Texas Winter 2018-2019

[EnnisTx]

Blah, blah, blah..... that's how I feel about this. Been trying to keep up with everyone on the bords, at leat a little entertainment. It's been hard been laying on my arse sinse Sunday in the hospital with a kidney infection that turned to sepsis, " Since im the typical man" my Wife says!

Yes I shoul have taken the hint of a 105` temperature, but agin i had things to do in my recliner!!

Someone figure out how to send some dnow to Arlington, at least I have a window......

[weatherdude1108]

A cold front and potent upper level disturbance will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the area Thursday night through early Saturday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, potentially leading to flooding. Between 3 and 5 inches of rainfall are forecast over the eastern Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor, and between 4 and 6 inches with locally higher amounts east of I-35 and I-37. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for these areas. Flooding of creeks, smaller tributaries, low water crossings, and urban areas will be possible.


A cold front and potent upper level disturbance will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the area Thursday night through early Saturday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, potentially leading to flooding. Between 3 and 5 inches of rainfall are forecast over the eastern Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor, and between 4 and 6 inches with locally higher amounts east of I-35 and I-37. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for these areas. Lesser amounts between 1 and 3 inches are forecast over the western Hill Country and Rio Grande.

[gboudx]

Blah, blah, blah..... that's how I feel about this. Been trying to keep up with everyone on the bords, at leat a little entertainment. It's been hard been laying on my arse sinse Sunday in the hospital with a kidney infection that turned to sepsis, " Since im the typical man" my Wife says!

Yes I shoul have taken the hint of a 105` temperature, but agin i had things to do in my recliner!!

Someone figure out how to send some dnow to Arlington, ar least I have a window......

105 fever? Pfft, rub some dirt on it and get back to work hippie. Hope you get better soon.

[Jarodm12]

Well well well... The NAM is coming in further south and stronger!

[WacoWx]

Is it possible for the Low to come in further south at this point or do we have enough data to sample to where we are pretty certain of it track?

[Ntxw]

Is it possible for the Low to come in further south at this point or do we have enough data to sample to where we are pretty certain of it track?

It is still possible to come south and/or colder. It won't be cold enough initially, but we don't know yet how the ULL will cool the column. It is possible there is wrap around when the column is below 0c. Better precip chances if further south when it happens. The low has not yet made the northerly turn out of MX. The longer it takes for that to happen the better. Also there is more northern energy coming from the Pacific northern branch that has shown up the past 24 hours of runs.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Okc nws office has snow predicted all the way down to the red river. That’s changed since yesterday. 1-2 inch line sits around Ardmore to Durant right now, pretty darn close. Unfortunately I’ll be back in Frisco before the fireworks start in okc this weekend. Hopefully the low will dig further south and slower so north Texas can get in on the white stuff.

[SoupBone]

Okc nws office has snow predicted all the way down to the red river. That’s changed since yesterday. 1-2 inch line sits around Ardmore to Durant right now, pretty darn close. Unfortunately I’ll be back in Frisco before the fireworks start in okc this weekend. Hopefully the low will dig further south and slower so north Texas can get in on the white stuff.

Not far south enough for me I'm afraid.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z NAM shifted the upper low about 50 mi south over N TX. It also shows an extra shot of energy during the day Sunday though no moisture left with that on this run. 0Z runs tonight will be very interesting to watch as the system will have been sampled more thoroughly by then.

[Ntxw]

Water Vapor loop this morning

[starsfan65]

Water Vapor loop this morning

https://images2.imgbox.com/1a/11/BQys09Dy_o.gif

where is the storm now?

[Ntxw]

Water Vapor loop this morning

https://images2.imgbox.com/1a/11/BQys09Dy_o.gif

where is the storm now?

Storm center is offshore just west of LA but a new center and area of vorticity will form in the southern baja in the next 24 hours and kick out.

[Jarodm12]

Is it possible for the Low to come in further south at this point or do we have enough data to sample to where we are pretty certain of it track?

It is still possible to come south and/or colder. It won't be cold enough initially, but we don't know yet how the ULL will cool the column. It is possible there is wrap around when the column is below 0c. Better precip chances if further south when it happens. The low has not yet made the northerly turn out of MX. The longer it takes for that to happen the better. Also there is more northern energy coming from the Pacific northern branch that has shown up the past 24 hours of runs.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a6/35/qlQTA6aV_o.gif

The only down side , is that each successive run of the NAM is a touch warmer here or a touch warmer there, so if it shifts to for south doesn't that come with a price as well?

[Ntxw]

The only down side , is that each successive run of the NAM is a touch warmer here or a touch warmer there, so if it shifts to for south doesn't that come with a price as well?

That's why I mentioned it was not going to be cold enough initially. A further south track could allow more moisture to come through when the column is cooled by the ULL.

[Ntxw]

Not to forget there is a front sitting somewhere between Vernon and WF. Naturally it oozes south much easier in the sloped elevation in NW Texas but there if you are following.

[Jarodm12]

It's kinda aweasome to be at the point where we are watching temperature trends, with the NAM still forecasting snow within 60 hrs for our areas, I'm excited! However if you look at the hrrr it's significantly warmer than all the other models, NTXW does the hrrr have a warm bias?

[wxman57]

Quite a drop in snow predictions from the 12Z NAM. Here's a loop I made comparing the 06Z and 12Z NAM runs. From 18" near OKC to 3-4". Trend has been for less snow since yesterday.

[bubba hotep]

Quite a drop in snow predictions from the 12Z NAM. Here's a loop I made comparing the 06Z and 12Z NAM runs. From 18" near OKC to 3-4". Trend has been for less snow since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAMDec6.gif

Matches up with SREF trends. Last 3 runs for OKC:

21z - 8"
03z - 7.5"
09z - 3.5"

[Ralph's Weather]

A wild card is if the storm holds back enough for the northern stream to catch up to it. It seems like models are trendig that way. If it does that could make for some crazy last minute forecast changes.

[Cpv17]

Quite a drop in snow predictions from the 12Z NAM. Here's a loop I made comparing the 06Z and 12Z NAM runs. From 18" near OKC to 3-4". Trend has been for less snow since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAMDec6.gif

You literally only post negative stuff lol don’t have nothing nice to say, don’t say it at all