ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
...EVERLASTING LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9
Location: 29.5°N 42.6°W
Moving: SSE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9
Location: 29.5°N 42.6°W
Moving: SSE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Satellite and microwave data indicate that Leslie has become a
hurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time.
hurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Leslie has made a nice comeback and has regained hurricane intensity.. She continues to rack up the ACE for sure. She' s hanging around for quite awhile longer too!
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
This part got me.
The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles [...]
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
With how serious Michael is, at least we get some humor from the NHC on Leslie. (EDIT: I'm not the only one!)
Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at
least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
this trend, but is very low confidence.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Just want to bring this up
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
To be fair, her first incarnation only lasted about 2 days.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Just want to bring this upSubtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...
Lol.. Oops. If only this forecaster at NHC could have had any idea LOL.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Just want to bring this upSubtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...
Leslie pulling a SURPRISE BLEEP meme moment this year
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
She's reminding me of Hurricane Kyle (2002) and Hurricane Epsilon ('I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.') in terms of storms taking long Atlantic meanders
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
If it really does end up turning back to the west and surviving, it will surely make it into a handful of miraculous storm tracks and put most to shame in weirdness and longevity.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
yzerfan wrote:She's reminding me of Hurricane Kyle (2002) and Hurricane Epsilon ('I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.') in terms of storms taking long Atlantic meanders
Don't forget 2012 Nadine, it lasted for more than 20 days and made several transitions from subtropical, to tropical, to extratropical, to tropical, to hurricane...like Leslie.
This is the type of systems that I miss and make me sad when they finally dissipate.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
craptacular wrote:With how serious Michael is, at least we get some humor from the NHC on Leslie. (EDIT: I'm not the only one!)Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at
least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
this trend, but is very low confidence.
I like this gem from Forecaster Blake in Discussion #55:
...I was too
premature last night...
(Referring to predicting Leslie beginning extratropical transition, but )
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
This is Day 18 with no end in sight. NHC sees another 5 days, comfortably. GFS keeps this storm going another 10+ days. Everyone is focus on Michael, for obvious reasons, but I think Leslie is one of the coolest storms in several years.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
plasticup wrote:This is Day 18 with no end in sight. NHC sees another 5 days, comfortably. GFS keeps this storm going another 10+ days. Everyone is focus on Michael, for obvious reasons, but I think Leslie is one of the coolest storms in several years.
Yeah I could see this storm setting all types of records.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Gordon
life was about 4 weeks. he brought much needed rain to tampa (at the time)
life was about 4 weeks. he brought much needed rain to tampa (at the time)
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Up to 70kts now. Bring on the ACE!
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Some more zingers from an openly frustrated forecaster in the latest discussion:
Starting to resemble some of the weary quips made in the latter stages of the 2005 season. Who'd have thought in the "unfavorable" year of 2018?
I clearly drew the small straw in having to make Leslie's forecast
tonight because this situation is resulting in one of the largest
guidance spreads I have seen, about 1000 miles on day 3 and over
2000 miles at day 5.
Starting to resemble some of the weary quips made in the latter stages of the 2005 season. Who'd have thought in the "unfavorable" year of 2018?
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