Texas Winter 2018-2019

[ztshanklin]

End of year could really be interesting.

[South Texas Storms]

End of year could really be interesting.

Yes, it's certainly looking interesting right now. Still plenty of time to watch, but I'm liking the trends!

By the way, welcome to Storm2K!

[orangeblood]

EPS and GEFS rolling forward are now beginning to show the big -NAO/-AO over the polar regions and NATL. Also possible is the reflection of SSW, while I don't think we see severe cold with this SSW it will likely dislodge more cold air into the -NAO pattern. The Aleutian low also retrogrades from Alaska to form the snowier/colder weak-mod Nino look that we had a taste of late November and early December. Dec 28-31 will give a glimpse of colder air as the Pacific buckles some and less zonal, but the real fun likely happens the second week of January.

If you want to see a repeat of '78 then having the Hudson->Greenland west based NAO go crazy helps

https://images2.imgbox.com/8f/b7/Qh4Vl8io_o.jpg

Yep, and don't underestimate this SSW...there appears to now be consensus with all Models that this will become a Major SSW with a PV split around the 30th +/-. And it appears the weakened main portion of the Vortex might be coming to our side of the world, if that kind of block gets locked in and the PV is underneath, look out below - Jan 2019 is becoming really really interesting!!!

[Captmorg70]

Hey so maybe some advice from folks that know NM better:

My family has a ski trip planned to Angel Fire the 26-30. I know it’s still a week out but trend looks like it could snow some in Angel Fire. How are the roads up that way? I’m assuming better than here in NTX when we have winter weather

[losf1981]

colder than forecasted this morning. The forecast was for a low of 35, it’s currently 29.

Seems like this has been happening a lot this year for our area.

[Ntxw]

As for next weekend, there will be some colder air to work with. Once again timing is key. I think a faster solution like the 0z ECMWF gives us the best chance.

SE ridge favors cold to move more down the plains rather than to the east compared to early December.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS arctic blast coming January 1st. 1047 mb high in southern Canada.

[orangeblood]

Hey so maybe some advice from folks that know NM better:

My family has a ski trip planned to Angel Fire the 26-30. I know it’s still a week out but trend looks like it could snow some in Angel Fire. How are the roads up that way? I’m assuming better than here in NTX when we have winter weather

In that particular area, it appears the snow might be measured in feet during that time frame...drive safe!!

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS arctic blast coming January 1st. 1047 mb high in southern Canada.

Along with several chances for frozen precipitation across central TX during the first few days of 2019.

[Ntxw]

Beyond truncation 12z GFS has a -EPO cold dump around the New Year. That's too far out to even seriously consider right now, but I do see merits in the pattern with lower EPO and the turn from +PNA to -PNA and SE ridge. CMC doesn't go out as far but does show source region loading up for something to move.

So at least there is a chance!

[Ntxw]

12z FV3 is probably the more extreme cold dome outcome for next weekend. It has the strongest HP of the models with plains oriented cold spill, and of course SE ridge. Conventional wisdom in a pattern like that with -PNA you'd think ice storm.

[Ntxw]

Hey so maybe some advice from folks that know NM better:

My family has a ski trip planned to Angel Fire the 26-30. I know it’s still a week out but trend looks like it could snow some in Angel Fire. How are the roads up that way? I’m assuming better than here in NTX when we have winter weather

In that particular area, it appears the snow might be measured in feet during that time frame...drive safe!!

Yeah the big SW trough pattern is treacherous weather in the high elevations of Northern New Mexico. Likely a lot of snow.

[weatherdude1108]

12z GFS arctic blast coming January 1st. 1047 mb high in southern Canada.

Along with several chances for frozen precipitation across central TX during the first few days of 2019.

I just saw these 12Z GFS slides. Granted they are 288-234 hours out.

[Captmorg70]

Hey so maybe some advice from folks that know NM better:

My family has a ski trip planned to Angel Fire the 26-30. I know it’s still a week out but trend looks like it could snow some in Angel Fire. How are the roads up that way? I’m assuming better than here in NTX when we have winter weather

In that particular area, it appears the snow might be measured in feet during that time frame...drive safe!!

Sorta what I’m afraid of...

[Captmorg70]

Hey so maybe some advice from folks that know NM better:

My family has a ski trip planned to Angel Fire the 26-30. I know it’s still a week out but trend looks like it could snow some in Angel Fire. How are the roads up that way? I’m assuming better than here in NTX when we have winter weather

In that particular area, it appears the snow might be measured in feet during that time frame...drive safe!!

Yeah the big SW trough pattern is treacherous weather in the high elevations of Northern New Mexico. Likely a lot of snow.

If I make make it. I’ll take some pics and we can pretend it’s NTX

[bubba hotep]

EPS and GEFS rolling forward are now beginning to show the big -NAO/-AO over the polar regions and NATL. Also possible is the reflection of SSW, while I don't think we see severe cold with this SSW it will likely dislodge more cold air into the -NAO pattern. The Aleutian low also retrogrades from Alaska to form the snowier/colder weak-mod Nino look that we had a taste of late November and early December. Dec 28-31 will give a glimpse of colder air as the Pacific buckles some and less zonal, but the real fun likely happens the second week of January.

If you want to see a repeat of '78 then having the Hudson->Greenland west based NAO go crazy helps

https://images2.imgbox.com/8f/b7/Qh4Vl8io_o.jpg

Yep, and don't underestimate this SSW...there appears to now be consensus with all Models that this will become a Major SSW with a PV split around the 30th +/-. And it appears the weakened main portion of the Vortex might be coming to our side of the world, if that kind of block gets locked in and the PV is underneath, look out below - Jan 2019 is becoming really really interesting!!!

Dr. Amy Butler reminds us via Twitter today that not all SSW events work out good for us. She highlighted the Dec 2001 event that had a similar setup to now but ended up not delivering the cold.



However, typically SSW events do deliver the cold.



Dr. Butler is very informative and tweets a lot of her research at @DrAHButler

[bubba hotep]

The anticipated active pattern is fast approaching and looks to match up pretty well with what the long range ENSO analogs were showing. There are still a lot of kinks to workout given that the after Christmas system looks to be sourced from multiple pieces of energy and the following system is still out over the NPAC. The ejection of the 1st system out over the Plains will draw down a decent slug of cold air for the next system to work with. As many others have pointed out over the last couple of days, "Time to buckle up!"

[Haris]

the euro is showing over 3.5" of rain here mid week in Austin with cape near 3,000

The gfs is 1/2" . Fun

[Ralph's Weather]

Hey so maybe some advice from folks that know NM better:

My family has a ski trip planned to Angel Fire the 26-30. I know it’s still a week out but trend looks like it could snow some in Angel Fire. How are the roads up that way? I’m assuming better than here in NTX when we have winter weather

My family has a place on the other side of the mountain, near Sipapu, they do an awesome job with he roads up there, but at some point no amount of plowing can keep up. If rates are reasonable and temps are in the 20s the roads should not be terrible especially if there are breaks in the snow showers. It is so unpredictable up there, I have seen a foot on a day with 10% chance of snow showers. For your sake Angel Fire does tend to have lower totals than some of the other resorts in northern NM, though as always in the mountains snow totals are very dependant on the wind direction. Prepare for your car to be red from the chemicals they put down on the roads. Enjoy I hope to get up there later this winter.

[Cpv17]

Man, the models are really pounding the southeast with a ton of rain. I’m jealous.