Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ntxw]

Maybe some day Dallas will get a snowstorm that is obvious but i mean even the foot in 2010 was a surprise lol

I just hope were not waiting too long for another threat if this one is done

For as long as I can remember only Feb 2004 was an obvious snowstorm. Ever since then everything has been a surprise. Snow wise that is. Ice has been easier to predict.

I want early snow, get it out of the way and emotions for later snow is easier. When you have to wait for the comeback in the end is annoying.

[Brent]

Maybe some day Dallas will get a snowstorm that is obvious but i mean even the foot in 2010 was a surprise lol

I just hope were not waiting too long for another threat if this one is done

For as long as I can remember only Feb 2004 was an obvious snowstorm. Ever since then everything has been a surprise. Snow wise that is. Ice has been easier to predict.

I want early snow, get it out of the way and emotions for later snow is easier. When you have to wait for the comeback in the end is annoying.

.
I agree I dont want to be waiting til February and then nothing happen again

[bubba hotep]

One of the snowier Euro Weeklies that I have seen for DFW with a mean near 2.5", about 2/3 of the members show snow with some heavy hitters. Also, the mid-month warm up looks to mostly miss Texas. Even though the MJO favors the mid-month warm up it looks like it is mostly canceled out by a wetter pattern across Texas.

Going into this winter, I felt anything short of a warm dry Dec would be a win. Everything that I am seeing still points to Jan and Feb rocking out.

[Ntxw]

One of the snowier Euro Weeklies that I have seen for DFW with a mean near 2.5", about 2/3 of the members show snow with some heavy hitters. Also, the mid-month warm up looks to mostly miss Texas. Even though the MJO favors the mid-month warm up it looks like it is mostly canceled out by a wetter pattern across Texas.

Going into this winter, I felt anything short of a warm dry Dec would be a win. Everything that I am seeing still points to Jan and Feb rocking out.

This is the best we can ask for during the +EPO episode. Despite the Alaskan trough at least they pinch off through the southwest and Texas. Great Lakes torch for sure though.

[bubba hotep]

Another thing of note on the Weeklies, IMHO, they now have pronounced warm bias in the long range across the NHEMI. This run looks like it gets DFW 10 or 12 freezes in the first 15 days of Jan, even with the long range warm bias

[weatherdude1108]

Gfs now has also 5-6” . This is serious

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[

Yeah, makes me more nervous that that we have lakes filled to capacity.

[Brent]

One of the snowier Euro Weeklies that I have seen for DFW with a mean near 2.5", about 2/3 of the members show snow with some heavy hitters. Also, the mid-month warm up looks to mostly miss Texas. Even though the MJO favors the mid-month warm up it looks like it is mostly canceled out by a wetter pattern across Texas.

Going into this winter, I felt anything short of a warm dry Dec would be a win. Everything that I am seeing still points to Jan and Feb rocking out.

So hope you're right i mean to be fair ive only seen a couple December snows ever and was hoping to add to that this year but as long as January and February are crazy

[Haris]

Can someone explain, for ex Ntwx what is with the ICON? What a bust that would be!

[aggiecutter]

North and NE Texas better keep eye on Monday-Tuesday week(17th and 18th) for snow. One of those El-Nino upper level lows will be coming a long during that time frame.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[dhweather]

Hi, I'm speaking for history. History says the overwhelming odds are is doesn't snow in DFW. This is what makes it so special when it happens, because it happens so infrequently.

In the last 50 years, there have been six times in the month of December where >1" of snow was recorded at DFW:
2013-14 2.1"
2009-2010 3.2"
2000-2001 1.5"
1986-87 1.7"
1983-84 2.0"
1972-73 1.4"

So that averages out to about once a decade.

The last 50 January's with >1" of snow in December at DFW?

2002-2003 1.2"
1984-85 3.4"
1978-79 1.8"
1977-78 4.1"
1976-77 5.4"
1972-73 2.3"

Again, about once a decade with >1" of snow in January at DFW.

February is a little better, roughly once every four years:

2014-15 2.3"
2010-11 4.0"
2009-10 12.6"
2003-04 2.6"
2002-03 2.0"
2001-02 3.5"
1995-96 1.5"
1987-88 2.7"
1984-85 1.7"
1979-80 1.6"
1977-78 13.5"
1974-75 3.7"
1967-68 2.7"


So our friend history tells us don't plan on it snowing, don't count on it, don't hope for it, and be happy when it actually does happen.


data source: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmosnow

[SnowintheFalls]

Oz GFS keeps everything frozen to the Texas and OK panhandles and a bit of NW OK. Not even close on this run.

[Brent]

Hi, I'm speaking for history. History says the overwhelming odds are is doesn't snow in DFW. This is what makes it so special when it happens, because it happens so infrequently.

In the last 50 years, there have been six times in the month of December where >1" of snow was recorded at DFW:
2013-14 2.1"
2009-2010 3.2"
2000-2001 1.5"
1986-87 1.7"
1983-84 2.0"
1972-73 1.4"

So that averages out to about once a decade.

The last 50 January's with >1" of snow in December at DFW?

2002-2003 1.2"
1984-85 3.4"
1978-79 1.8"
1977-78 4.1"
1976-77 5.4"
1972-73 2.3"

Again, about once a decade with >1" of snow in January at DFW.

February is a little better, roughly once every four years:

2014-15 2.3"
2010-11 4.0"
2009-10 12.6"
2003-04 2.6"
2002-03 2.0"
2001-02 3.5"
1995-96 1.5"
1987-88 2.7"
1984-85 1.7"
1979-80 1.6"
1977-78 13.5"
1974-75 3.7"
1967-68 2.7"


So our friend history tells us don't plan on it snowing, don't count on it, don't hope for it, and be happy when it actually does happen.


data source: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmosnow

if you look at the 90s its crazy how little it snowed 6 out of 10 years with a trace and only one with more than an inch

the 2010's has been a really snowy decade at DFW, it just took a wrong turn since 2016 lol

[SnowintheFalls]

It must be even more rare for a November snowfall but I do remember the Thanksgiving Cowboys game in 1993. Leon Lett was quite the bonehead that game! lol

[Brent]

what a difference 24 hours makes... last night's 0z Euro almost snowed into DFW, tonight its mostly confined to NW of Oklahoma City

At least it won't be THAT cold of a rain...

[Ralph's Weather]

NAM as usual is much more aggressive with the cold on Friday. This type event is typically the NAM's strong suit so I tend to believe it vs the globals. The globals and the NAM are very similar in all ways besides surface temps. NAM is a touch stronger with the SW trough.

[Yukon Cornelius]

In typical fashion all of the winter precip and snow has been taken out of the forecast along with the temps being forecasted higher. Now its a waiting game to see if it changes back in a couple days.

[Cerlin]

From strictly a precipitation standpoint, it looks like this event is going to be almost exactly the same as the last one in November, in terms of coverage and which places get snow. For instance, the 6z gfs seems like it cuts the snow precipitation off as it gets close to DFW—almost the exact thing it showed for November.

[orangeblood]

In typical fashion all of the winter precip and snow has been taken out of the forecast along with the temps being forecasted higher. Now its a waiting game to see if it changes back in a couple days.

Yeah, it appears the Arctic HP is just too far northeast/weak to have too much of a winter precip impact in our areas

[Portastorm]

If I had a dollar for every tweet like this I have seen from a respectable, professional meteorologist about the great POTENTIAL for this coming winter ... first few rounds of drinks for all y'all would be on me! Geez ... it almost worries me that everybody seems to think this winter is going wild and woolly.

[orangeblood]

If I had a dollar for every tweet like this I have seen from a respectable, professional meteorologist about the great POTENTIAL for this coming winter ... first few rounds of drinks for all y'all would be on me! Geez ... it almost worries me that everybody seems to think this winter is going wild and woolly.

Latest Euro Weeklies back this up as well...the stars are beginning to align and any Strat Warm event is icing on the winter cake!!