Texas Winter 2018-2019

[cheezyWXguy]

Fv3 would be awesome if it were just a bit cooler!

12z FV3 and GFS both show snow mixing in at hour 90-96 in the DFW area. Agreed, if temps are just a few degrees colder, we could get a good little surprise out of this.

[bubba hotep]

Fv3 would be awesome if it were just a bit cooler!

[Brent]

Fv3 would be awesome if it were just a bit cooler!

https://i.ibb.co/xhvqWQ7/Capture-2018-12-10-11-43-10-2.png

Well thats interesting

[Quixotic]

Everything but the surface temps looks ideal.

[Brent]

Everything but the surface temps looks ideal.

of course if the precip is heavy enough the surface temps could be overcome. I've seen it before.

Look at Lubbock the other day. Cold cores are always strange

That being said it'll melt quickly but I mean, we never had a shot at anything real Saturday

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro right in line with FV3, this could be a very quick burst heavy snow event for someone across North Central Texas!!!

[stormlover2013]

could be a trend!!!! models struggle on winter weather

[Cpv17]

12z Euro has a 1045mb high in Colorado. Southeast Texas gets pretty chilly later this week.

[Brent]

looks like the Euro bullseyes just SW of the metro again, though its a bit closer this time, 3 inches in Johnson County, a little towards Fort Worth

[orangeblood]

12z Euro has a 1045mb high in Colorado. Southeast Texas gets pretty chilly later this week.

Appears to be just a plateau high with air originating from the Pacific, nothing too abnormal

[orangeblood]

looks like the Euro bullseyes just SW of the metro again, though its a bit closer this time, 3 inches in Johnson County, a little towards Fort Worth

wouldn't get too caught up in bullseyes quite yet in the 72-84 hr range, its the upper level dynamics coming together is the 1st step

[Brent]

looks like the Euro bullseyes just SW of the metro again, though its a bit closer this time, 3 inches in Johnson County, a little towards Fort Worth

wouldn't get too caught up in bullseyes quite yet in the 72-84 hr range, its the upper level dynamics coming together is the 1st step

right just the fact its showing snow nearby is big news

[Cpv17]

12z Euro has a 1045mb high in Colorado. Southeast Texas gets pretty chilly later this week.

Appears to be just a plateau high with air originating from the Pacific, nothing too abnormal

True. Still looks cold though.

[Cpv17]

Next week is beginning to look more and more interesting as well.

[Ntxw]

The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.

[orangeblood]

The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.

Yep I think you're right..... with almost zero sub-freezing surface air to tap into, this is going to take negative high 4's to low 5's standard deviations at the 500Mb level to produce snow down to surface

[Ntxw]

The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.

Yep I think you're right..... with almost zero sub-freezing surface air to tap into, this is going to take negative high 4's to low 5's standard deviations at the 500Mb level to produce snow down to surface

This is the kind of stuff we have been raving for though with the right Nino and low solar. These are potent ULL and eventually with climo, they will all try to snow as it gets closer deeper into the season.

[wxman57]

12Z ECMWF has up to 6 inches SW of the DFW area Thursday night. GFS at same time has temps in the mid 40s but precip in sub-freezing air aloft. Canadian looks similar to the GFS. Those passing upper lows can be trouble.

[orangeblood]

The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.

Yep I think you're right..... with almost zero sub-freezing surface air to tap into, this is going to take negative high 4's to low 5's standard deviations at the 500Mb level to produce snow down to surface

This is the kind of stuff we have been raving for though with the right Nino and low solar. These are potent ULL and eventually with climo, they will all try to snow as it gets closer deeper into the season.

Yes, the trend of the US storm tracks over the past few months is very promising going forward into the heart of the winter!!!

[Cpv17]

The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.

Yep I think you're right..... with almost zero sub-freezing surface air to tap into, this is going to take negative high 4's to low 5's standard deviations at the 500Mb level to produce snow down to surface

This is the kind of stuff we have been raving for though with the right Nino and low solar. These are potent ULL and eventually with climo, they will all try to snow as it gets closer deeper into the season.

This system coming through later this week really doesn’t even have any cold air to work with. It’s basically just sucking in all the cold air around it, into it, which isn’t much. Even saying all that, there still looks to be a chance of snow up there for you guys. Wait till we get some true cold air to work with and much more of the state could be in for something.