Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

At least we have the 46 day eps control! LOLOL

[Cpv17]

0z FV3 is very cold in the long range, but most of it is east of Texas. We just get a glancing blow.

Edit: the 6z is even colder yet...actually the 6z FV3 is unreal

[Portastorm]

FV-GFS 0z and 6z runs saying “Game On!” by MLK Day.

[Cerlin]

Things are looking really good in a couple of weeks...and yes I knocked on wood!

[bubba hotep]

I wonder how the FV3 handles the MJO? Right now the Euro EPS and GEFS are showing pretty different progressions of the MJO over the next couple of weeks. The EPS is trending towards the MJO emerging over the Indian Ocean in P2/3 and P3 is actually a pretty cold look during January +ENSO. The EPS would seem to favor cold sooner but the GEFS would seem to favor cold in the longer term with the MJO emerging over the WPAC.

EPS


GEFS


+ENSO January P3


00z Euro D10


Our next potential Winter Wx system? It is out beyond D10 (shocking!) but at lest, for this one run, we have something to track. How does the timing work? Can we get moisture in before the air mass moderates too much?

[bubba hotep]

While we wait for more signs of winter wx, it looks like DFW is going to have another above normal precipitation month here in January. The Jan avg for DFW is 2.13" and we are already at 1.13" and models are showing another 1.5-3" with this next system. WPC seems to agree that N. Texas will be the rainfall jackpot. I feel like this should be generating more chatter but I guess we are just used to the rain now lol. There is a lot of talk about the shift to a warmer background state but it is increasingly looking like there is a wet shift in Texas.

[Ntxw]

While we wait for more signs of winter wx, it looks like DFW is going to have another above normal precipitation month here in January. The Jan avg for DFW is 2.13" and we are already at 1.13" and models are showing another 1.5-3" with this next system. WPC seems to agree that N. Texas will be the rainfall jackpot. I feel like this should be generating more chatter but I guess we are just used to the rain now lol. There is a lot of talk about the shift to a warmer background state but it is increasingly looking like there is a wet shift in Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/2PynYyF/QPF-Clip.png

What's another top 5 wet year . We've basically seen at least 1 top 5 wettest "season" of some sort since 2015. Warmer air holds more water and is more tropical. So not surprising.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS doesn't really deliver anything interesting and doesn't show any serious cold up in Canada until the end of the run.

[harp]

12z GFS doesn't really deliver anything interesting and doesn't show any serious cold up in Canada until the end of the run.

Yes, but it's advancing south all along the Canadian border.

[bubba hotep]

[orangeblood]

12z GFS doesn't really deliver anything interesting and doesn't show any serious cold up in Canada until the end of the run.

Stepping down!!!....Almost the Entire Continent is going into the freezer it appears

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS doesn't really deliver anything interesting and doesn't show any serious cold up in Canada until the end of the run.

Stepping down!!!....Almost the Entire Continent is going into the freezer it appears

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019010812/gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_44.png

GEFS is pretty different than the operational for sure!

[Ntxw]

We are starting to see higher MSLP on the guidance overall which means cold air building source region. It will be a primer if we can get delivery method.

[snowballzzz]

I'll be in Northern Minnesota at Lake of The Woods Jan 23rd through Jan 27th. Looking like it's going to be a cold one up there..

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS 5-day 500mb Avg, look at the high lats... Need the subtropical jet to keep pumping moisture.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z GEFS 5-day 500mb Avg, look at the high lats... Need the subtropical jet to keep pumping moisture.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019010812/gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

That has great potential. Question is are we going to see split flow or NW flow that chart kinda splits the difference so there is hope.

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter is starting later than most had forecasted so I wont be surprised to see this winter carry into mid-March. As some have stated Febuary is looking cold no matter how you stack it up.

[Cpv17]

It’s currently 74 degrees here in Wharton at 2:20pm on January 8th..crazy!! I suppose it could be worse though.

[weatherdude1108]

Mid 70s, approaching 80 here.

I was out in the yard yesterday, and smelled something strong and fragrant. I checked, and it was the little Olive tree we have in the corner of the backyard. There are little white flowers growing all over it. Olive tree did that last Winter too, then no flowers in late spring or Summer/Fall. Also a few rosebushes with new shoots.

Also had a couple bushes flowering a little bit in different areas of the yard, along with some bushes around campus (like Salvias) putting out some flowers.

I mean, nice for outdoor activities that need to get done, but...it's JANUARY. Plants are confused, and are going to get a freezer shock come February/March, based on my local history.

[harp]

I wonder why the 12Z FV3 GFS didn't run?