Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Well I'm just going to have to hope that all of the global models are too warm.

I wish the nam would be right but it buried DFW in November on some runs and we got not even a flake lol

We can hope this is different though

[Cpv17]

Next weeks system doesn’t really look like a sure thing yet.

[Brent]

18z NAM already backing off, Wichita Falls down to Abilene the best snow... most of the snow in Oklahoma otherwise, DFW in a dry slot

16 inches near OKC

[Yukon Cornelius]

[Brent]

20 inches near Oklahoma City road trip anyone?

Some token flakes in DFW maybe as the precip ends

[Ntxw]

18z NAM already backing off, Wichita Falls down to Abilene the best snow... most of the snow in Oklahoma otherwise, DFW in a dry slot

16 inches near OKC

it's not terribly different. The 18z took a slight jog north of ejection.

CMC and NAM are still the coldest at 850s. GFS is the warmest, Euro is a little in between.

[wxman57]

Here's a short animated GIF I made comparing the 12Z and 18Z NAM snow totals.

[gboudx]

The 18z has some blue right over Brent.

[Cpv17]

The SPC has now issued a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. That area could grow in coverage within the next 48 hours as well.

[Brent]

The 18z has some blue right over Brent.

Lol except i didnt really see where it happens the token flakes are after

I'm seriously thinking of heading up to Oklahoma if it doesnt do much here

[starsfan65]

The 18z has some blue right over Brent.

Lol except i didnt really see where it happens the token flakes are after

I'm seriously thinking of heading up to Oklahoma if it doesnt do much here

token flakes?

[Brent]

The 18z has some blue right over Brent.

Lol except i didnt really see where it happens the token flakes are after

I'm seriously thinking of heading up to Oklahoma if it doesnt do much here

token flakes?

Yeah like a few as the precip ends

FWD AFD

But wait there`s more! Things will get a little bit interesting as
we head into Saturday. The first round of precipitation should
start to end late Friday Night or early Saturday morning as
frontogenetical forcing moves off to the southeast, and a dry slot
moves into parts of Central Texas. However, very strong ascent in
the form of an upper-level trough will begin to move into the
region. Very large values of Q-vector divergence indicate strong
ascent from multiple sources: the left exit region of a 100+ kt
jet streak over Coahuila and Chihuahua, strong cyclonic vorticity
advection and height falls at 500 mb, and the axis of deformation
north of the developing surface cyclone. This should result in
another round of precipitation, mainly along and north of
Interstate 20 during the day Saturday. Meanwhile, cold air
advection will continue behind the cold front. Most of the model
guidance keeps temperatures just above freezing in our
northwestern counties, except most notably, the NAM. Global
guidance tends to underdo cold air advection in the case of
shallow Arctic airmasses such as this, so trended a little cool
compared to global models, but went warmer than the NAM. These
surface temperatures may be cold enough that when combined with
saturated profiles up to the -10 C isothermal level (i.e. the
dendritic growth zone) and dynamic cooling attendant with the
approaching mid-tropospheric trough that a wintry mix may be
possible northwest of a Breckenridge to Gainesville line. This
would likely begin initially as some light freezing rain, and
transition to snow quickly as the aforementioned dynamic cooling
takes place. It should be stressed however that at present time,
ground temperatures will almost certainly be too warm for any
appreciable accumulations, but interests in areas north and west
of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area should continue to
monitor.

[starsfan65]

Lol except i didnt really see where it happens the token flakes are after

I'm seriously thinking of heading up to Oklahoma if it doesnt do much here

token flakes?

Yeah like a few as the precip ends

FWD AFD

But wait there`s more! Things will get a little bit interesting as
we head into Saturday. The first round of precipitation should
start to end late Friday Night or early Saturday morning as
frontogenetical forcing moves off to the southeast, and a dry slot
moves into parts of Central Texas. However, very strong ascent in
the form of an upper-level trough will begin to move into the
region. Very large values of Q-vector divergence indicate strong
ascent from multiple sources: the left exit region of a 100+ kt
jet streak over Coahuila and Chihuahua, strong cyclonic vorticity
advection and height falls at 500 mb, and the axis of deformation
north of the developing surface cyclone. This should result in
another round of precipitation, mainly along and north of
Interstate 20 during the day Saturday. Meanwhile, cold air
advection will continue behind the cold front. Most of the model
guidance keeps temperatures just above freezing in our
northwestern counties, except most notably, the NAM. Global
guidance tends to underdo cold air advection in the case of
shallow Arctic airmasses such as this, so trended a little cool
compared to global models, but went warmer than the NAM. These
surface temperatures may be cold enough that when combined with
saturated profiles up to the -10 C isothermal level (i.e. the
dendritic growth zone) and dynamic cooling attendant with the
approaching mid-tropospheric trough that a wintry mix may be
possible northwest of a Breckenridge to Gainesville line. This
would likely begin initially as some light freezing rain, and
transition to snow quickly as the aforementioned dynamic cooling
takes place. It should be stressed however that at present time,
ground temperatures will almost certainly be too warm for any
appreciable accumulations, but interests in areas north and west
of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area should continue to
monitor.

This storm is still offshore on the west coast.

[Brent]

So close

[Jarodm12]

My Oklahoma forecast discussion noted that the NAM may very well not be cold enough

[Lagreeneyes03]

What comes after this system though? (I'll be out of town, so won't be able to enjoy any of it)

[Brent]

What comes after this system though? (I'll be out of town, so won't be able to enjoy any of it)

Not much after Saturday Night. Gradual warmup through mid week was hints of another storm next Friday but not for sure yet what that will be

[SouthernMet]

GFS is way too warm.

[CaptinCrunch]

If you think about it, cold rain is just snow in a liquid form.

[gto67]

Are Meade Weather Stations any good? Thanks