Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS as usual is way too warm on Friday. NAM is in the mid 40s with 30s along the Red RIver and western N TX. GFS is 10 degrees warmer other models in between. GFS still has the mid levels following the upper levels, Euro has the mid levels following the surface and the Canadian is in between. That will go a long way in determining where the heavy precip falls. I still see potential for Saturday to be colder question is if there will be any moisture left or if we dry slot as the coldest air moves in as per usual.

0Z Euro ensembles are not terrible, but they still generally hold the snow line west of a Abilene to WF to Paris line. A few members push snow into the I-20 corridor of N and NE TX though.

We really need that surface high over Nebraska not Iowa to really drive the cold straight down the Plains. with the highs centered over IA the cold has to cross the high terrain of MO & AR to get here.

[orangeblood]

GFS as usual is way too warm on Friday. NAM is in the mid 40s with 30s along the Red RIver and western N TX. GFS is 10 degrees warmer other models in between. GFS still has the mid levels following the upper levels, Euro has the mid levels following the surface and the Canadian is in between. That will go a long way in determining where the heavy precip falls. I still see potential for Saturday to be colder question is if there will be any moisture left or if we dry slot as the coldest air moves in as per usual.

0Z Euro ensembles are not terrible, but they still generally hold the snow line west of a Abilene to WF to Paris line. A few members push snow into the I-20 corridor of N and NE TX though.

We really need that surface high over Nebraska not Iowa to really drive the cold straight down the Plains. with the highs centered over IA the cold has to cross the high terrain of MO & AR to get here.

Yeah, a high parked over Northern Iowa below 1040 mb isn't going to get it done...too much topography working against us from that position!!

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS as usual is way too warm on Friday. NAM is in the mid 40s with 30s along the Red RIver and western N TX. GFS is 10 degrees warmer other models in between. GFS still has the mid levels following the upper levels, Euro has the mid levels following the surface and the Canadian is in between. That will go a long way in determining where the heavy precip falls. I still see potential for Saturday to be colder question is if there will be any moisture left or if we dry slot as the coldest air moves in as per usual.

0Z Euro ensembles are not terrible, but they still generally hold the snow line west of a Abilene to WF to Paris line. A few members push snow into the I-20 corridor of N and NE TX though.

We really need that surface high over Nebraska not Iowa to really drive the cold straight down the Plains. with the highs centered over IA the cold has to cross the high terrain of MO & AR to get here.

Yeah, a high parked over Northern Iowa below 1040 mb isn't going to get it done...too much topography working against us from that position!!

So close, if that high centered over Nebraska we would be talking about a much different storm. The southern stream storm looks to come in a touch too slow for us. My range Saturday morning on the ensembles is low 40s to mid 60s depending on the track of the surface low.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For you DFW folk, i would watch the strength of the HP. Best chance for a surprise. Pulling for you guys!

Update on the warm temps i referred to off the coast of SA. It has cooled drastically. I expect this cooling to move slightly west to cool the 1+2 region. I consider this a positive for winter weather here in Texas.



I am leaving for skiing, then to AZ for Christmas with family, can i put a hold on any winter weather in SE Tx till i come back? Please?

[Lagreeneyes03]

It must be even more rare for a November snowfall but I do remember the Thanksgiving Cowboys game in 1993. Leon Lett was quite the bonehead that game! lol

That was sleet, though.

[CaptinCrunch]

It must be even more rare for a November snowfall but I do remember the Thanksgiving Cowboys game in 1993. Leon Lett was quite the bonehead that game! lol

That was sleet, though.

actually it was a mix, but the primary type was sleet.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro looks pretty locked in on 2.5-3" of rain at DFW. That would move '18 into 2nd place behind '15. At this point, it would take record breaking December rainfall at DFW to overtake '15.

[northjaxpro]

It must be even more rare for a November snowfall but I do remember the Thanksgiving Cowboys game in 1993. Leon Lett was quite the bonehead that game! lol

That was sleet, though.

actually it was a mix, but the primary type was sleet.

That is correct. I remember watching that entire game and snow did mix in at times with primarily sleet falling , and it caused quite a glazed-coated field at Texas Stadium that Thanksgiving afternoon. Snow was covering the sleet on top of the artificial surface, like glaze on a doughnut lol... It was really unique watching that occur during the game.

[wxman57]

Speaking of that Cowboys' game from Thanksgiving 1993, here's an 18Z surface chart I plotted and analyzed for that day (Nov. 25th). Red contours are isodrosotherms (dewpoints). Freezing rain, sleet, and thunder with temps in the upper 20s across the D-FW area. Thunderstorm with sleet and 26 in Mineral Wells.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I swear I’m not seeing things. There are very light snow flurries falling up this way.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I swear I’m not seeing things. There are very light snow flurries falling up this way.

Also reports of flurries around Lawton.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I swear I’m not seeing things. There are very light snow flurries falling up this way.

I’m in okc on business, there have been flurries off and on for a couple of hours up here. Looks like it stretched down toward your area on radar.

[losf1981]

I swear I’m not seeing things. There are very light snow flurries falling up this way.

Also reports of flurries around Lawton.

screw those oklahoma people. They get all the winter weather!

[Snowflake7]

So its safe to say no snow for DFW this week/weekend....bahumbug
I was really hoping for some winter action.

[Cpv17]

I swear I’m not seeing things. There are very light snow flurries falling up this way.

On my weatherbug app, it says it’s mostly sunny where you are lol

[Yukon Cornelius]

I swear I’m not seeing things. There are very light snow flurries falling up this way.

On my weatherbug app, it says it’s mostly sunny where you are lol

It was until a couple hours ago. Go home weatherbug, you’re drunk.

[wxman57]

I swear I’m not seeing things. There are very light snow flurries falling up this way.

Model sounding has the freezing level up around 1500 ft or so, but relatively dry air aloft. Not much moisture available currently.

[Ralph's Weather]

It really is amazing how consistently too warm the GFS is with arctic intrusions even the new GFS seems to have the same bias though maybe not as bad. The Canadian is better but sometimes too cold. Thankfully we have the NAM for a reality check. I still think we have a good shot at wrap around flurries as this thing heads east and the cold air finally can get into our area. If that happens sooner maybe even a burst of snow as the main precip shield heads out. The main story will be the heavy rains with isolated 5+ inch spots.

[Ntxw]

It really is amazing how consistently too warm the GFS is with arctic intrusions even the new GFS seems to have the same bias though maybe not as bad. The Canadian is better but sometimes too cold. Thankfully we have the NAM for a reality check. I still think we have a good shot at wrap around flurries as this thing heads east and the cold air finally can get into our area. If that happens sooner maybe even a burst of snow as the main precip shield heads out. The main story will be the heavy rains with isolated 5+ inch spots.

Our best hope for significant changes is going to be the next 24-36 hours of runs. Better sampling, the air will be entering the US and now approaching within 100 hours.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the WPC is going more with the GFS over the Euro for qpf.