Texas Winter 2018-2019

[EnnisTx]

The CMC and GFS group (compared to the Euro) are not as amped. See Bubba's posts above.

Really the Euro is kind of doing its thing right now mostly, will it win with its medium range prowess? 12z Ukmet looks more like the Euro than the prior bunch. Guess we'll find out in an hour if it was a fluke run or something possible.

I'm going with it being just another one of those model runs that dashes our collective hopes and dreams of the fluffy white stuff.

[EnnisTx]

Well getting ready to head out to the Cotton Bowl playoff Semi Final between Notre Dame and Clemson. Hoping to see some good trends develop for Wednesday. I'll be checking in!

[Brent]

I'm waiting for the Euro to let me down, I like that its the one showing it but that just probably means it'll disappear next run...

[bubba hotep]

I'm waiting for the Euro to let me down, I like that its the one showing it but that just probably means it'll disappear next run...

The thing that gives me hope is that there has been a steady trend on the Euro towards this solution vs a one-off run. The Wednesday system is moving onshore in WCAN and should get some better sampling. The wildcard is the NPAC wave that is still a ways out. Also, we are moving into the Euro's wheelhouse, don't fail us now!

[Brent]

here we go, lot of precip overspreading the 35 corridor on the Euro Wednesday afternoon

snowing in DFW Wednesday Night again

looks very much like the 0z there would definitely be significant accumulations

[gpsnowman]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy. This is better than Christmas morning!!!!! I am such a child, I love it.

[Brent]

definitely gonna be a bullseye over the metroplex

Is this really happening guys

[Texas Snow]

I will say I am intrigued, however I’ll withhold a Happy Dance until more agreement starts to show up.

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to see what FWD does with the afternoon package. Probably play it conservative and hope for some model agreement at 00z. It is an interesting time frame when it comes to public hazard messaging given that most people will be occupied with activities on NYE and NYD. If this holds, I could see a lot of the old, "this snow storm came out of no where!" lol

[Ntxw]

Hopefully the Euro has latched on. Sometimes when it does it can be deadly. As I mentioned earlier the UKMET is closer to the Euro than the other bunch. Too bad we're not yet in NAM range.

[bubba hotep]

For those tracking, that is 3 Euro runs in a row with snow in the DFW area and the event has moved inside of 5 days. This run did make me a bit nervous around hour 72ish when the system started taking on a positive elongated look vs the faster cutoff at 00z. However, it closed nicely and there ended up not being a big difference once the system kicked out. Really want to see another tick up on the Euro EPS.

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully the Euro has latched on. Sometimes when it does it can be deadly. As I mentioned earlier the UKMET is closer to the Euro than the other bunch. Too bad we're not yet in NAM range.

At 72hrs, the 12k NAM is closer to the Euro than the GFS/FV3 but by 84hrs it takes on the elongated positive tilted look of the GFS/FV3. I'll feel a lot better when we start seeing some crazy NAM clown maps!

[spencer817]

This thread gonna be hopping after that euro I watch this thread 24/7 but now it's worth commenting on

[bubba hotep]

DFW was at 37F as of the 1:00 pm report. Ntxw pointed out the possibility that DFW might bust low and stay below 40 today.

[Haris]

I wonder if the global computer models are a touch too warm like always with these fronts. If so, better chances for frozen precipitation and accumulation across the Austin metro IMHO

[Ntxw]

I wonder if the global computer models are a touch too warm like always with these fronts. If so, better chances for frozen precipitation and accumulation across the Austin metro IMHO

It's possible. The latest Euro run has a mix going for Austin and snow in the western counties.

[bubba hotep]

Another thing for Wednesday, the Euro is cold

Surface temps are at or below freezing when precipitation starts falling in DFW with a very borderline warm layer around 850mb, like right around freezing but it rapidly transitions colder. Then it is ice cold above that. Taken verbatim, some folks might lose a bit of snow to sleet but most of what falls should be snow

[Mr. Weather]

What’s the chances of some of this making its way into Houston?

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS mean and Control look good. A slight uptick in the number of members showing winter wx, maybe pushing 60% now. This is really good agreement across the Euros for an event that is inside of 5 days.

[Ntxw]

Another thing for Wednesday, the Euro is cold

Surface temps are at or below freezing when precipitation starts falling in DFW with a very borderline warm layer around 850mb, like right around freezing but it rapidly transitions colder. Then it is ice cold above that. Taken verbatim, some folks might lose a bit of snow to sleet but most of what falls should be snow

To add this is the period of the year where everything is ripe for accumulation. Storm will come through during sundown and dark hours, cold most of the week prior, and sun angle is still very low. Temps at the surface on the Euro is near 30 falling into 20s which makes it easy to stick.

If cards go right, luck is drawn, and dominos fall where they should we might see accums similar to what happened in March 2015 but in a more favorable climo period.