Texas Fall 2018

[Cpv17]

Fresh off the presses the ICON!

https://images2.imgbox.com/8e/f7/ESmGEx75_o.png

Isn’t the ICON model garbage though? I know it is for tracking the tropics.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS trended towards it. Dig and partial phase.



Dig this a little more and if the models are not catching the baja moisture plume then game

[Jarodm12]

Fresh off the presses the ICON!

https://images2.imgbox.com/8e/f7/ESmGEx75_o.png

Isn’t the ICON model garbage though? I know it is for tracking the tropics.

Well I mean take a look at the cmc or the GFS both showing a major winter storm for our area if the euro follows suit I'm sold

[Ntxw]

Even the 0z CMC is trending towards more storm.

[Brent]

Fresh off the presses the ICON!

https://images2.imgbox.com/8e/f7/ESmGEx75_o.png

Isn’t the ICON model garbage though? I know it is for tracking the tropics.

Well I mean take a look at the cmc or the GFS both showing a major winter storm for our area if the euro follows suit I'm sold

dunno if I'd consider it a major winter storm when its probably a couple inches max but any snow in November would be a win

[Jarodm12]

I'll tell you what though, if the cmc temps verify over the next week it will be in the single digits here in Oklahoma by Wednesday lol

[TheProfessor]

GFS now has it's snow axis over me. CMC has jumped way west the past few runs and has joined the Euro. This is going to be an Indiana storm before I know it lol. The FV3 will be interesting, it has be showing some big totals east of me. The GEFS has been similar. Don't want to see the bit totals over me right now, but I'd like to see it point that direction on Saturday lol.

[Haris]

I want snow in Austin!

[Haris]

Winter starting early this yr

[SnowintheFalls]

Isn’t the ICON model garbage though? I know it is for tracking the tropics.

Well I mean take a look at the cmc or the GFS both showing a major winter storm for our area if the euro follows suit I'm sold

dunno if I'd consider it a major winter storm when its probably a couple inches max but any snow in November would be a win

It would be great to see snow before the winter months. After last year I'll be thankful for any bit of snow we get in NTX!

[Ntxw]

Well I mean take a look at the cmc or the GFS both showing a major winter storm for our area if the euro follows suit I'm sold

dunno if I'd consider it a major winter storm when its probably a couple inches max but any snow in November would be a win

It would be great to see snow before the winter months. After last year I'll be thankful for any bit of snow we get in NTX!

Even if it doesn't snow, the cold is there early . It will feel great! Enough of the warm Falls.

[Ralph's Weather]

I like what I'm seeing. The trend is in our favor. Maybe we can even get lucky with STJ moisture. This could be an active weekend of model watching.

[SnowintheFalls]

dunno if I'd consider it a major winter storm when its probably a couple inches max but any snow in November would be a win

It would be great to see snow before the winter months. After last year I'll be thankful for any bit of snow we get in NTX!

Even if it doesn't snow, the cold is there early . It will feel great! Enough of the warm Falls.

I am definitely ready to start busting into the rick of oak I just stocked up on!

[Brent]

GFS ensembles

[somethingfunny]

GFS ensembles

http://i66.tinypic.com/2mgmgwl.png

As an anti-hype exercise in these situations I always ignore the ensembles that show snow for DFW and instead count the ensembles that show NO snow so I can temper my expectations.

10/20 ensembles show no snow... 50% have a snow chance

[SnowintheFalls]

Does the Euro still run late night?

[Brent]

Does the Euro still run late night?

It's just coming out now, around 12:30-1am with the time change

and all the snow is in the Panhandle and Oklahoma this run

[AubreyStorm]

Yesssssssss!

Freezzeeeeee! Denton, Texas

[srainhoutx]

Light freeze/frost possible across areas along and N of I-10 in SE Texas early to mid next week.

[bubba hotep]

The system early next week is very dynamic but it seems like we played this game a lot last year and always came up empty - positive tilted trough, big cold blast, models showing back end snow for DFW. Unless the trough orientation and timing changes, it will be very hard to get any snow in DFW. Temps are in the 40s and 50s when the best combo of moisture and lift moves across DFW, precipitation of any kind is limited, and then dry air crashes in. Only 1 Euro EPS member shows a setup that would allow for a system that would wrap significant precipitation back into the colder air producing snow for DFW.