Texas Fall 2018

[Haris]

euro has flurries san antonio

[Brent]

Euro has nothing Wednesday here, snow doesn't start up til Arkansas. The cold core looks to be more in Louisiana

[Ralph's Weather]

I have a hard time believing that the Wed system won't find some moisture. It looks like a classic El Nino closed low. They tend to wring out any and all moisture available. NE TX could range from sunny to heavy snow ave it is just two days out.

[Cerlin]

Is it just me or does it seem like models really overestimated the amount of precipitation that NTX would get? It’s only 7:30 and based on some of the local radars it looks like just about gone already.

[Captmorg70]

Is it just me or does it seem like models really overestimated the amount of precipitation that NTX would get? It’s only 7:30 and based on some of the local radars it looks like just about gone already.

The models have been basically showing this the last 24-36hrs when they all started becoming very progressive(positive tilted)

[gto67]

A friend in Clarendon sent me a text that they have 4" of snow and wind chill of 16F. The current weather in Weimar reminds me of Reforger FTX in Germany in the early seventies, misty and in the 40's.

[jaguars_22]

When is the flurries for San Antonio? Does it include coastal texas? If it gets cold enough maybe we can squeeze out some mischief with a coastal low forming out of mexico and drifting along texas coast!

[Ralph's Weather]

44 and 2 inches of rain last night. Now just drizzly.

[weatherdude1108]

They have the time travel tech to know that the record low will be 27 degrees at Austin Mabry on November 13, 2911. Pretty cool!


With the cold temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning several record lows could either be tied or broken at our main climate sites. With the freezing temperatures, especially Wednesday morning remember to check on and take steps to protect the four P's: People, Pipes, Plants, and Pets.

CLIMATE...
The low temperature records for Wednesday the 14th are:
Austin Camp Mabry......26 in 1916
Austin Bergstrom.......25 in 2014
Del Rio................28 in 1976
San Antonio............28 in 1916

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[Cerlin]

They have the time travel tech to know that the record low will be 27 degrees at Austin Mabry on November 13, 2911. Pretty cool!

http://i63.tinypic.com/2d2ap2e.png
With the cold temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning several record lows could either be tied or broken at our main climate sites. With the freezing temperatures, especially Wednesday morning remember to check on and take steps to protect the four P's: People, Pipes, Plants, and Pets.

CLIMATE...
The low temperature records for Wednesday the 14th are:
Austin Camp Mabry......26 in 1916
Austin Bergstrom.......25 in 2014
Del Rio................28 in 1976
San Antonio............28 in 1916

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Wonder if DFW will get snow by then...

[Captmorg70]

It looks like the Euro was on the right track all along. 500mb level at least. The CMC/ICON/NAM all had times they showed more digging and a less progressive trough, but they all trended towards what the Euro showed.

Most of the models are showing a closed low on Wednesday.We may have an very slim chance of something occurring with it like the CMC show. If you look at the latest 12km NAM, you can see it’s effects in NE Arkansas where it starts producing snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The low is tilted the wrong way. Eastern side of the low would be the side producing moisture and lift. Unfortunately it's not showing promise at the moment. Not saying it wont happen though. Models are obviously having trouble with this.

[CaptinCrunch]

Rain amounts here in DFW were pretty much on target, as the light showers moved in last night. Currently its lite drizzle and yes its moving out. Precipitation was to far in front of the colder air mass that will move in later this afternoon.

Models are fun to watch and get excited over, but the over all setup of this event wasn't conducive for winter precipitation anywhere other than the Panhandle.

We are in a pretty good place this winter for these systems to develop and have the cold in place. It's only the beginning to a loooong model hugging season.

It's not even Thanksgiving yet.......

[Yukon Cornelius]

Few flurries up this way.

[bubba hotep]

Is it just me or does it seem like models really overestimated the amount of precipitation that NTX would get? It’s only 7:30 and based on some of the local radars it looks like just about gone already.

It looks like the airport picked up less than 1/4" and models had shown up to 1" but a pretty tight gradient. The gradient verified with ares to the SE picking up a lot more rain, the NW edge just pulled up short for DFW.

[Captmorg70]

So random Observation:

There is more snow hanging around in western OK and more rain in S Texas than the HRRR has been modeling all day. Probably won’t mean anything for us, but is interesting.

Also about 6/50 members of Euro had some snow for DFW on Thursday

[SnowintheFalls]

Few flurries up this way.

We got to see some snowflakes in the air this morning and it is getting me excited for this winter. I am hoping we will get plenty of wintry weather opportunities.

[Ralph's Weather]

Maybe I get lucky with a flurry this evening. The zone between 800-925mb looks to be saturated for a few hours. This is a similar sounding to the current sounding out towards WF and Abilene. Reaching for straws here. Models for Wed have not changed much at all over the weekend. Still only the Canadian global and hi res show accumulation in NE TX.

[weatherdude1108]

They mentioned how rare it is for this forecast office to end it's initial "Freeze Warning" program in one event. It looks to be the case here. Also, pops may increase late this weekend. Good chili/cocoa/fireplace weather times.

023
FXUS64 KEWX 122039
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
239 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The cold front has pushed south through the CWA and has left behind
breezy northerly winds. Wind speeds remain around 15-25 mph with
higher gusts. All sites are below Wind Advisory Criteria and should
remain that way through the evening. Light rain/drizzle continues to
slowly end from west to east as drier air begins to filter into the
region. All activity should end by the beginning of the the tonight
period and will show a dry forecast for the short-term forecast.
Cloud cover will likely hold on for most areas tonight which will
help with temperatures somewhat. However, areas within the current
Freeze Warning are expected to reach 32 degrees or lower tonight and
see no reasons to make any changes to the Freeze Warning.

For tomorrow, skies should finally clear but temperatures will only
get into the lower to upper 40s with continued north winds around
10-20 mph continuing the cold air advection. Winds will begin to
diminish tomorrow night, and the clear skies, light winds, and very
dry air will allow for near optimal radiational cooling conditions.
Lows will likely be in the 20s for the entire CWA. Will need another
Freeze Warning for the counties that do not see a freeze tonight, and
this will likely be issued by tomorrow morning. It is not a frequent
occurrence that our office can end its initial Freeze Warning
program in one initial event, but this looks to be the case.


&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Dry weather will continue through the beginning of the long-term
forecast. Another freeze will be likely for most of the area
Wednesday night after highs Wednesday in the 50s. A slow warming
trend will continue through the weekend before the next front looks
to arrive around Sunday. Models have come in a bit wetter with this
front and will introduce a 20 PoP for the western half of the area
Sunday. Models continue to show lingering rain chances into Monday
but will hold off on multiple days of PoPs until there is more
consistency in the medium-range guidance. If this trend continues,
PoPs will need to be expanded and increase across the area for the
end of the long-term portion of the forecast.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Few flurries up this way.

We got to see some snowflakes in the air this morning and it is getting me excited for this winter. I am hoping we will get plenty of wintry weather opportunities.

It’s still snowing lightly here in Clay Co.