11 PM advisory=14.5n-47.8w now moving WNW

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... v_nt4.html

A change in the track to the left at this advisory as the storm is now moving WNW.

[*StOrmsPr*]

hey cycloneye or anyone


if the center was at 14.4N 47.0W at 5pm
and now is at 14.5N 47.8W

is that really a wnw track???not an expert,not saying they are wrong btw.

[cycloneye]

Well storms maybe the 5 PM position was not the right one where they said it was.

[Stormsfury]

hey cycloneye or anyone


if the center was at 14.4N 47.0W at 5pm
and now is at 14.5N 47.8W

is that really a wnw track???not an expert,not saying they are wrong btw.

That may be because of a slight repositioning of the center. Haven't read the discussion just yet, but even IR-2 Imagery (Shortwave) isn't of much help except that Nicklaus may have released yet another large arc cloud (outflow boundary). IMHO, the center is just west of the new convection and actually is located a little north of the advisory, closer to 14.8ºN and 47.5ºW. But without visible imagery, can't be sure at all.

SF

[*StOrmsPr*]

ohhh ok thanks cycloneye!!

[Stormsfury]

Here's the latest discussion regarding Nicklaus

000
WTNT44 KNHC 170230
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE ON IR OR NIGHT-VIS
IMAGERY...THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE NICHOLAS HAS BEEN MOVING TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES STRONGLY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS NOT
UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT RATHER IS NEAR OR BEYOND ITS
SOUTHWEST EDGE. A MICROWAVE PASS...ALSO AT 21Z...IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS LOCATION. IF THIS ANALYSIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS RE-ASSERTING ITSELF AND NICHOLAS IS NOT AS
WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 300/8 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE FOR NICHOLAS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HOW THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR WILL
DETERMINE BOTH THE INTENSITY AND THE TRACK. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE
LOWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
SHOWS NICHOLAS REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER... TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO EITHER
TAKE A STRONGER SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...OR LEAVE A
SHEARED SYSTEM BEHIND ON A MORE WESTERLY PATH. THE FORMER OPTION
IS REPRESENTED BY THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATTER BY THE SHALLOW AND
MEDIUM BAM AND THE GFS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT NICHOLAS WILL
OSCILLATE BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH
SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS IN THE SHEAR AND DEEP CONVECTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY VIRTUE OF THE SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST... ESPECIALLY BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...IS NOT REAL HIGH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.5N 47.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.4N 48.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 16.4N 49.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 17.2N 50.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 51.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 53.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 54.0W 55 KT

[*StOrmsPr*]

hey cycloneye or anyone


if the center was at 14.4N 47.0W at 5pm
and now is at 14.5N 47.8W

is that really a wnw track???not an expert,not saying they are wrong btw.

That may be because of a slight repositioning of the center. Haven't read the discussion just yet, but even IR-2 Imagery (Shortwave) isn't of much help except that Nicklaus may have released yet another large arc cloud (outflow boundary). IMHO, the center is just west of the new convection and actually is located a little north of the advisory, closer to 14.8ºN and 47.5ºW. But without visible imagery, can't be sure at all.

SF

Ok Thanks Stormsfury!

[cycloneye]

Interesting what they say about lack of confidence by days 4 and 5 in the forecast track.

[ColdFront77]

I just read the National Hurricane Center's Discussion on Tropical Storm Nicholas, that dixiebreeze posted four minutes before Luis did; it indeed indicates that the center of the storm was repositioned.