5 PM advisory=14.4n-47.0w 65 mph moving NW

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... v_nt4.html

No change in direction but a slight increase in the winds as the models anticipate 2 hours earlier in the 18z run.The NHC track is the same as the 11 AM going to the fishes.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt4.html

Here is the discussion as they want to see consistency from UKMET and GFS about a more west track from them before changing the NHC forecast track.

[caneman]

This system and surronding iatmosphere are far too complex to be calling for an island miss from model run to model run. UKMET I believe has been one of the better models throughout this year and last year so until I see it jumping on a North trend on a consistent basis, I say the islands aren't clear just yet..

[Rainband]

I think if you look at the upper level conditions ahead of Nick..it's safe to say a turn away from the Islands is a good bet..but nothing is certain in the tropics. I say 70/30

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Luis. Let's hope it stays away from the islands.

[HurricaneGirl]

[http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.htmlurl]

I don't know if I did this right but it is a cool loop

[Josephine96]

Well fish or not.. Our dear friend Nick is approaching hurricane status. Hmm.. Maybe everybody's preseason numbers will get noticed again with the number of hurricanes and storms we have had.