Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ntxw]

The 0z nam what a snow band just barely NE of Dallas.
http://i67.tinypic.com/1675hdt.png

Wylie, by any chance?
Nevermind... I see Wylie is covered. Let's keep that going!!!

Now this is the same nam that buried OKC last week only to not see a flake but i feel like this is definitely a better chance

Yeah we're still talking LaLaLand NAM though it looks good. Deformation band location is dependent on track of strong ULL.

[Brent]

Wylie, by any chance?
Nevermind... I see Wylie is covered. Let's keep that going!!!

Now this is the same nam that buried OKC last week only to not see a flake but i feel like this is definitely a better chance

Yeah we're still talking LaLaLand NAM though it looks good. Deformation band location is dependent on track of strong ULL.

I would definitely use caution with the snow maps yeah it'll be a lucky band that most likely gets most of it and hard to pinpoint this early

[Ntxw]

Curious the southern stream energy this week. Maybe more qpf to latch on than models currently show?

The 12z Euro is already pretty wet across Northern DFW and up through Paris. If that southern vort slows down then we could see better moisture return out in front of both systems but how does that timing change impact the column on the backside of the northern stream vort? or do we get better phasing and an even more dynamic system?

I want to see earlier southerly dig and more neutral/ slight negative across DFW. Now that would be beautiful and more qpf in the trowal. Winds will be strong.

[bubba hotep]

Changes not too big from 18z to 00z but some jumping around at the surface. This is why we are seeing such a large spread of solutions in the ensembles, maybe somewhat increasing confidence in some winter wx but way below avg ability to pin down locations.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I know it’s out there, but I like this with precip around on Christmas Eve

[bubba hotep]

Changes not too big from 18z to 00z but some jumping around at the surface. This is why we are seeing such a large spread of solutions in the ensembles, maybe somewhat increasing confidence in some winter wx but way below avg ability to pin down locations.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121100/namconus_z500_vort_us_51.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121018/namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

One big change from our past system, there is no crushing confluence in the NE to prevent the system from wrapping up. IMO, a lot more confidence that we will see this cutoff vs. the last system where there was basically no room for it.

[JayDT]

The 0z nam what a snow band just barely NE of Dallas.
http://i67.tinypic.com/1675hdt.png

Yeah..... This is a big no from me.. I need that further south

[Ntxw]

0z GFS has snow for DFW. A good caveat is that this looks like it may occur after dark to morning hours. Surface temps coolest during those times and not as much solar decimation.

[Brent]

0z GFS has snow for DFW. A good caveat is that this looks like it may occur after dark to morning hours. Surface temps coolest during those times and not as much solar decimation.

yeah the slower timing is exactly what we needed for a good trend

I think this has a better shot then the previous 2 threats(which to me were never that great anyway)

[Haris]

Saw a big shooting star at 8. THought it was a plane crash but it turns out it was not!

Wow ! !

[Ntxw]

0z GFS has snow for DFW. A good caveat is that this looks like it may occur after dark to morning hours. Surface temps coolest during those times and not as much solar decimation.

yeah the slower timing is exactly what we needed for a good trend

I think this has a better shot then the previous 2 threats(which to me were never that great anyway)

It looks like when we rely on incoming cold blasts one of two things tends to happen. Either it's not cold enough, or too cold for snow, both tends to fail. We should just quit that and look for these deep big low height digging troughs. Make the cold .

[cheezyWXguy]

Saw a big shooting star at 8. THought it was a plane crash but it turns out it was not!

Wow ! !

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bbzFBV5/Screen-Shot-2018-12-10-at-10-08-42-PM.png [/url]

I assume you mean a shooting star?

Edit: nvm you edited it, haha

[Brent]

0z GFS has snow for DFW. A good caveat is that this looks like it may occur after dark to morning hours. Surface temps coolest during those times and not as much solar decimation.

yeah the slower timing is exactly what we needed for a good trend

I think this has a better shot then the previous 2 threats(which to me were never that great anyway)

It looks like when we rely on incoming cold blasts one of two things tends to happen. Either it's not cold enough, or too cold for snow, both tends to fail. We should just quit that and look for these deep big low height digging troughs. Make the cold .

I will say cold cores have always been my favorite snowstorms I think

But they also end in complete heartbreak for others. Its either really really good or really really bad, no middle ground

[Ntxw]

Not all models show snow though, CMC keeps it further north of most of the other guidance. But it is the lone outlier.

[orangeblood]

Yikes, what the heck is our crazy uncle, I'm mean Canadian, up to tonight !!!

[bubba hotep]

0z GFS has snow for DFW. A good caveat is that this looks like it may occur after dark to morning hours. Surface temps coolest during those times and not as much solar decimation.

yeah the slower timing is exactly what we needed for a good trend

I think this has a better shot then the previous 2 threats(which to me were never that great anyway)

Starting to see some consistency?

[cheezyWXguy]

I notice on the 0z GFS that as its snowing in DFW, in Dallas there is a surface temp of 40 with a dewpoint of 25. What potential is there for wet-bulb cooling to result in colder-than-depicted surface temps? Is this a favorable setup for something like that, given high enough precip rates?

[Brent]

The fv gfs has a foot SW of Dallas nothing east of Dallas

Just goes to show how difficult forecast this will be if it remains with the snowy look

[Cpv17]

The fv gfs has a foot SW of Dallas almost nothing east of Dallas

Just goes to show how difficult forecast this will be if it remains with the snowy look

I’m kind of confused with these models right now cuz they’re showing accumulation when none of the models that I’ve looked at have surface temps at or below freezing...so how would it accumulate? Wouldn’t it just melt before it hits the ground?

[Brent]

The fv gfs has a foot SW of Dallas almost nothing east of Dallas

Just goes to show how difficult forecast this will be if it remains with the snowy look

I’m kind of confused with these models right now cuz they’re showing accumulation when none of the models that I’ve looked at have surface temps at or below freezing...so how would it accumulate? Wouldn’t it just melt before it hits the ground?

heavy rates would overcome warm temps it would drive temps down temporarily... I've seen plenty of snowstorms at 35-37 degrees before

Now it may change to rain when the precip lightens up but yeah

that's why track is gonna be so important here because it will only snow in certain areas under it probably