ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HDGator]

983 mb with 13 kt winds..

Yes just saw that recon observation, that's concerning. Circulation still hasn't organized and may be shifting NNE to NE from initial fix. But pressure is dropping even with the slow organization. If Michael gets his act together, it doesn't look good.

[shah83]

That's a "gotta sit down" moment for me. I was not expecting 983mb.

[northjaxpro]

No doubt for sure the center is tucked in that CDO. Likely Hurricane Michael at 5 a.m. advisory.. Rapidly intensiying also already.

[Aric Dunn]

thats 10 mb from last pass. winds were already borderline.

winds should catch up to pressure. should easily be a hurricane by the time recon leaves assuming they do at least 2 more paasses

[Aric Dunn]

who has the VDM. ?

[NDG]

If anything the convection has swung towards the LLC, might be the reason why such a drop in pressure.

[NDG]

The Euro and GFS along with the HWRF are not so crazy after all, if anything it is deepening faster than what the global models showed.

[Aric Dunn]

they are doing another quick pass. I wonder if they are going to do the RI flight pattern???

[Hammy]

I had to double check the pressure twice to make sure I was seeing what I thought I was, at first I was figuring 1MB drop

[deltadog03]

well dang...that escalated quickly.

[northjaxpro]

OK.gang. I am out of here for now. I have so much preps tonorrow along with work. No doubt in my view we have a rapidly intenisifying tropical cyclone and the 5 a.m. advisory will be a fascinating package in my view from the NHC.

I will check back a bit later.

[p1nheadlarry]

:uarrow: I had to double check the pressure twice to make sure I was seeing what I thought I was, at first I was figuring 1MB drop

Safe to say I don’t think any of us expected that

[Sciencerocks]

I think this is likely going to be a cat4 landfall on the United states. This is the big one for this year.

[HDGator]

OK.gang. I am out of here for now. I have so much preps tonorrow along with work. No doubt in my view we have a rapidly intenisifying tropical cyclone and the 5 a.m. advisory will be a fascinating package in my vjew from the NHC.

I will check back a bit later.

Take care and stay safe!

[HDGator]

I think this is likely going to be a cat4 landfall on the United states. This is the big one for this year.

I really hope not. The storm surge would be really bad with this scenario. But I am really getting concerned. I don't post here much. It seems to only be when bad stuff happens. I hope that I'm wrong this time.

[ozonepete]

I never made the bold statement. People should be ready for anything, anytime, anywhere. And we all know models have weaknesses as well as strengths.

Then you shouldn't have made your original statement. If you want to make statements on here that can cause people unnecessary worry or to feel that they are in no danger when they might be, then we always ask you to include a disclaimer that you are not a meteorologist qualified to issue forecasts. Ok?

[ozonepete]

OK.gang. I am out of here for now. I have so much preps tonorrow along with work. No doubt in my view we have a rapidly intenisifying tropical cyclone and the 5 a.m. advisory will be a fascinating package in my vjew from the NHC.

I will check back a bit later.

Take care and stay safe!

Stay safe Jax.

[p1nheadlarry]

I think this is likely going to be a cat4 landfall on the United states. This is the big one for this year.

I really hope not. The storm surge would be really bad with this scenario. But I am really getting concerned. I don't post here much. It seems to only be when bad stuff happens. I hope that I'm wrong this time.

I fekt the NHC intensity was fair, given the strength the models bumped Michael to vs the possibility of shear and a cooler shelf near landfall, but the Forgotten Coast not sitting pretty...

[NDG]

One last image before I go back to bed, the satellite image of when the latest fix of 983mb was made at 6:47z
Convection right over the LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like REcon is doing the New Rapid Intensification Flight pattern