ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

Eastward jog @ hour 66 maybe as far east of Panama City Maybe closer to Ft Walton

Let's split the difference and call it Grayton/Santa Rosa Beach

Santa Rosa County here...just East of Pensacola, so I'd rather not lol

[Evil Jeremy]

What’s uk show

20 minutes out...

[chaser1]

What’s uk show

I don't believe the UK is out yet; perhaps within an hour or so

[djones65]

Remember, global models have significant history or track record of weakening ridges too quickly. I still personally believe Michael will track a little more west of models currently. Therefore, Destin and Fort Walton Beach need to be prepared... and obviously due to the well documented storm surge prone Big Bend be prepared NOW... because escape routes will be flooded well in advance of the center! In my opinion. I lived in Tallahassee for 4 years in the early 80's when going to school there. And I understand just how vulnerable you guys in the areas east of Apalachicola are!

[Evil Jeremy]

UKMET is in:

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET is in:

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46

well luckily the NHC is only following the UKMET for track and not intensity lol..

a modest 941 mb lol

[MrJames]

UK Met shifts west close to the current NHC track

[FLpanhandle91]

Those plots take Michael heading NNE into the St. Marks area.

[Hurricaneman]

Those plots take Michael heading NNE into the St. Marks area.

Right about where Hermine made landfall in 2016

[northjaxpro]

Yeah right into the.Big Bend region.941 mb.

[typhoonty]

Today has not been a fun day sitting here in Tallahassee. Hermine belted Tallahassee and the track seems pretty close except 1-2 categories stronger. I lost power for 12 days during Hermine, not looking forward to this one.

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS has been very steady on its landfall location. With a shift west in the UKMET, I wonder what the euro will do. Will it give into the GFS?

[StPeteMike]

I’m just having flash backs to when almost all models were off on the timing and strength of the trough that picked up Charley. I think the models might be having the same issue here and timing is off.

[SunnyThoughts]

FV3- GFS around Panama City at hour 60 950 mb

[Dean4Storms]

UKMET is in:

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46

well luckily the NHC is only following the UKMET for track and not intensity lol..

a modest 941 mb lol

Furthest West the UK ever gets Michael is 86.1W..... Hmmm

[chaser1]

FV3-GFS looks to be about 1 degree to the southeast (a hair slower and to the east), from it's 18Z run. Practically the same however about 4 MB stronger

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF is running, lets see if we have a cat 4 again

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF is running, lets see if we have a cat 4 again

technically the UKMET is a cat 4 as well pressure wise.

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF is running, lets see if we have a cat 4 again

technically the UKMET is a cat 4 as well pressure wise.

Yeah I saw that as well. We shall see

[chaser1]

I can't but help but think that most models have been - and are too fast with Michael northward track. I'm looking at just about every different satellite resolution and I just can't seem to make an argument for much northward motion yet. Meanwhile, the GFS and FV3 all bring Michael into the S.E. Gulf tomm. at about 18Z. It'll be very interesting to see where the EURO initializes Michael and whether it's track is further to the east (which i'd expect). I'm equally interested in whether it continues to be slower in bringing Michael to landfall. Speed wise, this seems to make a bit more sense to me. Whether or not it will translate to a track that is adjusted a bit more eastward remains to be seen. I would think it would.