Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ntxw]

CMC looks about the same as it did 0z. Colder than the GFS but not as cold as the NAM. A little bit different at 5h. Orangeblood noted earlier the neutral/negative nature of the NAM earlier than the globals, this is something I would look for going forward.

The precip shield between all 3 is pretty similar, just depth of cold is different in the trowal.

[Ralph's Weather]

We are still in the range where we are watching trends and not necessarily exact numbers. And the trend is our friend.

[Ralph's Weather]

The state is about to look like a Christmas tree on the NWS page with watches, advisories and warnings of all kinds.

[starsfan65]

The state is about to look like a Christmas tree on the NWS page with watches, advisories and warnings of all kinds.

Flash Flood watches, Severe Weather watches and Winter Weather watches!!!

[Haris]

I suppose if the front pushes through Austin we will not see as much heavy rain? Thoughts ?

[nathanc1969]

NWS in San Angelo is using the NAM and has moved the frozen precip line down south of I-20 but not quite into my area. Hopefully the trend will continue South!

[Ntxw]

I suppose if the front pushes through Austin we will not see as much heavy rain? Thoughts ?

Plenty on Friday. Regardless of cold, pretty good dose of rain for I-35 and eastward well ahead of the storm.

[bubba hotep]

It's hard to put much faith in the 12k NAM at long range. It has a cold snowy bias that produces pretty maps. The NAMs & SREF are usually fools gold beyond 48 hrs.

Yes the NAM can fool you, but it is often the first to pick up trends in winter. It happens every year where the GFS shows nothing and the NAM shows a big snow and the GFS caves. The Euro is in between and the Canadian is closer to the NAM. The GFS is the outlier here as it often is in these type events.

I think there are other setups that have more potential for shifting and that can play directly into the NAM bias. I guess I'm just not seeing a lot of room for a big shift to winter wx in DFW. Now, out to our NW it is a lot easier to dismiss the GFS and lean towards the more winter wx looking NAM.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Saw the NAM and had to come in here . I like it! I have some questions but will save them for later, rushing to a business meeting.


Also, looking ahead, whats the preicp like on the Euro for next week friday? Dry? Looks interesting.

[Ralph's Weather]

It's hard to put much faith in the 12k NAM at long range. It has a cold snowy bias that produces pretty maps. The NAMs & SREF are usually fools gold beyond 48 hrs.

Yes the NAM can fool you, but it is often the first to pick up trends in winter. It happens every year where the GFS shows nothing and the NAM shows a big snow and the GFS caves. The Euro is in between and the Canadian is closer to the NAM. The GFS is the outlier here as it often is in these type events.

I think there are other setups that have more potential for shifting and that can play directly into the NAM bias. I guess I'm just not seeing a lot of room for a big shift to winter wx in DFW. Now, out to our NW it is a lot easier to dismiss the GFS and lean towards the more winter wx looking NAM.

OK, I do not think anyone is is realistically thinking this will be a significant snow or anything like that for DFW proper, but some backend snow is very possible. Abilene to WF generally is still the sweet spot in my mind same as it has been all along.

[Brent]

Saw the NAM and had to come in here . I like it! I have some questions but will save them for later, rushing to a business meeting.


Also, looking ahead, whats the preicp like on the Euro for next week friday? Dry? Looks interesting.

Rain in Texas but a big snow in eastern Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

OK, I do not think anyone is is realistically thinking this will be a significant snow or anything like that for DFW proper, but some backend snow is very possible. Abilene to WF generally is still the sweet spot in my mind same as it has been all along.

We just want to wake up Saturday morning with surprise snowflakes! We are all smart enough on this board with enough heartbreaks to know better .

In your usual Nino climo we wouldn't even be talking about the chances here. It would be warm December. 70s!

This is how we started the first 15 days of 2015 and 2014 December.


2015



2014


Edited images.

[bubba hotep]

The FV3 seems more realistic fort this event in the favored areas in Texas. It looks like the Carolinas could get crushed by this system.

[bubba hotep]

OK, I do not think anyone is is realistically thinking this will be a significant snow or anything like that for DFW proper, but some backend snow is very possible. Abilene to WF generally is still the sweet spot in my mind same as it has been all along.

We just want to wake up Saturday morning with surprise snowflakes! We are all smart enough on this board with enough heartbreaks to know better .

In your usual Nino climo we wouldn't even be talking about the chances here. It would be warm December. 70s!

This is how we started the first 15 days of 2015 and 2014 December.


2015

Code: Select all

TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  52  38  45  -5  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.4 10 350   M    M   7        12 340
 2  60  38  49  -1  16   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.2 22 330   M    M   0        25 320
 3  61  35  48  -2  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.3  9 240   M    M   0        12 170
 4  60  39  50   1  15   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.0 12 120   M    M   1        16 130
 5  61  37  49   0  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.1 16 140   M    M   5        20 160
 6  65  41  53   4  12   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.5 15 310   M    M   2        19 320
 7  68  38  53   4  12   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.7 14 190   M    M   3 8      16 210
 8  72  44  58  10   7   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.7 22 170   M    M   5 8      27 170
 9  71  44  58  10   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 10 170   M    M   4        13 170
10  76  49  63  15   2   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.1 22 190   M    M   7        26 190
11  77  45  61  13   4   0 0.00  0.0    0 12.3 24 180   M    M   8        31 180
12  75  70  73  26   0   8 0.06  0.0    0 16.5 28 160   M    M  10 1      37 160
13  74  51  63  16   2   0 0.65  0.0    0 14.9 48 210   M    M   8 1      59 220
14  70  44  57  10   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.4 22 240   M    M   0        28 250
15  72  48  60  13   5   0    T  0.0    0  8.1 20 180   M    M   3        29 180

2014

Code: Select all

TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  66  31  49  -1  16   0 0.00  0.0    0 16.9 26 350   M    M   7        31 350
 2  48  31  40 -10  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.4 14 340   M    M   9        16 180
 3  57  48  53   3  12   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.9 15 140   M    M  10        18 140
 4  64  55  60  11   5   0 0.01  0.0    0  8.0 18 160   M    M  10 18     21 140
 5  77  55  66  17   0   1 0.02  0.0    0 12.6 24 220   M    M   8 1      28 200
 6  65  45  55   6  10   0 0.00  0.0    0 13.3 21 350   M    M   8        24 350
 7  52  42  47  -2  18   0    T  0.0    0  6.6 14 340   M    M   9 1      16 340
 8  56  40  48   0  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.8 13 330   M    M   6 1      15 320
 9  55  36  46  -2  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.4  9  40   M    M   8 12     11  10
10  56  40  48   0  17   0    T  0.0    0  5.2 13 130   M    M   9 1      15 130
11  66  50  58  10   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.4 14 190   M    M   9 18     16 190
12  71  58  65  18   0   0    T  0.0    0  8.6 16 170   M    M   8        21 160
13  71  57  64  17   1   0 0.00  0.0    0 13.4 24 190   M    M   7        26 190
14  67  61  64  17   1   0 0.09  0.0    0 13.4 23 170   M    M   8 1      29 170
15  65  49  57  10   8   0 0.02  0.0    0 14.4 24 310   M    M   2 1      30 280

That stuck out in the analogs like a nightmare! I remember back in August looking through some stuff and thinking we might not see winter until January because of the recent extreme warmth in Nov and the Dec nino warm look.

[Brent]

The FV3 seems more realistic fort this event in the favored areas in Texas. It looks like the Carolinas could get crushed by this system.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120512/fv3p_asnow_us_25.png

that snow hole going north into Oklahoma is weird

[Ralph's Weather]

The FV3 seems more realistic fort this event in the favored areas in Texas. It looks like the Carolinas could get crushed by this system.

Looks pretty good for where accumulating snow is likely. Still think there is a bit of back end but relying on that is risky business as we often dry slot quicker than modeled.

[rwfromkansas]

I hope DFW can get at least a few flakes. My wife's family in Abilene is definitely in a better spot.

[Brent]

Euro snow cutoff remains very close to Wichita Falls then up into Oklahoma above DFW

[wxman57]

All snow confined to the Panhandle in the 12Z EC run.

[Jarodm12]

Well I'm just going to have to hope that all of the global models are too warm.