Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Captmorg70]

Well this storm sucks looks like even southern Oklahoma will eventually be too warm if the trend on the models continue . Maybe next year

It’s Dec 5th.. plenty of time this season. Also Durant looks to be in a pretty decent spot for a little something. DFW proper may not, but your pretty far north.

Also as Ralph said, with you setup like this there can and will be some surprises. I doubt that the Nam at 84 hrs out can depict exactly where the closed low(if there is one) will pass.

[OKMet83]

I'm by no means implying anything for DFW other than stating a fact in the 2009 Christmas Eve Blizzard many of the global runs were out to lunch when the North American NAM model was nailing it... I believe it's a done deal the DFW Metroplex proper sees just a heavy rain but I think travel impacts possible NW of Metroplex Ft Worth NWS is highlighting this now as well... Major Snow/Ice event in Ok late in the day Friday through much of Saturday... If I had travel plans into Oklahoma this weekend I would think again...

Mark my words the nam will be the closest solution

I expect a swath of 6-10 inches of Snow (Where that band sets up will be a now-casting event but somewhere near Central OK - OKC AREA)
Ice Storm 50-75 Mi on the SE side of Interstate 44 with some areas picking up 0.50" to in excess of 0.75" +

Likely the biggest event in Oklahoma in at least 6 years maybe even longer.

[Brent]

flizzard Sunday morning in DFW on the NAM

If we don't float away by then

A flizzard?

flurries with wind

25 inches in Arkansas... wheres our Arkansas poster at

[Ntxw]

The energy is more consolidated on this run with the upper low.

850s on the NAM get around 0C in NTX around 21z SAT. It shows light rain but not far above our heads, on the run, would be snow. Skewt soundings shows below freezing along the entire column saturated except near the surface up to a few hundred feet.

Thats what I am seeing also. This run is very close to showing some decent N TX snow Sat afternoon but for a slight surface warm layer. If the surface high was justva touch stronger we would see it showing snow across N TX.

Pray and hope for dynamics. More interaction with the northern stream will help with cold.

[starsfan65]

850s on the NAM get around 0C in NTX around 21z SAT. It shows light rain but not far above our heads, on the run, would be snow. Skewt soundings shows below freezing along the entire column saturated except near the surface up to a few hundred feet.

Thats what I am seeing also. This run is very close to showing some decent N TX snow Sat afternoon but for a slight surface warm layer. If the surface high was justva touch stronger we would see it showing snow across N TX.

Pray and hope for dynamics. More interaction with the northern stream will help with cold.

It might happen and the storm it still offshore.

[bubba hotep]

Moisture return is underway across Texas and you can clearly see the Pacific connection lurking.

[Brent]

Well this storm sucks looks like even southern Oklahoma will eventually be too warm if the trend on the models continue . Maybe next year

eh, at least you're outside the DFW heat island Think you got a better shot than us for sure

[starsfan65]

Moisture return is underway across Texas and you can clearly see the Pacific connection lurking.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/epac/mimictpw_epac_latest.gif

This storm is still offshore.

[bubba hotep]

To hold us over until a real snow here in N. Texas, a pic from Iceland.

[TheProfessor]

Iceland living up to it's name!

[Haris]

Im hoping we get 3" or more out of this here in Austin. If it happens, it is a win.

[Cpv17]

Well I see the GFS and CMC are in pretty good agreement right now on where the heaviest qpf will be.

[SnowintheFalls]

Having multiple shots at wintry weather without payoff this early is a blessing and a curse. It just makes me that much more impatient for winter to begin!

[CaptinCrunch]

If the storm system digs so much as an extra 100 miles further south than current models show, well it's a game changer.

[Brent]

Euro still keeping the snow mostly in Oklahoma. Not much in Wichita Falls even the snow map looks nothing like the nam

[Brent]

NAM is sure trying... some brief light snow in DFW by 10pm Saturday Night this run, gone by Sunday morning, maybe a dusting in spots

Oklahoma City nearing 30 inches of snow looks like 2-4 inches around Wichita Falls, also has a couple inches in the Red River counties north of DFW

[gpsnowman]

I just hope we can get two or three similar setups exactly like this later in the season with temps about 15 degrees colder!!! We would be rockin.

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM sticks to its guns with the upper low deeping in quickly as it tracks along the Red River Saturday. GFS is an open wave that is more progressive. Euro is closer to the NAM at 500mb with a closed low though not as strong as the NAM. If the NAM pans out there would be some epic snow totals to the NW of the upper low's track. Just wish it was south of the river haha.

[EnnisTx]

[EnnisTx]

Blah, blah, blah..... that's how I feel about this. Been trying to keep up with everyone on the bords, at leat a little entertainment. It's been hard been laying on my arse sinse Sunday in the hospital with a kidney infection that turned to sepsis, " Since im the typical man" my Wife says!

Yes I shoul have taken the hint of a 105` temperature, but agin i had things to do in my recliner!!

Someone figure out how to send some dnow to Arlington, ar least I have a window......