Texas Fall 2018

[Haris]

The end of the 12z FV3-GFS shows a classic TX snowstorm developing. Cold air is in place across the state with a deep low pressure system approaching from Mexico.

The 12z GFS looks nothing like it.

*IF it were to verify, it would be the absolute exact same day as last year!

[Ralph's Weather]

I know -EPO is great for arctic blasts, but how is the -PNA/-AO combo for us? Would that be promising? As said above, a trough digging west of texas that tracks across the state would be the best orientation for moisture.

-AO along with a -PNA in winter is a great snow combo for Texas. Especially as the SW low slides east and is suppressed south by the -AO.

[Brent]

The end of the 12z FV3-GFS shows a classic TX snowstorm developing. Cold air is in place across the state with a deep low pressure system approaching from Mexico.

The 12z GFS looks nothing like it.

*IF it were to verify, it would be the absolute exact same day as last year!

hopefully this time DFW Isn't left snowless

[Cerlin]

The end of the 12z FV3-GFS shows a classic TX snowstorm developing. Cold air is in place across the state with a deep low pressure system approaching from Mexico.

The 12z GFS looks nothing like it.

*IF it were to verify, it would be the absolute exact same day as last year!

hopefully this time DFW Isn't left snowless

With our luck, every city in the state of Texas will report a foot of snow except DFW, which will have nothing.

[Cpv17]

Models are blah right now, but I’m gonna choose to believe you guys over the models so if y’all are saying interesting weather is coming then that’s what I’m gonna believe!

[Ntxw]

I know -EPO is great for arctic blasts, but how is the -PNA/-AO combo for us? Would that be promising? As said above, a trough digging west of texas that tracks across the state would be the best orientation for moisture.

-AO along with a -PNA in winter is a great snow combo for Texas. Especially as the SW low slides east and is suppressed south by the -AO.

I'm usually not an advocate for the +PNA but during +ENSO with a baja low the +PNA is actually pretty good. NW flow from the northern branch and SW flow from the southern branch can click. It just doesn't work in neutral or -ENSO since there is no subtropical jet and just dry cold.

[Cpv17]

I know -EPO is great for arctic blasts, but how is the -PNA/-AO combo for us? Would that be promising? As said above, a trough digging west of texas that tracks across the state would be the best orientation for moisture.

-AO along with a -PNA in winter is a great snow combo for Texas. Especially as the SW low slides east and is suppressed south by the -AO.

I'm usually not an advocate for the +PNA but during +ENSO with a baja low the +PNA is actually pretty good. NW flow from the northern branch and SW flow from the southern branch can click. It just doesn't work in neutral or -ENSO since there is no subtropical jet and just dry cold.

But doesn’t a +PNA send the cold east of us and we just get a glancing blow?

[Ntxw]

But doesn’t a +PNA send the cold east of us and we just get a glancing blow?

Generally speaking, yes. But even that glancing cold is enough to snow if there is a baja/southwest low behind it to bring moisture. Houston's earliest snowfall on Dec 4, 2009 was during a very +PNA. Usually only works in El Nino.

[Brent]

Models are blah right now, but I’m gonna choose to believe you guys over the models so if y’all are saying interesting weather is coming then that’s what I’m gonna believe!

I wouldnt be surprised if a storm just pops with not much notice as i recall thats what happened last December. A few days before the same models had no freezes and such and were already in a way different pattern than then

[Cpv17]

But doesn’t a +PNA send the cold east of us and we just get a glancing blow?

Generally speaking, yes. But even that glancing cold is enough to snow if there is a baja/southwest low behind it to bring moisture. Houston's earliest snowfall on Dec 4, 2009 was during a very +PNA. Usually only works in El Nino.

It’s funny you mention that. I was literally just going through some old pictures and I found some from that event. It wasn’t much, but it was enough for me to build a small snowman lol we got about 2” here.

The past 3 snow events we’ve had here all happened in December. 04 Christmas snow, then December 09, and then last year. I thought climo wise SETX sees the most snow in February, but that hasn’t really been the case here lately.

[Texas Snowman]

Happy Thanksgiving Day everyone!!!!!!

Among many other things, I’m thankful for Storm2k and the community of Texans who love the weather.

And that includes our beloved Heat Miser. Happy Turkey Day to Wxman57!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Happy Thanksgiving! Frosty this morning in North Texas.

[CaptinCrunch]

Taking a break from model watching to wish each and every one here a Happy Thanksgiving and hope you have a wonderful and safe holiday!!

Now back to our model hugging...

[bubba hotep]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Hopefully we will be celebrating this at Christmas!

[bubba hotep]

This would be some serious cold coming our way on the FV3

[bubba hotep]

Not a snow storm but I would gladly take all the rain on the 12z GFS

[Cpv17]

Not a snow storm but I would gladly take all the rain on the 12z GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112212/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

Me and you both. This past week here in SETX the models from a couple weeks ago busted big time. They were originally saying 3-6” widespread totals for SETX this week and then they backed down to like a quarter inch to an inch a couple days before the event. So if we can’t get cold and snow then I’d sure like some good rains. The weather has been really boring and tbh really ugly here lately. We’ve had so many cold overcast days with mist or drizzle here lately and to me that stuff is just a nuisance. If it’s gonna rain, then rain. Not this misty drizzle stuff..not my type of thing.

[Brent]

Not a snow storm but I would gladly take all the rain on the 12z GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112212/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

I could live with that... how the wet pattern just ended has been kind of annoying when you're hoping for snow and it can't even really rain

[Haris]

Euro has snow.

Ps: Happy Thanksgiving! Have a blessed day everyone!

[Brent]

Euro has snow.

Ps: Happy Thanksgiving! Have a blessed day everyone!

hmmm... next Friday. Last day of November.