Texas Winter 2018-2019

[dhweather]

In 5188 hours, the GFS has a CAT 5 N THE GULF !!!!!!

[TheProfessor]

I've been pretty mum with this storm, but right now this does look like a classic overrunning ice event(if the surface is cold enough). You have a trough closing off moving west to east, but before some of the colder dynamics arrive you have over running due to warm air advection over a cold layer. Next thing you know you have freezing rain and sleet. The 0z Nam is definitely concerning with the ice totals. Here's the biggest difference I see between the 18z Nam and the 0z Nam. When I was at the NWS today we were kind of talking about how the mid levels are very dry on the 18z NAM, which would stunt ice growth. Now if you look at the 0z NAM it's much more saturated. Now right now this won't make a huge difference because the skew-t is a classic one for freezing rain. However, if the NAM is too warm and the skew-t becomes more favorable for snow, then you will need those ice crystals to grow and become snowflakes.

Another thing I'm noticing is that both the Icon and the NAM have closed bowling ball lows that move through North Texas or southern Oklahoma. Both models produce snow on the northern side of this upper low. It will be interesting to see where this low ends up being placed. I guess the ultimate dream for North Texas would be for this low to dig a bit more go neutral tilt throwing WAA over a cold dome where the event starts off as sleet, then as the low moves over a band of snow develops and drops a couple of inches over ice. Probably won't happen, but would be a cool, similar repeat to what happened during the Superbowl storm precip wise.

[Texas Snow]

When I was at the NWS today

Do go on...

[TheProfessor]

When I was at the NWS today

Do go on...

Ah it's nothing big lol. I just went back a few times this winter to shadow and help them with some projects. It's been a rough couple of weeks for them if you can imagine.

[Brent]

Euro looking like the GFS... frozen precip stays NW of DFW, nice snowstorm in OKC

[Cerlin]

Euro looking like the GFS... frozen precip stays NW of DFW, nice snowstorm in OKC

Of course, ugh.

[TheProfessor]

The Euro is definitely warm, but it's not far off from a big time ice event. If it's underestimating the amount of cold at the surface, things could get iffy. We're getting to a point where we should be looking at short range models for surface temperatures instead of the global models but it's definitely a trend that needs to be watched.

[Jarodm12]

Where I am and for much of north Texas and southern Oklahoma it looks like a major ice storm unfortunately

[Cerlin]

To deviate from the stress of late night model watching—nice heavy rain in Frisco right now. Quite a bit of rain already tonight and I hope this level of precipitation (albeit “whiter”) happens again on wednesday!

[Jarodm12]

Nam just backed off too warm, well there you have it folks no model support any longer goodnight

[Shoshana]

Looks like here in Austin it will be another cold rainy day Wednesday....

[gpsnowman]

If the system coming in Tues/Wed can come in 3 or 4 degrees colder we could be in for a lengthy winter event. But that is a big if. Still time for that to happen.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Looks like here in Austin it will be another cold rainy day Wednesday....

Same in Dallas. All day rain with temps in the mid-30s. What a waste.

[wxman57]

Cold and rain for everyone. The worst winter weather possible. Miserable.

[Cerlin]

How can DFW be so unlucky? What do we have to do to lift our curse??

[utweather]

How can DFW be so unlucky? What do we have to do to lift our curse??

Move north???
I'm actually looking forward to retirement so that I can hop on a plane like the weather channel chasers and get ahead of the winter storms. I want to experience lake effect snow one time also

[opticsguy]

12Z NAM 12k coming in colder

[Jarodm12]

Lol latest 12ZNAM AND rGEM say " not so fast!"

[CYCLONE MIKE]

In 5188 hours, the GFS has a CAT 5 N THE GULF !!!!!!

At this point would just be happy if it was showing some signs of a real winter in 1000 hours. As of now we are sitting at 74 with humidity at 85%. Wore short sleeve shirts and shorts on Christmas Day as well.

[gboudx]

Just as I said not long ago....These models are all crap. Let's just rub some sticks together and throw them in the air and say hey it's gonna snow.

I'm becoming a big proponent of the look out the window method

Now you’re coming around to my approach. I read the comments here and I stay even keel no matter what the prevailing thought is leaning towards. Fool me once, shame on you(models). Fool me twice, well you know. Nowcast works for me.