Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman22]

The 12z FV3 is more aggressive with next weeks system fwiw

[Brent]

The 12z FV3 is more aggressive with next weeks system fwiw

if only

[Yukon Cornelius]

Rained and rained and rained all day and evening. The already saturated ground from 2 weeks ago is now a giant lake that I live in the middle of. The stock tanks are all overflowed over the dams. I had to go out this morning and put orange arm floaties on all the cows. Thats more than enough rain for this winter, now let’s focus on this snow and ice that every forecast had been going on and on about.

[rwfromkansas]

Nice. Except not much over Tarrant. Lol...lots to change, and the next run will evaporate it.

[Brent]

the Euro is so cold but no snow moisture suppressed to the SE

[orangeblood]

the Euro is so cold but no snow moisture suppressed to the SE

Need the cold first, then lets worry about moisture....still plenty of time to find it!!!

[Quixotic]

the Euro is so cold but no snow moisture suppressed to the SE

Need the cold first, then lets worry about moisture....still plenty of time to find it!!!

Ha! I always say that.

[orangeblood]

the Euro is so cold but no snow moisture suppressed to the SE

Need the cold first, then lets worry about moisture....still plenty of time to find it!!!

Ha! I always say that.

Latest Euro Ensembles look really interesting for next Wednesday Jan 2nd, several members have found the moisture and have quite a winter storm across the State

[Cpv17]

Need the cold first, then lets worry about moisture....still plenty of time to find it!!!

Ha! I always say that.

Latest Euro Ensembles look really interesting for next Wednesday Jan 2nd, several members have found the moisture and have quite a winter storm across the State

Sweet, but then after next weeks cold snap the models are wanting to torch most of the country

[hriverajr]

Ha! I always say that.

Latest Euro Ensembles look really interesting for next Wednesday Jan 2nd, several members have found the moisture and have quite a winter storm across the State

Sweet, but then after next weeks cold snap the models are wanting to torch most of the country

European does not...

[Cpv17]

Latest Euro Ensembles look really interesting for next Wednesday Jan 2nd, several members have found the moisture and have quite a winter storm across the State

Sweet, but then after next weeks cold snap the models are wanting to torch most of the country

European does not...

But the Euro only goes 10 days out. The FV3 has a torch from hour 270 to hour 372, but then again I don’t believe the models past 3 or 4 days anyways

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS through Monday morning is a bit stronger with all the features (NE Pac ridge, Greenland ridge, SE ridge and western trough).

[hriverajr]

Sweet, but then after next weeks cold snap the models are wanting to torch most of the country

European does not...

But the Euro only goes 10 days out. The FV3 has a torch from hour 270 to hour 372, but then again I don’t believe the models past 3 or 4 days anyways

Your getting into lottery land there.. hehe

[Cpv17]

ABC13 forecast in Houston has highs in the 50’s for next Wednesday while the Euro and FV3 have temps 10-20 degrees colder do they even look at the models when making a forecast? Makes you wonder

[Brent]

ABC13 forecast in Houston has highs in the 50’s for next Wednesday while the Euro and FV3 have temps 10-20 degrees colder do they even look at the models when making a forecast? Makes you wonder

I think some of them hang closer to climo half the time til its obvious

[Cpv17]

ABC13 forecast in Houston has highs in the 50’s for next Wednesday while the Euro and FV3 have temps 10-20 degrees colder do they even look at the models when making a forecast? Makes you wonder

I think some of them hang closer to climo half the time til its obvious

Yeah, I believe so too cuz I see it all the time year after year, but I personally believe that KHOU channel 11 met David Paul is the best in the Houston area. He’s definitely my favorite met from this area.

[gpsnowman]

ABC13 forecast in Houston has highs in the 50’s for next Wednesday while the Euro and FV3 have temps 10-20 degrees colder do they even look at the models when making a forecast? Makes you wonder

I think some of them hang closer to climo half the time til its obvious

That's why I am not big on the 10 day local forecast. Yes, pattern changes with precip chances can be picked up that far out at times but temp forecasts that far out are a crapshoot. I also think they stick with climo most of the time with nothing extreme in either direction. The seven day is about as far as it needs to go in my opinion.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z FV3 is more aggressive with next weeks system fwiw

https://i.ibb.co/NyNYkgx/fv3p-mslp-pcpn-frzn-eus-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/wdzzV9x/fv3p-mslp-pcpn-frzn-eus-26.png

18z FV3 is slightly slower and deeper with the system at 500mb than the 12z. A little less precip, but I don't think these details are very well-resolvable at 6 days out. 18z GFS shows a similar, albeit weaker, system at 500mb to the FV3 after showing poor run-to-run consistency over the prior several runs.

[Quixotic]

I’ve lived here forever. 46 years. I see the pattern coming. We are going to get cold. The moisture will come during that time. We may not be gold but we’re certainly sorting silver. Faith.

[South Texas Storms]

The latest Euro Weeklies look chilly in January, with near to below normal precipitation.