Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

12z NAM dumps a ton of snow in NW Texas including WF. DFW ends the run with a little backside on the run. It's the coldest run yet. Much of it is the ULL pulling 850s down by the upper dynamics of trowal.

Yep, plenty cold enough at 850 on this run

850s in W and NTX are colder than Oklahoma on that run showing strong cold pocket of the ULL in the deformation band.

Yep, the biggest difference I'm beginning to notice is the NAM is starting to cut off the low (or at least more positive/slightly negative) at 500 while the ops keep it much more open/positively tilted (FV3 is attempting to go cut-off/neutral)...this trend is something to watch for on the Ops and key to it getting cold enough at the surface. The northern stream s/w interaction coming down from Canada appears to be a big factor in how this storm evolves....

[Ntxw]

Looks like another freeze this morning, currently 32 at DFW. Makes it 8 for the season I believe.

Looks like the airport got down to 31, surprising how many low bust we seen during this stretch.

The GFS, once again, is crazy. During cold intrusions this model consistently is a nutcase. Last night's 0z, I repeat less than 12 hours ago, the GFS had a low this morning for DFW at 39F. It's been abhorrent for just about every cold daily night low.

[Cerlin]

Looks like another freeze this morning, currently 32 at DFW. Makes it 8 for the season I believe.

Looks like the airport got down to 31, surprising how many low bust we seen during this stretch.

The GFS, once again, is crazy. During cold intrusions this model consistently is a nutcase. Last night's 0z, I repeat less tha 12 hours ago, the GFS had a low this morning for DFW at 39F. It's been abhorrent for just about every cold daily night low.

I’ve pretty much stopped looking at the GFS—it’s just not cutting it compared to other models, especially below 84 hrs.

[wxman57]

12Z NAM does predict quite a bit of snow for north Texas (not including the D-FW area). I think temps in the lower levels will be too warm for snow in the D-FW area. Couldn't rule out a stray flake as the precip ends, though.

[JayDT]

Hmmmmmmm, Very Interesting!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120512/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

Loving this trend!!!

[Ntxw]

Euro has a little snow in Wichita Falls again, slightly better than last run, also a little snow just across the border in Oklahoma north of DFW

oh and the end of the run has another Oklahoma snowstorm that is a close call along the Red River next Friday after more widespread rain

Meanwhile the 6z NAM has a foot of snow in Wichita Falls and Southern Oklahoma on the clown map lol with still a sharp cutoff just as it gets close to DFW

Going to have to eat some crow when I said nothing burger for the next storm. It is not going to warm much at all (For Texas) after the current storm. We have a saying around here that strong ULLs likes to find cold air or make it and that's what the Euro is showing the next storm does as it phases and drags down what cold there is.

This is what the right El Ninos are famous for! The deeper we go into the season the better the climo is and we don't need arctic blasts for snow with bowling balls. They keep coming and eventually one will thread the needle.

[starsfan65]

12Z NAM does predict quite a bit of snow for north Texas (not including the D-FW area). I think temps in the lower levels will be too warm for snow in the D-FW area. Couldn't rule out a stray flake as the precip ends, though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120512/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

But it is mighty close.

[Ralph's Weather]

Love when intuition from years of watching the weather can trump the models. Hoping trends continue. A bit later in the year and this would be epic.

[Ntxw]

Love when intuition from years of watching the weather can trump the models. Hoping trends continue. A bit later in the year and this would be epic.

In the first 1-2 weeks of December there will have been no less than 3 major winter storms in the plains. Last week was the big panhandle hooker that came out of Texas and dumped on Kansas and Nebraska. This week have this current storm, next week the big one on the Euro and other globals at varying degrees. There was even one that took a central plains track storm that slammed Chicago before that. The 500mb Greenland-Hudson Bay Rex block is a good one and key to this winter. Go back and do a reanalysis of all the major snow years in Texas you will see this very pattern. Forward this to late December, January, February when we repeat this pattern and it's a lock to rock even more.

I took a composite of the 500mb anomaly since Thanksgivings.

[Yukon Cornelius]

12Z NAM does predict quite a bit of snow for north Texas (not including the D-FW area). I think temps in the lower levels will be too warm for snow in the D-FW area. Couldn't rule out a stray flake as the precip ends, though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120512/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

[Jarodm12]

Wonder when the Winter storm watches move South East?

[Ntxw]

To note on the Nino front we are locked in. Not much in the northern tier, action in the southern tier. Relatively mild to normal up north while wet and cool to the south. Signature. But not Super so no overwhelming Pacific heat .

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1070287218185523200

[gpsnowman]

12Z NAM does predict quite a bit of snow for north Texas (not including the D-FW area). I think temps in the lower levels will be too warm for snow in the D-FW area. Couldn't rule out a stray flake as the precip ends, though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120512/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

Dang Yukon, you could get nailed with this. Amazing if it happens. You better post pics!!!!!!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hmmmmmmm, Very Interesting!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120512/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

Loving this trend!!!

Trend = Friend

[bubba hotep]

It's hard to put much faith in the 12k NAM at long range. It has a cold snowy bias that produces pretty maps. The NAMs & SREF are usually fools gold beyond 48 hrs.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 12z GFS is sticking to its gun. Warmest of the bunch and barely even cold enough for snow in the panhandle. The difference is stark between the NAM. 18z Sat GFS has DFW in the mid 40s while NAM was mid 30s. About the same gap difference for WF and OKC.

[Yukon Cornelius]

12Z NAM does predict quite a bit of snow for north Texas (not including the D-FW area). I think temps in the lower levels will be too warm for snow in the D-FW area. Couldn't rule out a stray flake as the precip ends, though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120512/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

Dang Yukon, you could get nailed with this. Amazing if it happens. You better post pics!!!!!!

If that exact map were to verify I wouldn’t be able to complain if I never saw another flake of snow again.

[Ntxw]

It's hard to put much faith in the 12k NAM at long range. It has a cold snowy bias that produces pretty maps. The NAMs & SREF are usually fools gold beyond 48 hrs.

That's true but it's the first model we have within 84 hours that's a high resolution model. We can compare it to others soon in a few days. It's fun to talk about but most of us know until the Euro has something we're just looking for trends of known biases.

[Ralph's Weather]

It's hard to put much faith in the 12k NAM at long range. It has a cold snowy bias that produces pretty maps. The NAMs & SREF are usually fools gold beyond 48 hrs.

Yes the NAM can fool you, but it is often the first to pick up trends in winter. It happens every year where the GFS shows nothing and the NAM shows a big snow and the GFS caves. The Euro is in between and the Canadian is closer to the NAM. The GFS is the outlier here as it often is in these type events.

[Brent]

It's hard to put much faith in the 12k NAM at long range. It has a cold snowy bias that produces pretty maps. The NAMs & SREF are usually fools gold beyond 48 hrs.

I know i know but i sure wish it would verify i guess what I'll be watching is does it still look snowy in a couple of days

It had snowy runs in November too that failed to verify then disappeared after a few runs