Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Not to be rude, I love you guys, but why is anyone excited about this trend all of the modkes have called off any winter storm what so ever lol

same reason some of us were very bitter about people down south getting snow last year... because it wasnt us.

[DFWLady]

18Z RGEM not quite as tight with the upper low as the NAM so 850s are just a tad too warm this run, but much more moisture for the low to play with. For DFW this has potential for multiple inches but also could be no snow at all (same for points east of DFW and north of I-20.

One of these runs is going to plop down 6" of snow over DFW and we will lose our minds. Then it will shift to Denison on the next run.

You are right! Talk about winter cancel when that happens lol! The DFW people would just give up lol! Until the next run to see if comes back!

[Jarodm12]

I understand well the only model that is giving me hope is the wrf

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 062141
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
341 PM CST Thu Dec 6 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Regional radars early this afternoon show isolated to scattered
showers drifting east from the Hill Country into Central Texas.
Overall rain accumulations from this activity so far have been
generally light and less than one tenth of an inch, but some of this
activity north of Interstate 10 has been able to take advantage of
some mid-level instability over Central Texas and has produced
isolated lightning strikes and locally higher totals approaching one
half inch. Afternoon SPC mesoanalysis shows a cold front stretching
from near Fort Stockton to Abilene to Wichita Falls with deeper
moisture (precipitable water values around 1.4-1.5 inches) nosing
into the Middle Texas coast. Strong isentropic ascent on the 295K
surface and this deeper moisture will result in periods of light rain
or drizzle persisting through the evening hours across the region.
Rainfall accumulations through the evening are expected to remain
light and generally under one quarter of an inch.

The cold front is expected to push through the Hill Country this
evening, reaching the northern counties of the forecast area by
midnight. As the front reaches the Interstate 35 corridor around
sunrise, embedded disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will
result in increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage along the
frontal boundary. Light to moderate rain during this time could
result in a challenging Friday morning commute for the Austin and San
Antonio metros and motorists should allow for extra time to make it
into work or school in the morning. Through sunrise, expect an
additional half inch of rain with more robust cells along the cold
front/Interstate 35 corridor capable of producing isolated 1-1.5
inch amounts.

The cold front will continue to sag south of Interstate 35 through
the morning hours, but low and mid level flow becoming oriented
increasingly parallel to the frontal boundary will result in the
front slowing or possibly stalling as it reaches the Coastal
Plains/southeastern counties of the forecast area. This will allow
for the first round of heavy rainfall during the afternoon hours into
the evening hours as nearly uniform flow above the surface results
in training of showers and thunderstorms south and east of the
I-35/I-37 corridor (or really, for areas along and just behind the
cold front). Cannot rule out a strong or severe thunderstorm
developing along the front Friday afternoon or evening, but with the
continued southward placement of the front expect thunderstorm
activity to be elevated with the overall severe risk low. Forecast
rain amounts in this area are in the 1 to 2 inch range during the day
Friday with lighter amounts expected farther west. Upper flow will
continue to amplify across the region will continue to amplify across
the region Friday afternoon and evening as a closed low now off the
California coast becomes an open wave over Arizona. Embedded
disturbances within this upper flow may actually allow a break in the
rainfall (or at least periods of lighter rain) during the late
morning/midday hours on Friday. This would depend on how much
subsidence is able to be realized behind stronger shortwaves lifting
out of Mexico during the day, but is worth noting as there is some
signal of this happening within the TTU-WRF, ARW, and NMM.

By Friday afternoon, the cold front is expected to have sagged as
far south as the Texas Coastal Bend but , but will likely be cancelled early based on
the speed of the overall storm system.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Dry slotting associated with the passage of the shortwave trough
will result in rain shifting north and east of the region midday
Saturday with 10-20 MPH breezy north to northwest winds settling in
across the region in the wake of the front during the day. Surface
ridging building into the region Saturday night and Sunday will allow
for winds to begin to relax with deep northerly flow through the
atmospheric column keeping the region dry and cooler through the
middle of the week with highs in the 50s.

With the surface ridging settling near the region on Monday,
excellent conditions for radiational cooling may allow for a light
freeze across portions of the Hill Country both Monday and Tuesday
mornings. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend begins Monday through
the middle of the upcoming week with highs climbing back into the 60s
by Wednesday. Rain chances don`t look to return to the forecast
until the next disturbance approaches the region late next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
December is not a common flash flooding month for South Central
Texas, with the last flash flood warning issued in the region during
the month of December occurring in 2002. However, the region is
coming out of a very wet fall with September 2018 being the wettest
September on record for the City of San Antonio. There have also been
several freezes around the region causing vegetation to go dormant,
which means that it is not able to absorb water. Both of these will
make it easier for any rain that falls to convert into runoff and
produce at least elevated flows along area creeks, streams, andincreasing forcing with the
approach of the shortwave trough from Arizona will result in a
secondary round of heavy rain developing along the Rio Grande and
sweeping west to east across South Central Texas Friday evening and
night. Heavy rain is still expected during this time though as
evaluation of several environmental characteristics for heavy rain do
indicate that strong warm advection will be present in the 850-700
MB layer (resulting in steepening lapse rates and enhanced
precipitation efficiency), there will be strong diffluence aloft with
the approach of the upper trough (providing extra lift), and high
precipitable water values in place (more than 130 percent of normal).
However, mean winds within the cloud bearing layer during this time
(850-300 MB) are in the 35-50 knot range which indicates that this
overall complex will be moving at a fast clip and this will help
limit higher rain totals. Expect the system to clear most of the
region between 3-6 AM on Saturday morning, with overall rain amounts
for this event (tonight through Saturday morning) in the 3-5 inch
range west of I-35/I-37. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of South Central Texas beginning midday Friday and
continuing into Saturday
rivers.

Forecasted rainfall across the Guadalupe, San Antonio, Colorado, and
Brazos River basins has resulted in forecasted rises info minor and
moderate for several locations within these basins. Two locations
within the Guadalupe Basin, the San Marcos River at Luling and the
Sandies Creek near Westhoff, are forecast to rise into major flood
stage. Fluctuations in where the heaviest rain will fall will
ultimately affect how high (and how quickly) these points rise and
residents who live near a river or waterway should make sure to stay
aware of changing conditions over the next 24 to 36 hours.

[Brent]

FWD AFD

On Saturday, the main mid/upper low is expected to cross North
Texas through the afternoon/evening hours. A dry slot aloft will
reduce rainfall rates/chances through the day primarily across
Central Texas, while some wrap-around precipitation is expected to
continue north of I-20. Initially, a loss of cloud ice associated
with the dry slot may cause precipitation to become fairly
shallow through the morning/mid-day hours across much of the
region. Temperatures towards the Red River will likely be warm
enough such that freezing drizzle/rain is not expected with this
precipitation. Thereafter, the track of the mid-level low will
dictate much of what happens with regards to precipitation type.
The current thinking is that a closed low will slide eastward
across the Red River Valley through the afternoon hours. As it
does so, some weak deformation banding/ascent should saturate mid
levels enough to re-introduce ice crystals into the column aloft
across North Texas. Although surface temperatures at this time
(even towards the Red River) are expected to be slightly too warm
for any significant impact, an isothermal layer (near 0 C)
beneath the crystal generation zone may support efficient
aggregation to mix snow with rainfall for areas north of an
approximate Breckenridge to Denton to Paris line. Furthermore,
diabatic/melting effects with any heavier rates could be
sufficient to briefly mix rain with snow (or even switch it
entirely snow) during the afternoon and evening hours. Given
continued discrepancies with the amplitude/track of the low, as
well as the related thermal profiles, will just maintain a
rain/snow mix on Saturday. However, a deeper/more amplified system
could introduce the potential for some light accumulations
towards the Red River, with some possibility for rain mixing with
snow as far south as the Metroplex. Will continue to monitor this
possibility.

[wxman57]

Can't say what model was "correct" yet. Wait until Sunday.

[Cerlin]

Amidst all of the winter weather talk, there’s been a nice steady drizzle for about the past hour throughout Carrollton and Frisco. Been nice to see some rain after an absence recently.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

One heck of a bust if this trend keeps moving in the wrong direction. It's going to be bad for the ticker if this is how the upcoming winter is going to be!.

How is it a bust if it doesn’t snow? Nws has been steadfast in Oklahoma and nws fw about low chances, if any snow in WF and DFW. Nws fw has a graphic up right concerning social media and model hugging. Some good info, we’re fortunate here to have wx man 57 to keep us grounded:)

[Ntxw]

One heck of a bust if this trend keeps moving in the wrong direction. It's going to be bad for the ticker if this is how the upcoming winter is going to be!.

How is it a bust if it doesn’t snow? Nws has been steadfast in Oklahoma and nws fw about low chances, if any snow in WF and DFW. Nws fw has a graphic up right concerning social media and model hugging. Some good info, we’re fortunate here to have wx man 57 to keep us grounded:)

Indeed. Plus even if it doesn't snow I wouldn't call it a bust, emotional aside. Remember El Nino December climo is much worse. Could be 80F and raining. This system and many before and after just tells us there is blocking, and it is working. We will likely revisit this again in late December.

[Ralph's Weather]

No model has been proven right or wrong at this point so we will continue to hug the NAM as it gives us hope for snow. It is also a logical solution unlike some runs of other models. It was never going to snow in Kansas from this set up nor was it going to be in the mid 50s here this weekend. There is no interest in talking about 50 degrees and light rain so let's hope the NAM continues giving us hope. If it starts moving the other way this place will become dead until the next storm. At least there will always be a next storm this winter and later in the season the initial round of precip has a chance to be frozen as well as the back end.

Glancing at the 18Z globals. They are not far off from what the NAM shows for Saturday afternoon. We are looking at a sub freezing column with moisture and just a shallow surface warm layer.

[Jarodm12]

No model has been proven right or wrong at this point so we will continue to hug the NAM as it gives us hope for snow. It is also a logical solution unlike some runs of other models. It was never going to snow in Kansas from this set up nor was it going to be in the mid 50s here this weekend. There is no interest in talking about 50 degrees and light rain so let's hope the NAM continues giving us hope. If it starts moving the other way this place will become dead until the next storm. At least there will always be a next storm this winter and later in the season the initial round of precip has a chance to be frozen as well as the back end.

But with the models trending warmer it very well could be in the 40s and 50s into Oklahoma???
Norman forecast discussion
Total snow and ice accumulations are still highly uncertain as a
change of a few degrees in temperature will likely mean the
difference between a wet snow, freezing rain, or mostly rain. We
have gone on the colder side of guidance overall, but the latest
models continue to paint a somewhat warmer picture. For now, we
will continue to monitor trends and update the forecast as needed.
No changes were made to the current winter storm watch as we
await higher forecast confidence in temperatures and precipitation
intensity and type.

[Brent]

One heck of a bust if this trend keeps moving in the wrong direction. It's going to be bad for the ticker if this is how the upcoming winter is going to be!.

How is it a bust if it doesn’t snow? Nws has been steadfast in Oklahoma and nws fw about low chances, if any snow in WF and DFW. Nws fw has a graphic up right concerning social media and model hugging. Some good info, we’re fortunate here to have wx man 57 to keep us grounded:)

Indeed. Plus even if it doesn't snow I wouldn't call it a bust, emotional aside. Remember El Nino December climo is much worse. Could be 80F and raining. This system and many before and after just tells us there is blocking, and it is working. We will likely revisit this again in late December.

just imagine what this storm would have been with colder air which is more likely in a few weeks given its only early December

[Ralph's Weather]

No model has been proven right or wrong at this point so we will continue to hug the NAM as it gives us hope for snow. It is also a logical solution unlike some runs of other models. It was never going to snow in Kansas from this set up nor was it going to be in the mid 50s here this weekend. There is no interest in talking about 50 degrees and light rain so let's hope the NAM continues giving us hope. If it starts moving the other way this place will become dead until the next storm. At least there will always be a next storm this winter and later in the season the initial round of precip has a chance to be frozen as well as the back end.

But with the models trending warmer it very well could be in the 40s and 50s into Oklahoma???
Norman forecast discussion
Total snow and ice accumulations are still highly uncertain as a
change of a few degrees in temperature will likely mean the
difference between a wet snow, freezing rain, or mostly rain. We
have gone on the colder side of guidance overall, but the latest
models continue to paint a somewhat warmer picture. For now, we
will continue to monitor trends and update the forecast as needed.
No changes were made to the current winter storm watch as we
await higher forecast confidence in temperatures and precipitation
intensity and type.

There is no warming trend for northern TX. Trends are steady at the moment as far as temps go. GFS easing temps down actually around here. And no there is no chance that Saturday is anywhere near 50 in OK. The nearest 50 is on the coast.

[Ralph's Weather]

And after this storm it is right back at it with a mess of dynamic shortwaves to be sorted out for next week.

[Ntxw]

For the 4th month in a row now DFW through the first week has accumulated -1.6F below normal to date. The next week will sink that lower. What an astounding rebound the last quarter of this year has been! After recording so many above normal months prior this has been incredible.

GFS has warmest high 63F. That is hardly much of a warm up at all. We may finish December with another below month!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

All week, the upper levels have been cold enough for areas like the Panhandle and OK but just barely. Its not a very "cold" storm, but its cold enough. Just. So any warming or weakness in the storm will be very noticeable.

I like looking at the soundings and going from there to tell you whats really going on in the column. I think DFW can get some flakes on the back side of the low if 850 temps can be a few degrees below zero, and surface temps not too far from freezing.

Ntx and other mets, youve been doing an awesome job posting updates on the track and different situations and maps. Really appreciate your input!

[Cpv17]

This isn’t something you see a whole lot at least imo. Look at how far south this trough/bowling ball is!

[Cerlin]

For the 4th month in a row now DFW through the first week has accumulated -1.6F below normal to date. The next week will sink that lower. What an astounding rebound the last quarter of this year has been! After recording so many above normal months prior this has been incredible.

GFS has warmest high 63F. That is hardly much of a warm up at all. We may finish December with another below month!

Hey NTXW, I’m still not good at finding statistical data, where do you get your monthly temperature records for DFW? I’m curious on when the last time we had 4 months below normal and i’d like to look it up but I can never seem to find the data.

[Ntxw]

Hey NTXW, I’m still not good at finding statistical data, where do you get your monthly temperature records for DFW? I’m curious on when the last time we had 4 months below normal and i’d like to look it up but I can never seem to find the data.

Here you go! You will have to dig for the kind of information you're looking by browsing through. I like to use Excel as an easier way to organize it. But winter 2013-2014 was the last 4+ month below normal departure.

Daily and Monthly composites are on the NWS Climate pages for recent months.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fwd

If you want to go back even further to early 2000s the F6 data is good

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/f6

And lastly- An array of data including but not limited to normals, extremes, averages, and more

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfwclimo



Now if you want additional data going back to the 1900s you will need NCDC (NCEI) controlled archive data. Takes a bit of work to request those. Enjoy!

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access

[Cerlin]

Hey NTXW, I’m still not good at finding statistical data, where do you get your monthly temperature records for DFW? I’m curious on when the last time we had 4 months below normal and i’d like to look it up but I can never seem to find the data.

Here you go! You will have to dig for the kind of information you're looking by browsing through. I like to use Excel as an easier way to organize it. But winter 2013-2014 was the last 4+ month below normal departure.

Daily and Monthly composites are on the NWS Climate pages for recent months.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fwd

If you want to go back even further to early 2000s the F6 data is good

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/f6

And lastly- An array of data including but not limited to normals, extremes, averages, and more

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfwclimo



Now if you want additional data going back to the 1900s you will need NCDC (NCEI) controlled archive data. Takes a bit of work to request those. Enjoy!

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access

Thank you so much!