#45 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:49 pm
WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 98.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 98.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.2N 97.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.8N 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 10.9N 93.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.9N 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.6N 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 98.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM NORTHEAST
OF PHUKET, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER LAND IN THE MALAY PENINSULA AND ABOUT TO EXIT INTO
THE ANDAMAN SEA. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED AS IT
DRAGGED ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS INTACT, AS EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP, AND WHERE THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND RCTP OF T2.5 AND T3.0, RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
TC 36W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
ANDAMAN SEA WILL BE MARGINAL AND MAY SUPPORT A SUSTAINED 40-KNOT SYSTEM AT BEST.
INCREASING VWS AS TC 36W MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IT,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, OR SOONER. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL TRACK WITH NAVGEM AS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER ON THE
LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREADING AFTER TAU 72.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN
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