11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9
Location: 29.5°N 42.6°W
Moving: SSE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/Bgu0Vii.jpg)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles [...]
Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at
least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
this trend, but is very low confidence.
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...
supercane4867 wrote:Just want to bring this upSubtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...
supercane4867 wrote:Just want to bring this upSubtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...
yzerfan wrote:She's reminding me of Hurricane Kyle (2002) and Hurricane Epsilon ('I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.') in terms of storms taking long Atlantic meanders
craptacular wrote:With how serious Michael is, at least we get some humor from the NHC on Leslie. (EDIT: I'm not the only one!)Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at
least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
this trend, but is very low confidence.
...I was too
premature last night...
plasticup wrote:This is Day 18 with no end in sight. NHC sees another 5 days, comfortably. GFS keeps this storm going another 10+ days. Everyone is focus on Michael, for obvious reasons, but I think Leslie is one of the coolest storms in several years.
I clearly drew the small straw in having to make Leslie's forecast
tonight because this situation is resulting in one of the largest
guidance spreads I have seen, about 1000 miles on day 3 and over
2000 miles at day 5.
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