Texas Winter 2018-2019

[gboudx]

If you think about it, cold rain is just snow in a liquid form.

This is true. It’s even possible to have a rainman.

[bubba hotep]

Collin County Special!

[bubba hotep]

21z SREF lends some support to that with the 0.5" snow line running along 380.

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z NAM is rolling in now. About to get to the interesting time frame.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM, so far, is coming in warmer than earlier runs today

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z NAM has the surface high further NE compared to recent runs. The SW trough is a bit further south and the vorticity is focused more I the base of the trough compared to previous runs. Friday is warmer and Sat may be too on this run but temps aloft may be colder on Sat.

[Brent]

0z NAM, so far, is coming in warmer than earlier runs today

shocking

[dhweather]

NAM is warmer and very wet. Flooding potential is going to be high this weekend.

[bubba hotep]

0z NAM, so far, is coming in warmer than earlier runs today

Already over 4" of rain at DFW.

[dhweather]

0Z NAM even the wrap around is liquid.

[Ntxw]

ULL does go neutral negative pretty early on the 0z though so maybe it will be able to pull back more moisture in later frames

[Ralph's Weather]

The energy is more consolidated on this run with the upper low.

[Brent]

still looks like some hope for ending as flurries in DFW but yeah most of the accumulation is in Oklahoma

the rain is definitely gonna be the bigger story, hope yall enjoyed the dry weather

[bubba hotep]

Pushing 5" at DFW, record breaking rainfall potential.

[Jarodm12]

Well this storm sucks looks like even southern Oklahoma will eventually be too warm if the trend on the models continue . Maybe next year

[Ntxw]

The energy is more consolidated on this run with the upper low.

850s on the NAM get around 0C in NTX around 21z SAT. It shows light rain but not far above our heads, on the run, would be snow. Skewt soundings shows below freezing along the entire column saturated except near the surface up to a few hundred feet.

Edit: looking at wrong hour, that's hour 72 0z Sun/SAT evening.

[Ralph's Weather]

If it does come through as a true closed low as this run shows there will be surprises, but there will also be a sharper cutoff in who gets what.

[Brent]

flizzard Sunday morning in DFW on the NAM

If we don't float away by then

[Ralph's Weather]

The energy is more consolidated on this run with the upper low.

850s on the NAM get around 0C in NTX around 21z SAT. It shows light rain but not far above our heads, on the run, would be snow. Skewt soundings shows below freezing along the entire column saturated except near the surface up to a few hundred feet.

Thats what I am seeing also. This run is very close to showing some decent N TX snow Sat afternoon but for a slight surface warm layer. If the surface high was justva touch stronger we would see it showing snow across N TX.

[starsfan65]

flizzard Sunday morning in DFW on the NAM

If we don't float away by then

A flizzard?