Texas Winter 2018-2019

[SnowintheFalls]

The cold is still showing to be somewhat close. It will be criminal if we get all of that precip and the cold is just an arms lenght away!

[Cpv17]

Op runs of the 0z GFS & FV3 sucked tonight. A lot less digging with that trough over the Baja. Euro doesn’t look good either.

[Brent]

Can someone please advise why the temps are warmer for N Texas vs the southeast. Dallas and ATL are same latitude yet Atl is mostly colder and have been getting more winter storms the passed few years.

+PNA .. here in Texas we need a neutral to slightly negative PNA to get some fun.

just to add to this... last year a lot of the DFW problem was the arctic air kept shunting the storms to our southeast... remember the times it snowed in Austin and College Station and Houston and we were just really cold and dry? Those are the storms that made for the snowy winter back east, had the storm track been just a bit NW those snows would have been over DFW and would have missed Atlanta largely

Amarillo and people to our NW really got shut out last year which was even crazier than DFW getting shut out given they average more snow

But our time is coming

[spencer817]

I'd be interested to see if the GEFS wins as the outlier at this point...

[Haris]

Op runs of the 0z GFS & FV3 sucked tonight. A lot less digging with that trough over the Baja. Euro doesn’t look good either.

Yes, true they have trended a bit more N tonight but we have a long long way to go still and models have a lot of trouble with handling the STJ

Also, not really 'suck' Euro is actually wetter and I will take the 2-4" on the GFS still. Never good to be in the bulls eye either

[Haris]

Atlanta the last decade has been doing incredibly good snow wise.

Had many inches on Christmas 2009, luck enough I was there since I have family. Feb 2010. Jan 2011. 2014 panic as we all know lol. 2015, 2016,

and last year near a foot on Dec 8th with an additional 2" this year!

Soo jealous

[Cpv17]

Op runs of the 0z GFS & FV3 sucked tonight. A lot less digging with that trough over the Baja. Euro doesn’t look good either.

Yes, true they have trended a bit more N tonight but we have a long long way to go still and models have a lot of trouble with handling the STJ

Also, not really 'suck' Euro is actually wetter and I will take the 2-4" on the GFS still. Never good to be in the bulls eye either

Yeah I see the Euro is still wet lol good!!

[northjaxpro]

One big thing I see lacking with the models, both GFS and EURO: No.real strong polar Highs (1040 mb +) have yet to be shown dropping south into the CONUS. Teleconnections still not yet favorable for the true arctic air masses, which have yet to be tapped or dislodged.

I am thinking we may have to wait until the mid to latter part of this month, or possibly even January before we see these big arctic plunges come south.

[Ntxw]

To reiterate again depth of the cold air is everything. What happens midweek up north can have consequences here. We can probably get away with a warmer surface as long as a loft it is very cold. And again a surface low in SE Texas along the coast is not going to have a big precip shield in Oklahoma.





This is one of the cases where we want to the storm to move a little faster to take advantage of the cold in place. Slow SW return flow is not beneficial.

[Ntxw]

Beyond this period though, there is still signs of a mid month torch centered around the Great Lakes and northern tier. Hopefully the STJ will be active during that time and keep us with rains and while milder, at least stormy. A new Scandinavian ridge will take place by mid month and retrogress and we're back to where we were mid November. I don't think this is the winter for big cold, but more usual of an El Nino. A lot of storms we will be nitpicking for marginals with climo helping as the season goes on. Much like November was. Nothing was shockingly cold just consistently cold enough.

[Cerlin]

Beyond this period though, there is still signs of a mid month torch centered around the Great Lakes and northern tier. Hopefully the STJ will be active during that time and keep us with rains and while milder, at least stormy. A new Scandinavian ridge will take place by mid month and retrogress and we're back to where we were mid November. I don't think this is the winter for big cold, but more usual of an El Nino. A lot of storms we will be nitpicking for marginals with climo helping as the season goes on. Much like November was. Nothing was shockingly cold just consistently cold enough.

https://images2.imgbox.com/d7/12/hV8PAvx4_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/31/ac/EcoX057N_o.jpg

So is this kind of a case where, if we’re gonna get something, we need it to happen with this system we’re all watching next weekend, or else we’ll have to wait until around Christmastime?

[bubba hotep]

One of the things that stands out to me with this system is that the wave spacing isn't overly favorable. So we end up seeing the majority of the cold air sliding off to the the NE with a northern stream wave. If that wave was slower then we would have a much more favorable setup. This gets back to the Pacific not necessarily playing along, we would want to see lower heights out north of Hawaii and more ridging across Alaska.

[Ntxw]

So is this kind of a case where, if we’re gonna get something, we need it to happen with this system we’re all watching next weekend, or else we’ll have to wait until around Christmastime?

It's our best shot within the next 2 weeks at least. We lose cold air source when Canada warms up from Pacific jet extension. It can still snow, if storms are big and deep enough. Thankfully we are in an El Nino and not a La Nina or cold and dry or in the case of the last two years, warm and dry.

[gpsnowman]

Yeah, not expecting huge arctic fronts the season but hopefully, similar to 2009-10, mostly cloudy days with a front/system every 3 or 4 days keeping things honest, therefore increasing our chances of something frozen falling.

[spencer817]

So is this kind of a case where, if we’re gonna get something, we need it to happen with this system we’re all watching next weekend, or else we’ll have to wait until around Christmastime?

It's our best shot within the next 2 weeks at least. We lose cold air source when Canada warms up from Pacific jet extension. It can still snow, if storms are big and deep enough. Thankfully we are in an El Nino and not a La Nina or cold and dry or in the case of the last two years, warm and dry.

Is this still a case where we can see the mesocale models 5 degrees colder allowing more ice to be shown farther south?

[Ntxw]

Is this still a case where we can see the mesocale models 5 degrees colder allowing more ice to be shown farther south?

I don't think ice is a huge threat, my opinion. To get ice you need to be substantially colder at the surface ahead of time or during while warm air layer above. That's not going to be the case, if anything we are hoping for cooler surface temperatures to match the cold air above. If the surface is cold enough, the column above will be well cold enough for snow. Either rain or snow.

[spencer817]

I also wonder why these models advect more warm air north like the FV3

[bubba hotep]

I also wonder why these models advect more warm air north like the FV3

Look at the modeled flow at H7 & H5.

[Brent]

The Euro is colder, with the snow closer to N TX. Actually has a little in Wichita Falls this run.

[Haris]

If you want heavy rains, trends remain very nice!


EURO up to 3.6" in Austin

GFS 5"

With lakes and rivers full , minor flooding possible. Within 120 hours almost. Confidence rising