ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[djones65]

Trust the NHC! They are the very best at what they do! Hands down. They are predicting a category 2 hurricane with at least 100 mph winds to make landfall currently. As explained in the discussion, the 85 mph winds indicated while the center was onshore does not imply they expect weakening. In fact, it could even be higher before landfall. So prepare for at least an 85 knot or 100 mph hurricane!!

[Rail Dawg]

I agree with your point. My very amateur analysis is that models are generally good at forecasting storm tracks (some better than others) but often miss on storm intensity. That being said, what is your take on Michael’s intensity as it approaches the CONUS?

Good question.

Before we had all the modern technology we had to use our gut feeling and that worked more often than not.

My gut feeling is a major hurricane.

[txwatcher91]

Trust the NHC! They are the very best at what they do! Hands down. They are predicting a category 2 hurricane with at least 100 mph winds to make landfall currently. As explained in the discussion, the 85 mph winds indicated while the center was onshore does not imply they expect weakening. In fact, it could even be higher before landfall. So prepare for at least an 85 knot or 100 mph hurricane!!

While they are the best at what they do they also aren’t perfect. With Florence they forecasted a category 4 landfall for days yet it weakened significantly prior to landfall and was a cat 2 coming in. Intensity is one of the hardest aspects of hurricane forecasting.

[kthmcc7319]

I agree with your point. My very amateur analysis is that models are generally good at forecasting storm tracks (some better than others) but often miss on storm intensity. That being said, what is your take on Michael’s intensity as it approaches the CONUS?

Good question.

Before we had all the modern technology we had to use our gut feeling and that worked more often than not.

My gut feeling is a major hurricane.

Thanks for the reply.

[meriland29]

Cheese and crackers, I have been gone for 7 hrs and its already forecasted to get to 100mph and is already almost a cat 1? What else did I miss? How is Michael looking?

[FLeastcoast]

FWIW I was checking out the weather forecasts for areas around me and saw that now Starke FL is forecast to have possible hurricane conditions on Thursday night. Starke is pretty far inland for that kind of forecast..makes me think that maybe the next NHC will show a stronger Hurricane...I sure hope not though. EDITED to add..I am not any sort of expert on this subject

[northjaxpro]

Jax NWS mets are currently forecasting possible hurricane conditions for Jax metro Wednesday evening into estly Thursday morning. This timeframe definitely could change depending on the forward motion of Michael and how quickly the NE turn occurs.

[FLeastcoast]

Jax NWS mets are currently forecasting possible hurricane conditions for Jax metro Wednesday evening into estly Thursday morning. This timeframe definitely could change depending on the forward motion of Michael and how quickly the NE turn occurs.

That is WEIRD. Why would Starke show those conditions on Thursday night?? It should hit Starke before Jax....any thoughts??

[Hurricaneman]

What a ridiculous argument? SMH
Seriously? Florence was obviously a strong category 4 storm. And thank God it weakened to an arguably category 1/2?
so that is your basis for discounting the NHC?
C'mon Man!!!! SMH!!!

I’m not discounting them. I said they aren’t perfect. No one is, and intensity forecasting is one of the hardest aspects of tropical systems to accurately predict especially when wind shear is involved or close by.

Shear has also known to cause some complications with track with center relocations and hoping this isn’t the case like with Debby in 2012 where it kept relocating its center and in doing so went against all the most of the models

[northjaxpro]

FWIW I was checking out the weather forecasts for areas around me and saw that now Starke FL is forecast to have possible hurricane conditions on Thursday night. Starke is pretty far inland for that kind of forecast..makes me think that maybe the next NHC will show a stronger Hurricane...I sure hope not though. EDITED to add..I am not any sort of expert on this subject

This is based on intensifying hurricane at landfall. Worst case scensrio Michael has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane at landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

I agree with your point. My very amateur analysis is that models are generally good at forecasting storm tracks (some better than others) but often miss on storm intensity. That being said, what is your take on Michael’s intensity as it approaches the CONUS?

Good question.

Before we had all the modern technology we had to use our gut feeling and that worked more often than not.

My gut feeling is a major hurricane.

My gut is telling me the same thing. I feel like when it hits that Rita , wilma, katrina area it could bomb out. Sheer is ever moving and this storm is going through the same spot all other majors have made their names.

[stormhunter7]

any updates from recon? seems hasn't updated in 30 minutes, just as they got to the channel?

[northjaxpro]

Jax NWS mets are currently forecasting possible hurricane conditions for Jax metro Wednesday evening into estly Thursday morning. This timeframe definitely could change depending on the forward motion of Michael and how quickly the NE turn occurs.

That is WEIRD. Why would Starke show those conditions on Thursday night?? It should hit Starke before Jax....any thoughts??

Starke would be a bit closer to the center initially as it passes through. However, it also depends on the scope of the windfield of the cyclone. The severity of the winds depenfs just how intense Mchael will become.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Forgive me if this seems a bit selfish, but as someone who is currently living through recovery from Florence, I am seeing the NHC call for a tropical storm over my house at the end of the week. As I look out my window, and see the moon reflect off of a pond in the lots across the street from my house, that was not a pond before Florence, I wonder, if a tropical storm Michael will flood my house that a cat 1/2 Florence couldn't? I also wonder if the only dirt road that keeps me and a couple thousand other people connected to the rest of the world, because of the washed out roads due to the dams breaking (Boiling Spring Lakes), will survive tropical storm force rains and winds.

[JaxGator]

FWIW I was checking out the weather forecasts for areas around me and saw that now Starke FL is forecast to have possible hurricane conditions on Thursday night. Starke is pretty far inland for that kind of forecast..makes me think that maybe the next NHC will show a stronger Hurricane...I sure hope not though. EDITED to add..I am not any sort of expert on this subject

This is based on intensifying hurricane at landfall. Worst case scensrio Michael has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane at landfall.

Hey northjaxpro, I've been trying to find NWS disscusion on Michael on their website, but I can't find it yet. You don't mind providing a link?

[FLeastcoast]

Forgive me if this seems a bit selfish, but as someone who is currently living through recovery from Florence, I am seeing the NHC call for a tropical storm over my house at the end of the week. As I look out my window, and see the moon reflect off of a pond in the lots across the street from my house, that was not a pond before Florence, I wonder, if a tropical storm Michael will flood my house that a cat 1/2 Florence couldn't? I also wonder if the only dirt road that keeps me and a couple thousand other people connected to the rest of the world, because of the washed out roads due to the dams breaking (Boiling Spring Lakes), will survive tropical storm force rains and winds.

I am sorry. I sure hope it stays away from you guys there in the Carolinas!

[tomatkins]

Trust the NHC! They are the very best at what they do! Hands down. They are predicting a category 2 hurricane with at least 100 mph winds to make landfall currently. As explained in the discussion, the 85 mph winds indicated while the center was onshore does not imply they expect weakening. In fact, it could even be higher before landfall. So prepare for at least an 85 knot or 100 mph hurricane!!

While they are the best at what they do they also aren’t perfect. With Florence they forecasted a category 4 landfall for days yet it weakened significantly prior to landfall and was a cat 2 coming in. Intensity is one of the hardest aspects of hurricane forecasting.

On the other hand - they could also be wrong on the low side.

[FLeastcoast]

Hey northjaxpro, I've been trying to find NWS disscusion on Michael on their website, but I can't find it yet. You don't mind providing a link?[/quote]


Is this what you are looking for? https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2101.shtml?

[HDGator]

Forgive me if this seems a bit selfish, but as someone who is currently living through recovery from Florence, I am seeing the NHC call for a tropical storm over my house at the end of the week. As I look out my window, and see the moon reflect off of a pond in the lots across the street from my house, that was not a pond before Florence, I wonder, if a tropical storm Michael will flood my house that a cat 1/2 Florence couldn't? I also wonder if the only dirt road that keeps me and a couple thousand other people connected to the rest of the world, because of the washed out roads due to the dams breaking (Boiling Spring Lakes), will survive tropical storm force rains and winds.

You guys have gone through a lot with Florence. My prayers are with you.
The one good thing is that Michael should be a fast mover compared to Florence. I hope you don't see more than a few inches of rain but even that may be a lot for you to handle now.
Take care!

[JaxGator]

Hey northjaxpro, I've been trying to find NWS disscusion on Michael on their website, but I can't find it yet. You don't mind providing a link?

Is this what you are looking for? https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2101.shtml?[/quote]

No, that's the National Hurricane Center discussion, but thank you anyway. I was looking for the National Weather Service Jax update.