just cannot control their air.

Latest EC forecasts for Houston & D-FW:

[utweather]

Use this time to improve your own personal forecasting skills. Someone said the models aren't even getting the temps right a few hours in advance. When I was a kid I would dial time and temperature all the time and get hourly updates from NOAA weather radio. I made my own charts of temp trends. I would record radar on VHS tapes and fast forward to make loops. Spend lots of time outdoors looking at clouds and I think my extrapolations would be more accurate back then compared to some of the futurecasts I've seen not too long ago. When I started seeing computer models I think it was AVN or something similiar maybe and I started getting that bias in my head and I think made me less accurate. I mean it was a high tech pretty model it had to be right. I would get amnesia after it was wrong and hoped the next one would be right. And pretty soon I stopped thinking/using my own past skills. Eventually I quit looking at it. With forums now I stop by every now and then to check and the same adrelanine pumping maps are there that don't verify. So I just take it day by day and try to rely on my intuition and try to remember from past experiences. But like the weatherman says you need some arctic air in the northern plains and southwest Canada. With today's technology you can read the nws discussions from all those offices and get their outlooks and reasonings. This is kinda like the expertise from the old tv meterogists from back in the day. But even then they mention models too much.

[dhweather]

I put the last eight 0Z runs of the ECMWF for 0Z on Saturday into an animated gif to watch the differences. As it works towards today's run, watch the changes.

[stormlover2013]

this is why I always tell everyone to not get caught up with model runs 7-10 days out, get caught up in runs more like 2-3 days out.

[spencer817]

Seeing people in the NE complain about 3-6 inches of snow just makes me angry. There are plenty of people who dont ever see snow and plenty of people who see it way too often out of the year. They should be thankful just to have it much better than we do!

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian and GFS have trended slower and deeper with the next system around the middle part of next week. Canadian now shows snow in the Hill Country. I wouldn't give up on this system yet.

[Cerlin]

12z Canadian and GFS have trended slower and deeper with the next system around the middle part of next week. Canadian now shows snow in the Hill Country. I wouldn't give up on this system yet.

I’m gonna learn from my mistakes and not really give much attention to this storm until after the weekend when it’s around 3 days out.

[mcheer23]

12z Canadian and GFS have trended slower and deeper with the next system around the middle part of next week. Canadian now shows snow in the Hill Country. I wouldn't give up on this system yet.

GFS shows snow in Chambers...Jefferson and Orange counties.

[gboudx]

12z Canadian and GFS have trended slower and deeper with the next system around the middle part of next week. Canadian now shows snow in the Hill Country. I wouldn't give up on this system yet.

I’m gonna learn from my mistakes and not really give much attention to this storm until after the weekend when it’s around 3 days out.

Just to be safe, change "3 days out" to "3 minutes out".

[Cerlin]

Not putting my trust in it because on Sunday (6 days out) it was showing snow for DFW on the 19th...I ain’t buying it until it’s close.

[mcheer23]

FV3-GFS also has some snow across SE Texas

[orangeblood]

When it comes to winter weather in our part of the world, it's an extremely patient game and don't take anything for granted! Models continue to show a step down towards a colder and colder North American pattern....all signs continue to point towards the 2nd half of winter delivering the goods

Pretty amazing to see Barrow, Alaska to Brownsville, TX and everywhere in between significantly below normal

[CaptinCrunch]

Well I guess it could be worse...lol

NWS FTW

Now for what everyone is wanting to know regarding chances for
wintry weather north of I-20 on Saturday. Some wrap around
moisture is expected in wake of our departing mid-level
disturbance and arctic front on Saturday. Sans the European model,
all other models draw in top-drying into the region quickly with
40-50 knot downglide. As such, I will keep only slight chances for
a brief bout very light snow or snow flurries north of I-20. We
do not expect snow to be widespread enough to result in any
accumulations along the immediate Red River Valley due to the
aforementioned strong downglide and dry air advection by Saturday
afternoon.

Brisk north winds and clearing skies will occur Saturday evening
with wind speeds settling down Sunday morning. The dry and dense
arctic air will likely result in most areas falling well into the
20s. As such, wind chill values don`t appear as brutal as
previously thought, but values in teens and lower 20s by sunrise
Sunday will still make for a frigid morning. I did remain on the
cold side of guidance Sunday, despite the return of light south
winds 10 mph or less across the western half of the area by
afternoon. Despite the plentiful sunshine expected, I have highs
only creeping into the 40s, which is still not as cold as
previously thought yesterday. You just really never know how
quickly shallow arctic airmasses modify.

[Cerlin]

If the models are overestimating our dry slot behind the front, which is possible, we could be in store for something, maybe a dusting.

[Brent]

Euro is no longer cold enough in DFW and is raining Saturday for the ultimate troll